In the run up to the 2025 Ecuadorian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Ecuador. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from 2024, almost a year into incumbent President Daniel Noboa's term to the day the run-off election, which was held on 13 April 2025. The data range also includes opinion polls conducted prior to the first round of voting, which was held 9 February 2025 and before official candidates were finalized.

Opinion polling Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

Run-off

DatePolling sourceSample sizeMarginof error (+/-)Daniel Noboa(ADN)Luisa González(RC)NullBlankUndecidedLead3 Apr 2025Comunicaliza4,7631.42%41.5%41.1%8.0%9.5%0.43 Apr 2025Telcodata6,1343%49.8%50.2%–0.43 Apr 2025Tino Electoral1,5002%52.4%45.1%2.5%7.31 Apr 2025TresPuntoZero1,1802.9%45.1%50.6%4.1%0.2%5.525–30 Mar 2025Pedro Cango5,4221.5%48.1%51.9%–3.8 28 Mar 2025 Áltica 700 3.7%42.3%44.1%6.4%7.2%1.827 Mar 2025MR Analitica6,0241.5%42.98%50.39%6.63%–7.4125 Mar 2025Tino Electoral8002%51.0%45.9%3.1%5.124 Mar 2025Negocios y Estrategias3,0003%48.55%51.45%–2.923 Mar 2025Run-off debate3–20 Mar 2025MR Analitica15,0031.5% 43.10%49.97%6.92% 6.8719 Mar 2025Tino Electoral1,5002%49.1%46.2%4.7%2.99–12 Mar 2025TresPuntoZero1,5002.5% 45.2%52.9%0.3% 1.6%7.726 Feb–3 Mar 2025Negocios y Estrategias1,8002.3%44.78%46.78%8.44% 2.0025 Feb–2 Mar 2025MR Analiticahttps://x.com/RComunitariosEc/status/1897379098336616667?t=7LS0TnVk5s43en87ubO81Q&s=085,1431.5%43.79%49.75%6.46%– 5.9614–22 Feb 2025MR Analítica10,0051.5%43.24%47.91% 8.85%– 4.6711–13 Feb 2025TresPuntoZero1,0003.2%46.5%50.6% 1.7%1.2%4.19 Feb 2025First round24 Jan 2025Comunicaliza5,2171.36%40.5%35.2%13.6%10.7%5.322 Jan 2025Comunicaliza2,7821.86%40.4%35.6%13.3%10.8%4.816 Jan 2025Politiks Studio1,2003.1%45%47%6%2%214 Jan 2025TresPuntoZero1,0503%43.0%51.0% 2.7%3.3%8.0

First round Opinion polls conducted since the 2023 election are listed below. Results for candidates in first place are in bold and have their party color as a background. Results for candidates who would make it to a second round (if the first-placed candidate would not reach either 50% or 40% with a 10-point lead) are also in bold.

