A major tornado outbreak occurred across the Great Plains and Mid-South regions of the United States from May 18 to May 21, 2025. This event follows another tornado outbreak that occurred just days prior in the Ohio Valley. On May 18, a very narrow but intense EF3 tornado inflicted severe tree damage near Arnett, an EF3 tornado caused severe damage in the town of Grinnell, Kansas across its long path, while an EF1 tornado caused four injuries when it struck Gordon, Texas. After dark, a powerful, cyclic supercell developed in south-central Kansas, eventually producing a long family of five EF3 tornadoes. Two of these prompted tornado emergencies: one as it approached the towns of Greensburg and Brenham, and another that directly hit the small town of Plevna.
Tornado activity shifted towards the Southeast by May 20, and in the evening, another tornado emergency was issued for an EF2 tornado that went through Madison, Alabama, dissipating just before reaching Huntsville. Scattered tornado activity continued into the following day before the outbreak came to an end. No fatalities occurred as a result of the outbreak, although at least 12 were injured. The outbreak caused $2.6 billion (2025 USD) in damages.
Meteorological synopsis May 18 Forecast A deep upper-level trough across the western U.S. set the stage for the beginning of the multi-day outbreak on May 18. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspread the central and southern Plains, with 500 mb winds of 60–70 knots (69-81 mph) moving over a destabilizing warm sector. At the surface, a sharpening dryline extended from southeastern Colorado into the eastern Texas Panhandle, while a retreating warm front was draped across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This front separated very moist low-level air to the south from drier and cooler air to the north, and it helped focus the afternoon and evening severe threat. Surface dew points surged into the upper 60s and low 70s°F (18 to 23°C), and mixed-layer CAPE (MLCAPE) values reached 3000–4500 J/kg in parts of western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas.
Forecast models and observed soundings indicated a strongly sheared environment, with enlarged hodographs near the warm front and low-level jet intensification expected during the evening. Effective bulk shear of 50–65 knots (58-75 mph) and SRH values over 300 m2/s² in localized areas created a highly favorable setup for tornadic supercells. The greatest risk was forecast in a corridor from the eastern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma and into southern Kansas, especially near the triple point and warm front intersection. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability in place, large to very large hail (potentially 2–4 inches in diameter) was also a significant concern with any sustained supercells. The SPC issued a Moderate Risk for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, including a 15% hatched area (EF2+) for tornadoes and very large hail.
By mid- to late afternoon, isolated supercells were expected to initiate near the triple point in southwestern Kansas and farther south along the dryline in western Oklahoma. Storms were forecast to rapidly become severe, with early development possibly influenced by convective inhibition but then quickly intensifying with loss of the cap. Forecast guidance highlighted the potential for one or more discrete supercells to persist into the evening, producing significant hail and strong tornadoes, particularly in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. As evening progressed, upscale growth into clusters was anticipated farther south into northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, with increasing wind potential and some continuation of the tornado threat into nighttime.
May 19 Forecast The second and most expansive day of the outbreak featured a high-end severe weather setup across the southern Plains and Ozarks. A negatively tilted shortwave trough and ejecting upper-level low moved into the central Plains, strengthening upper-level winds and contributing to deep-layer ascent. At the surface, a diffuse low over northern Oklahoma deepened, enhancing convergence along a sharpening dryline that extended through central Oklahoma into central Texas. A warm front also lifted northward across Kansas and Missouri, with multiple outflow boundaries draped across Oklahoma and Arkansas from prior convection. A broad warm sector featured surface dew points in the 70–73°F (21-23°C) range and strong heating, resulting in mixed-layer CAPE of 3000–5000 J/kg across much of the region.Wind profiles across the area were extremely favorable for tornadic supercells. Southeasterly surface winds backed into 50–70 kt (58-81 mph) southwesterly flow aloft, producing long, curved hodographs and effective bulk shear of 45–60 kt (52-69 mph) across the warm sector. Effective SRH increased through the afternoon as a 40–50 kt (46-58 mph) low-level jet developed from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and southern Missouri. Forecasters at the SPC emphasized that any discrete storm in this environment could produce strong tornadoes, particularly near intersecting boundaries or in regions with minimal convective interference. A Moderate Risk was issued across southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and portions of Missouri and Arkansas, with a 15% hatched tornado risk and a significant wind threat due to potential upscale growth.
Storms were expected to initiate by early afternoon in southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, aided by an approaching shortwave and lingering boundaries. Additional initiation was forecast along the dryline near the I-35 corridor from Oklahoma City to Dallas by mid- to late afternoon. Early storm mode was expected to be discrete, with the potential for long-track tornadic supercells across parts of eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and into the Ozarks. As multiple storms developed and interacted, upscale growth into bowing segments or clusters was anticipated, especially across southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas during the evening hours. This led to a growing concern for widespread damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes into the night.
