Post-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election

The Australian Labor Party won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, winning 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition won 43 seats.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."Division Classifications , Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016. Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.

In the Opposition Seats table, blue is used for both the Liberal party and members of the LNP who caucus with the Liberal party room, while green is used for both the National party and members of the LNP who caucus with the National party room.

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster-style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin by which they are held on a two-candidate preferred (2CP) basis. That is also known as the swing that is required for the seat to change hands. With a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats changing hands can be predicted.

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Pendulum (2CP)

Government (94 seats)Marginal (22)BeanACTDavid SmithALP v IND0.34BullwinkelWATrish CookALP0.51FremantleWAJosh WilsonALP v IND0.69MenziesVicGabriel NgALP1.08PetrieQldEmma ComerALP1.17SolomonNTLuke GoslingALP1.31BendigoVicLisa ChestersALP v NAT1.40WillsVicPeter KhalilALP v GRN1.43FordeQldRowan HolzbergerALP1.77BanksNSWZhi SoonALP2.39DeakinVicMatt GreggALP2.82MooreWATom FrenchALP2.89MelbourneVicSarah WittyALP v GRN3.02HughesNSWDavid MoncrieffALP3.06AstonVicMary DoyleALP3.43McEwenVicRob MitchellALP4.76BonnerQldKara CookALP5.00CalwellVicBasem AbdoALP v IND5.08GilmoreNSWFiona PhillipsALP5.13ChisholmVicCarina GarlandALP5.70BlairQldShayne NeumannALP5.71DicksonQldAli FranceALP5.99Fairly safe (24)LeichhardtQldMatt SmithALP6.06WhitlamNSWCarol BerryALP6.25PearceWATracey RobertsALP6.44SturtSAClaire ClutterhamALP6.62WerriwaNSWAnne StanleyALP6.77PatersonNSWMeryl SwansonALP6.89TangneyWASam LimALP6.99DunkleyVicJodie BelyeaALP7.08BraddonTasAnne UrquhartALP7.20Eden-MonaroNSWKristy McBainALP7.21HawkeVicSam RaeALP7.63MacquarieNSWSusan TemplemanALP7.71FranklinTasJulie CollinsALP v IND7.78BassTasJess TeesdaleALP8.01CorangamiteVicLibby CokerALP8.05LingiariNTMarion ScrymgourALP8.13BrisbaneQldMadonna JarrettALP8.96McMahonNSWChris BowenALP9.02HunterNSWDaniel RepacholiALP v ONP9.04FraserVicDaniel MulinoALP v GRN9.23BennelongNSWJerome LaxaleALP9.26RobertsonNSWGordon ReidALP9.37DobellNSWEmma McBrideALP9.43CooperVicGed KearneyALP v GRN9.72Safe (48)RichmondNSWJustine ElliotALP10.00GortonVicAlice Jordan-BairdALP10.28GriffithQldRenee CoffeyALP v GRN10.57BallaratVicCatherine KingALP10.66BoothbySALouise Miller-FrostALP11.10ShortlandNSWPat ConroyALP11.51LyonsTasRebecca WhiteALP11.58MacnamaraVicJosh BurnsALP11.80ReidNSWSally SitouALP12.01ParramattaNSWAndrew CharltonALP12.55MaribyrnongVicJo BriskeyALP12.65JagajagaVicKate ThwaitesALP12.88LalorVicJoanne RyanALP13.21CorioVicRichard MarlesALP13.23CowanWAAnne AlyALP13.63GreenwayNSWMichelle RowlandALP13.76SwanWAZaneta MascarenhasALP13.99HoltVicCassandra FernandoALP14.03ScullinVicAndrew GilesALP14.29IsaacsVicMark DreyfusALP14.34LilleyQldAnika WellsALP14.52BruceVicJulian HillALP14.62MakinSATony ZappiaALP14.66GellibrandVicTim WattsALP15.10SpenceSAMatt BurnellALP15.34RankinQldJim ChalmersALP15.55MacarthurNSWMike FreelanderALP15.61BurtWAMatt KeoghALP15.71NewcastleNSWSharon ClaydonALP v GRN15.80HasluckWATania LawrenceALP15.97BartonNSWAsh AmbihaipaharALP16.00MoretonQldJulie-Ann CampbellALP16.09HindmarshSAMark ButlerALP16.35PerthWAPatrick GormanALP16.51WatsonNSWTony BurkeALP v IND16.52HothamVicClare O'NeilALP16.86GrayndlerNSWAnthony AlbaneseALP v GRN16.86BrandWAMadeleine KingALP16.92Kingsford SmithNSWMatt ThistlethwaiteALP17.19CunninghamNSWAlison ByrnesALP17.52AdelaideSASteve GeorganasALP19.07OxleyQldMilton DickALP19.19CanberraACTAlicia PayneALP v GRN19.52ChifleyNSWEd HusicALP19.83Very safe (4)KingstonSAAmanda RishworthALP20.74SydneyNSWTanya PlibersekALP v GRN20.95BlaxlandNSWJason ClareALP21.90FennerACTAndrew LeighALP22.08