DatePolling sourceSample sizeMarginof errorLuisa González(RC)Daniel Noboa(ADN)Leonidas Iza(MUPP)Henry Kronfle(PSC)Pedro Granja(PSE)Jimmy Jairala(MCD)Henry Cucalón(MC25)Carlos Rabascall(ID)Victor Araus(PID)Andrea González(PSP)Enrique Gómez(SUMA)(CREO)Jorge Escala(UP)Luis Tillería(Avanza)Juan Cueva'(AMIGO)()NullBlankUndecidedThe second round of the election between Luisa González and Daniel Noboa is scheduled for 13 April 2025.12 March 2025CNE Final Presidential results11,264,4350.03%44%44.17%18 Feb 2025Consejo Nacional Electoral Preliminary Results Available by 22 March 202543.97%44.17%5.25%0.72%0.53%0.4%0.36%0.22%0.25%2.69%0.18%0.26%0.4%0.32%0.17%0.12%6.8%2.16Nill9 Feb 2025 5 p.m. (ECT)Diego Tello Flores Official Exit Poll "on behalf of Estrategas" 28,2202.98%42.21%50.12%1.89%0.70%0.52%0.42%0.18%0.16%0.28%1.98%0.13%0.16%0.66%0.41%0.11%0.06%Nill30 Jan 2025Negocios y Estrategias2,0002.2%48.5%44.9%6.6%––44.9%41.6%2.0%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.0%2.3%0.0%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%7.4%30 Jan 2025Cedatos3,6502.2%32.2%48.6%27.6%41.4%1.1%0.6%1.4%1.7%0.3%0.6%0.8%6.4%0.0%1.0%0.3%1.5%0.9%0.4%9.3%2.4%2.5%26 Jan 2025Informe Confidencial2,6303%29%37%2%–4%–6%–12%5%34.9%44.6%2.4%–4.8%–7.2%––24 Jan 2025Ipsos2,0002.2%31.3%45.3%2.4%–1.9%–5.1%–6.3%2.9%34.6%50.0%2.6%–2.1%–5.7%––24 Jan 2025Communicaliza5,2171.36%32.0%38.1%2.1%0.2%1.0%0.8%0.3%0.4%0.2%4.3%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.7%0.1%0.1%7.6%11.5%39.5%47.1%2.5%–5.3%––22 Jan 2025Communicaliza2,7821.86%32.4%36.9%1.8%0.3%1.0%0.8%0.3%0.6%0.2%4.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%1.2%0.2%0.2%7.8%11.4%40.1%45.7%14.2%–22 Jan 2025MR Analitica2,010–42.20%32.42%4.88%1.05%4.46%1.57%0.73%0.88%0.07%4.72%0.37%0.14%3.15%0.72%1.15%0.05%–39.70%30.50%4.10%0.88%3.75%1.32%0.62%0.74%0.06%3.97%0.31%0.12%2.65%0.60%0.97%0.04%5.92–21 Jan 2025Negocios y Estrategias2,0002.2%41%36%4%1%1%1%1%1%0%4%0%1%0%0%0%0%9%–19 Jan 2025First round debate18 Jan 2025Cedatos3,6512.2%29.6%32.1%1.7%0.9%0.7%3.1%0.6%0.4%0.8%1.2%0.2%1.5%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.3%15.9%3.2%16.3%31.9%49.7%2.6%1.4%1.1%4.8%0.9%0.6%1.2%1.9%0.3%2.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.5%–16 Jan 2025MR Analitica3,9502.5%49.55%39.52%2.24%0.39%1.14%1.05%0.85%0.17%0.25%0.62%0.07%0.11%0.87%1.05%1.20%0.00%–43.09%34.37%1.82%0.31%0.92%0.85%0.69%0.14%0.21%0.50%0.06%0.09%0.71%0.85%0.97%0.00%13.04%–16 Jan 2025Politiks Studio1,2003.1%44%38%0%2%2%–1%0%1%0%1%0%–6%–14 Jan 2025Trespuntozero1,0503.0%48.0%40.4%1.4%0.1%1.6%1.1%0.2%0.9%0.1%0.6%1.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.7%0.00%–1.5%12 Jan 2025Informe Confidencial13,0003.0%32%37%3%2%–3%–13%7%–11 Jan 2025Comunicaliza5,2511.4%33.0%36.1%2.0%0.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%9.9%13.9%43.3%47.3%9.4%–8 Jan 2025Negocios y Estrategias1,3002.7%40%34%4%1%1%3%2%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%12%–29 Dec 2024Comunicaliza4,4851.5%29.3%32.9%2.5%0.6%1.0%1.1%1.0%1.1%0.5%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.2%8.9%17.8%22 Dec 2024MR Analitica9,0002.0%41.14%32.32%4.60%3.53%1.96%3.72%1.86%0.98%0.39%1.47%0.20%0.29%0.78%2.55%4.11%0.10%–35.56%27.24%3.98%3.05%1.69%3.22%1.61%0.85%0.34%1.27%0.17%0.25%0.68%2.20%3.56%0.08%13.55%20 Dec 2024Cedatos3,4442.4%32.5%48.0%2.3%1.6%0.3%4.8%0.3%0.5%1.5%2.1%0.6%4.2%0.6%–0.3%0.3%–20.1%29.7%1.4%1.0%0.2%3.0%0.2%0.3%0.9%1.3%0.4%2.6%0.4%–0.2%0.2%19.7%3.7%14.6%15 Dec 2024Comunicaliza4,4861.5%29.9%32.6%2.2%0.4%0.6%1.2%1.0%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.8%0.4%0.3%0.5%0.2%10.4%16.3%14 Dec 2024Bitar Consultores10,2690.03%40.28%38.05%3.21%10.38%0.76%1.81%0.59%0.51%0.86%0.64%0.57%0.87%0.38%0.33%0.62%0.12%–7 Dec 2024Áltica1,0003.1%45.5%39.1%4.2%0.4%1.5%2.2%1.1%–0.5%–4.5%0.6%0.4%––3 Dec 2024Tino Electoral4,000–32%36%7%–4%–13%8%–25 Nov 2024MR Analitica4,6672%43.17%29.2%4.70%1.42%2.25%3.53%2.21%0.56%0.60%1.11%0.31%0.32%0.75%2.61%4.05%0.02%–37.74%25.37%4.11%1.24%1.97%3.08%1.93%0.49%0.53%0.97%0.27%0.28%0.65%2.29%3.64%0.02%12.58%–24 Nov 2024Informe Confidencial2,9303%32%34%2%1%–4%–2%–15%6%–20 Nov 2024Negocios y Estrategias1,2502.8%45%36%2%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%0%0%–39%31%2%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%0%0%14%–12 Nov 2024Comunicaliza4,1961.51%28.8%28.9%2.3%0.6%0.6%1.4%0.3%0.7%0.9%0.6%–0.5%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%12.6%20.3%