May 20 Forecast On May 20, the severe threat shifted east into the Mid-South, as a broad upper-level trough progressed into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Strong mid-level and upper-level flow remained in place across the region, with 500 mb winds of 60–70 kt (69-81 mph) overspreading Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. At the surface, a low pressure center tracked from the Missouri/Illinois region into Indiana, with a trailing cold front pushing through Arkansas and western Tennessee. Rich low-level moisture remained entrenched across the Southeast, with dew points in the low 70s°F (20s°C) and MLCAPE of 2000–3000 J/kg, particularly from northern Mississippi and Alabama into Tennessee and Kentucky.
A morning QLCS moved east across the Tennessee Valley, potentially limiting destabilization in some areas, but clearing behind this line allowed for rapid recovery of instability. A strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet of 40–50 kt (46-58 mph) developed by afternoon from Mississippi into Kentucky, yielding large, looping hodographs supportive of tornadic supercells. The SPC issued an Enhanced Risk across much of Tennessee, northern Alabama, and southern Kentucky, including a 10% hatched tornado area to highlight the potential for a few strong tornadoes, particularly with discrete supercells ahead of the front or along remnant boundaries. Forecast soundings in the region showed minimal inhibition and favorable shear for rotating storms.
By mid-afternoon, additional storm development was expected near the front in northern Mississippi, western Alabama, and Tennessee, with some storms remaining semi-discrete or forming embedded supercells within clusters. Large hail and damaging winds were forecast alongside the tornado threat, especially where boundary interactions or prefrontal convergence zones focused development. The environment favored at least a few supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes, particularly before upscale growth. Into the evening, storms were expected to organize into clusters and lines moving into the southern Appalachians and Georgia, with damaging winds becoming the dominant threat but an ongoing tornado risk in areas with sufficient instability and shear.
Confirmed tornadoes
Grinnell, Kansas
This intense tornado touched down in Gove County south of Grinnell at 6:32 pm CDT. Upon touching down, the tornado moved just east of due north and struck a farm at EF1 intensity, pushing a grain bin a half-inch inward, blowing and moving hay bales and two large green carts, blowing out the wall of a shed, destroying a chicken coop, spinning an antique cultivator around, and blowing out the windows of a home while knocking its chimney down onto the roof. It also leaned a power pole, and sheared the tops off of trees, which also had metal sheeting thrown into it. Turning north-northeastward, the tornado intensified to EF2 strength and snapped four wooden power poles along County Road 26. Further to the northeast, the tornado leaned four more power poles at EF1 intensity along County Road Y. At another farm on County Road Z, a home had roof shingles removed, wood paneling uplifted, and shattered windows. A tiny home nearby was destroyed, a large propane tank was taken off its concrete base and rolled up an embankment into a wheatfield, trees were uprooted, and tree limbs were snapped. The tornado then rolled some pivots before moving out over open farm fields towards Grinnell.
After crossing County Road CC, the tornado began to move more erratically northward and crossed I-70/US 40 west of the K-216 exit. Interstate signs were damaged, and several vehicles, including semi-trucks and car haulers, were thrown into the fields on the north side of the freeway. The tornado also downed or snapped at least 15 power lines along the interstate, prompting the Kansas Department of Transportation to close portions of the freeway in the area. The tornado then turned northeastward and then back north-northeastward and crossed Old Highway 40 at EF2 intensity, removing most of the roof off a house, destroying two metal buildings and a garage, and shredding, debarking, and knocking down pine and cedar trees. A combine was turned 90 degrees and a Dodge pickup truck was flipped into a tree line along with a debris from the metal buildings. An empty grain bin, metal debris, and a grain cart were thrown long distances and scattered across fields on the north side of the highway as well.
The tornado then struck Grinnell; it first impacted a football field on the south side of the town, destroying the buildings, nine power/light poles, bleachers, and scoreboard. It then moved into Grinnell along Harrison Street, pushing multiple homes off their foundations, including some that collapsed, leveling other homes, Quonset hut outbuildings, and other outbuildings. Additional homes had roofs partially to completely removed and exterior walls knocked, a church lost a large section of its roof, an elementary school suffered roof damage, many vehicles and headstones at a cemetery were damaged, power poles were snapped, and trees were snapped with some debarking noted. Most of the damage was rated EF2 due to the most of the structures being unanchored or poorly anchored, but two of the homes that had exterior walls knocked down were well-built and received low-end EF3 ratings. The tornado then departed Grinnell, tossing tree and structural debris in a wheatfield before dissipating north of the town at 7:02 pm CDT. It was on the ground for 30 minutes, traveled , had a peak width of , and injured two people.
Greensburg–Plevna, Kansas tornado family