Opposition (43 seats) Marginal (18)GoldsteinVicTim WilsonLIB v IND0.08LongmanQldTerry YoungLNP0.11BerowraNSWJulian LeeserLIB1.63La TrobeVicJason WoodLIB2.06ForrestWABen SmallLIB2.24FlindersVicZoe McKenzieLIB v IND2.29BowmanQldHenry PikeLNP2.43CowperNSWPat ConaghanNAT v IND2.54LindsayNSWMelissa McIntoshLIB2.78CaseyVicAaron VioliLIB2.89FairfaxQldTed O'BrienLNP3.23WannonVicDan TehanLIB v IND3.27MitchellNSWAlex HawkeLIB3.81MonashVicMary AldredLIB4.09McPhersonQldLeon RebelloLNP4.44GreySATom VenningLIB4.64GroomQldGarth HamiltonLNP v IND5.67CapricorniaQldMichelle LandryLNP5.83Fairly safe (12)FisherQldAndrew WallaceLNP6.03FarrerNSWSussan LeyLIB v IND6.19HinklerQldDavid BattLNP6.26CanningWAAndrew HastieLIB6.55FaddenQldCameron CaldwellLNP6.88CookNSWSimon KennedyLIB7.19Wide BayQldLlew O'BrienLNP7.63WrightQldScott BuchholzLNP7.98HumeNSWAngus TaylorLIB8.06MoncrieffQldAngie BellLNP8.80PageNSWKevin HoganNAT9.29LyneNSWAlison PenfoldNAT9.78Safe (13)DurackWAMelissa PriceLIB10.15FlynnQldColin BoyceLNP10.24DawsonQldAndrew WillcoxLNP11.83RiverinaNSWMichael McCormackNAT12.62ParkesNSWJamie ChaffeyNAT12.97BarkerSATony PasinLIB12.98O'ConnorWARick WilsonLIB13.28HerbertQldPhillip ThompsonLNP13.41NichollsVicSam BirrellNAT 14.38New EnglandNSWBarnaby JoyceNAT17.06MalleeVicAnne WebsterNAT19.04GippslandVicDarren ChesterNAT19.36MaranoaQldDavid LittleproudLNP v ONP20.10

Crossbench (13 seats)Marginal (6)BradfieldNSWNicolette BoeleIND v LIB0.01KooyongVicMonique RyanIND v LIB0.67FowlerNSWDai LeIND v ALP2.68RyanQldElizabeth Watson-BrownGRN v LNP3.27CurtinWAKate ChaneyIND v LIB3.27MackellarNSWSophie ScampsIND v LIB5.66Fairly safe (3)CalareNSWAndrew GeeIND v NAT6.78WentworthNSWAllegra SpenderIND v LIB8.34IndiVicHelen HainesIND v LIB8.64Safe (4)WarringahNSWZali SteggallIND v LIB11.20MayoSARebekha SharkieCA v ALP14.89KennedyQldBob KatterKAP v LNP15.75ClarkTasAndrew WilkieIND v ALP20.38

Analysis Labor increased its majority significantly, securing 94 seats, up from 77 in 2022. The Coalition dropped to 43 seats, continuing its downward trend. The crossbench decreased slightly to 13 seats, down from 16, despite maintaining influence in key electorates.

Pendulum (2PP) Separate to the two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote, the two-party preferred (2PP) vote is calculated in all seats. In "non-classic seats" (seats where a major party fails to reach the 2CP count of which there were 35 at this election), the 2PP figure differs to the 2CP figure (in classic seats, the 2CP and 2PP are the same). The 2PP figures in the non-classic seats allow for the calculation of the nationwide 2PP vote.