Pre-candidates DatePolling sourceSample sizeMarginof errorDaniel Noboa(ADN)Luisa González(RC)Gustavo Jalkh(RC)(PSE)Leonidas Iza(MUPP)Jan Topić(SUMA)Pedro Freile(SUMA)Henry Kronfle(PSC)Carlos Rabascall(ID)Andrea González(PSP)Victor Araus(PID)Jorge Escala(UP)Henry Cucalón(MC25)José Serrano(MCD)Luis Tillería(Avanza)Bolívar Armijos(AMIGO)Cristina Reyes(Ind.)Diana Salazar(Ind.)OthersNullBlankUndecided27 Sep 2024CID Gallup1,2002.8%31%26%–––15%–1%––––2%–––––4%21%22 Sep 2024Informe Confidential––29%25%––3%7%–2%1%–––––––––6%17%10%24 Aug 2024Cedatos3,2383.1%48.6%27.6%–1.3%5.3%7.7%–1.6%1,5%0.9%0.9%0.2%1.1%0.3%1.1%–––2,0%–––19 Aug 2024Negocios y Estrategias––37%41%–1%2%8%–0%1%–––1%1%–––––9.9%–18 Aug 2024Communicaliza4,9711.39%32.4%25.4%–1.2%2.6%6.3%–1.4%0,8%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.5%2.2%0.4%–––0,9%9.9%14.3%5 Aug 2024Maluk Research4,0522.5%25.27%39.67%–3.86%4.45%–2.57%–1,83%2.50%–2.81%2.95%–6.48%––3.16%4.44%–––22.83%–26.93%5.75%5.83%–3.70%–4,41%3.07%–2.20%4.72%–12.60%––3.07%4.88%7.03%––17 Jul 2024Maluk Research4,7932.5%34.61%40.11%–3.90%4.07%––0.48% –3.10%–4.65%1.74% ––––1.94%5.39% – – –4 Jul 2024Cedatos3,8822.4%35.2%11.7%– –3.4%––4.0%–5.9%––7.0%–––––2.0%14.9%3.6%12.3%36.6% –3.80% – 3.5%–– 4.3% – 5.4%– – 7.6% ––– –– 11.4% 15.1% 4.4% 7.8%28 Jun 2024Maluk Research4,4122.5%32.49%39.63%–5.21%4.89%––1.16%–3.69%–1.04%–1.72%–––2.73%7.42%–––13 Jun 2024Maluk Research4,0122.5%32.37%43.22%–4.98%4.85%––1.02%–3.01%–1.18%0.92%––1.33%–1.10%6.03%–––30 May 2024Communicaliza––39.8%21.1%–1.0%2.3%––2.4%1.1%––––––0.5%0.8%–0.8%9.8%20.5%14 May 2024Maluk Research4,0122.5%29.91%47.75%–4.60%1.89%2.30%––2.79%0.95%–––––0.00%8.90%0.37%0.54%–––15 Apr 2024Maluk Research3,6352.5%30.31%39.12%–5.13%4.20%3.71%––3.69%1.68%–––––0.26%8.93%1.02%1.96%–––

See also 2025 Ecuadorian general election

References