The 2002 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 5, 2002, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. The winners served in the 104th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census for the first time. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995.
Predictions on overall outcome Sabato's Crystal Ball In November 2002, Sabato projected the Democrats would take 208 seats, and the Republicans 226. New York Times In October 2002, New York Times projected the Democrats would take 201 seats, the Republicans 213, and there were 21 tossups.
Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain
The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races that were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.
DistrictIncumbent Previousresult Sabato's Crystal Ball New York Times Winner Bob Riley (R) 87.46% R Mike Rogers (R) (New seat) Rick Renzi (R) Gary Condit (D) 67.10% D Dennis Cardoza (D) Bob Schaffer (R) 80.89% R Marilyn Musgrave (R) (New seat) Bob Beauprez (R) Rob Simmons (R) 50.63% R Rob Simmons (R) Jim Maloney (D) 53.62% D Nancy Johnson (R) Karen Thurman (D) 64.27% D Ginny Brown-Waite (R) John Mica (R) 63.21% R John Mica (R) Clay Shaw (R) 50.14% R Clay Shaw (R) (New seat) Tom Feeney (R) Saxby Chambliss (R) 58.92% R Jim Marshall (D) (New seat) Phil Gingrey (R) (New seat) Max Burns (R) David D. Phelps (R) 64.56% D John Shimkus (R) Tim Roemer (D) 51.58% D Chris Chocola (R) Julia Carson (D) 58.51% D Julia Carson (D) Jim Nussle (R) 55.40% R Jim Nussle (R) Jim Leach (R) 61.83% R Jim Leach (R) Leonard Boswell (D) 62.83% D Leonard Boswell (D) Tom Latham (R) 68.77% R Tom Latham (R) Jim Ryun (R) 67.39% R Jim Ryun (R) Dennis Moore (D) 50.05% D Dennis Moore (D) Anne Northup (R) 52.87% R Anne Northup (R) Ken Lucas (D) 55.26% D Ken Lucas (D) John Cooksey (R) 69.08% R Rodney Alexander (D) John Baldacci (D) 73.43% D Mike Michaud (D) Robert Ehrlich (R) 68.64% R Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Connie Morella (R) 52.05% R Chris Van Hollen (D) David Bonior (D) 64.41% D Candice Miller (R) (New seat) Thad McCotter (R) Bill Luther (D) 49.56% D John Kline (R) Mark Kennedy (R) 48.10% R Mark Kennedy (R) Chip Pickering (R) 73.16% R Chip Pickering (R) (New seat) Jon Porter (R) John E. Sununu (R) 52.90% R Jeb Bradley (R) Charlie Bass (R) 56.23% R Charlie Bass (R) Marge Roukema (R) 65.37% R Scott Garrett (R) Heather Wilson (R) 50.34% R Heather Wilson (R) Joe Skeen (R) 58.11% R Steve Pearce (R) Felix Grucci (R) 55.52% R Tim Bishop (D) Robin Hayes (R) 55.02% R Robin Hayes (R) Earl Pomeroy (D) 52.93% D Earl Pomeroy (D) Tony P. Hall (D) 82.96% D Mike Turner (R) (Vacant) Tim Ryan (D) J.C. Watts (R) 64.89% R Tom Cole (R) (New Seat) Jim Gerlach (R) Pat Toomey (R) 53.25% R Pat Toomey (R) George Gekas (R) 71.52% R Tim Holden (D) John Thune (R) 73.52% R Bill Janklow (R) Van Hilleary (R) 65.76% R Lincoln Davis (D) (New Seat) Jeb Hensarling (R) Henry Bonilla (R) 59.32% R Henry Bonilla (R) Jim Matheson (D) 55.86% D Jim Matheson (D) Rick Larsen (D) 50.01% D Rick Larsen (D) Shelley Moore Capito (R) 48.49% R Shelley Moore Capito (R) Overall | | R - 226D - 208 | | R - 213D - 201 21 tossups | | R - 229D - 205
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