Labor (100 seats)MarginalBullwinkelWATrish CookALP0.51WentworthNSWAllegra Spender (IND)ALP0.56MenziesVicGabriel NgALP1.08PetrieQldEmma ComerALP1.17SolomonNTLuke GoslingALP1.31BendigoVicLisa ChestersALP1.40FordeQldRowan HolzbergerALP1.77BanksNSWZhi SoonALP2.39DeakinVicMatt GreggALP2.82MooreWATom FrenchALP2.89HughesNSWDavid MoncrieffALP3.06AstonVicMary DoyleALP3.43WarringahNSWZali Steggall (IND)ALP4.51McEwenVicRob MitchellALP4.76MayoSARebekha Sharkie (CA)ALP4.98BonnerQldKara CookALP5.00GilmoreNSWFiona PhillipsALP5.13ChisholmVicCarina GarlandALP5.70BlairQldShayne NeumannALP5.71DicksonQldAli FranceALP5.99Fairly safeLeichhardtQldMatt SmithALP6.06WhitlamNSWCarol BerryALP6.25PearceWATracey RobertsALP6.44SturtSAClaire ClutterhamALP6.62WerriwaNSWAnne StanleyALP6.77PatersonNSWMeryl SwansonALP6.89TangneyWASam LimALP6.99DunkleyVicJodie BelyeaALP7.08BraddonTasAnne UrquhartALP7.20Eden-MonaroNSWKristy McBainALP7.21HawkeVicSam RaeALP7.63MacquarieNSWSusan TemplemanALP7.71RyanQldElizabeth Watson-Brown (GRN)ALP7.82BassTasJess TeesdaleALP8.01CorangamiteVicLibby CokerALP8.05LingiariNTMarion ScrymgourALP8.13BrisbaneQldMadonna JarrettALP8.96McMahonNSWChris BowenALP9.02BennelongNSWJerome LaxaleALP9.26RobertsonNSWGordon ReidALP9.37DobellNSWEmma McBrideALP9.43HunterNSWDaniel RepacholiALP9.48SafeRichmondNSWJustine ElliotALP10.00GortonVicAlice Jordan-BairdALP10.28BallaratVicCatherine KingALP10.66BoothbySALouise Miller-FrostALP11.10ShortlandNSWPat ConroyALP11.51LyonsTasRebecca WhiteALP11.58MacnamaraVicJosh BurnsALP11.80ReidNSWSally SitouALP12.01ParramattaNSWAndrew CharltonALP12.55MaribyrnongVicJo BriskeyALP12.65JagajagaVicKate ThwaitesALP12.88LalorVicJoanne RyanALP13.21CorioVicRichard MarlesALP13.23CowanWAAnne AlyALP13.63GreenwayNSWMichelle RowlandALP13.76SwanWAZaneta MascarenhasALP13.99HoltVicCassandra FernandoALP14.03ScullinVicAndrew GilesALP14.29IsaacsVicMark DreyfusALP14.34LilleyQldAnika WellsALP14.52BruceVicJulian HillALP14.62MakinSATony ZappiaALP14.66CalwellVicBasem AbdoALP14.71GellibrandVicTim WattsALP15.10SpenceSAMatt BurnellALP15.34RankinQldJim ChalmersALP15.55MacarthurNSWMike FreelanderALP15.61BurtWAMatt KeoghALP15.71GriffithQldRenee CoffeyALP15.94HasluckWATania LawrenceALP15.97BartonNSWAsh AmbihaipaharALP16.00MoretonQldJulie-Ann CampbellALP16.09HindmarshSAMark ButlerALP16.35PerthWAPatrick GormanALP16.51HothamVicClare O'NeilALP16.86BrandWAMadeleine KingALP16.92Kingsford SmithNSWMatt ThistlethwaiteALP17.19CunninghamNSWAlison ByrnesALP17.52FowlerNSWDai Le (IND)ALP18.19FremantleWAJosh WilsonALP18.68AdelaideSASteve GeorganasALP19.07OxleyQldMilton DickALP19.19BeanACTDavid SmithALP19.29FranklinTasJulie CollinsALP19.44ChifleyNSWEd HusicALP19.83KingstonSAAmanda RishworthALP20.74NewcastleNSWSharon ClaydonALP20.79ClarkTasAndrew Wilkie (IND)ALP20.89BlaxlandNSWJason ClareALP21.90FraserVicDaniel MulinoALP22.02FennerACTAndrew LeighALP22.08WatsonNSWTony BurkeALP22.86MelbourneVicSarah WittyALP23.97CanberraACTAlicia PayneALP26.42SydneyNSWTanya PlibersekALP28.08CooperVicGed KearneyALP28.53GrayndlerNSWAnthony AlbaneseALP30.18WillsVicPeter KhalilALP30.86