45th Ontario general election

The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on April 11, 2030 unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Standings

|align=left|Doug Ford |80 |79

|align=left|Marit Stiles |27 |27

|align=left|John Fraser |14 |14

|align=left|Mike Schreiner |2 |2

| colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Independent |1 |2 |- |align=left colspan="3"|Total | align="right"|124 | align="right"|124

Timeline 2025 February 27: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario under Doug Ford wins a third majority government in the 44th Ontario general election. September 14: Bonnie Crombie announces intention to resign as Liberal leader following a disappointing result in a leadership review vote with 57% of support. She initially said she would remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor. September 20: Marit Stiles receives 68% support in a leadership review vote during the Ontario New Democratic Party's convention, vowing to remain as party leader.

2026

January 14: Bonnie Crombie resigns as Liberal leader. January 19: John Fraser is nominated as interim Liberal leader. January 22: Fraser is formally appointed as interim Liberal leader. February 3: Doly Begum resigns her seat to run for the federal Scarborough Southwest by-election. May 25: Caroline Mulroney announces her intention to resign as MPP on June 5 and retire from politics. July 17: Neil Lumsden announces his intention to resign as MPP on August 4 and retire from politics. September 3: The NDP's Fatima Shaban wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. September 3: The PC's Jeff Beattie wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. September 3: The PC's Susan Lahey wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.

Ridings The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,as a result of the recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election.

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation.

Date of the election Ontario repealed its fixed election date legislation on November 27, 2025.

Under Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms the Ontario legislature is automatically dissolved 5 years after the return of the writs for the previous general election. Polling day in Ontario elections is the 5th Thursday after the date of the writ.

The date fixed for the return of the writs in the 2025 general election was March 7, 2025, meaning that unless the legislature is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, and the latest an election could be held is April 11, 2030.

Seat changes + 44th Parliament of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2025–present)Party2025Gain/(loss) due topresent Resignationas MPP Resignationfrom caucus Expulsion Byelectiongain Byelectionhold80 (2) (1) 27927 (1) 12714 142 21 1 2Total 124 (3)– – 3124

+ Changes in seats held since February 27, 2025 Seat Before Change Date Member Party Reason Date Member PartySault Ste. MarieSeptember 22, 2025Chris ScottExpelled from caucus.Scarborough SouthwestFebruary 3, 2026Doly BegumResigned to run for the federal Liberal Party in the Scarborough Southwest by-electionSeptember 3, 2026Fatima ShabanYork—SimcoeJune 5, 2026Caroline MulroneyResignation from the legislature.September 3, 2026Susan LaheyHamilton East—Stoney CreekAugust 4, 2026Neil LumsdenResignation from the legislature.September 3, 2026Jeff Beattie

Opinion polls

Graphical Summary

Table of polls Polling firm Last dateof polling Source PC NDP Liberal Green OtherMargin of errorSample sizePolling typeLeadMainstreet ResearchSeptember 29, 202634272658±2.8%1,203IVR7Liaison Strategies September 19, 2026 40213423±2.5%1,600IVR6Abacus DataAugust 24, 202642173146±2.5%1,518Online11Liaison Strategies August 24, 2026 39203523±2.5%1,500IVR4Pallas DataAugust 9, 202637262935±2.9%1,105IVR8Liaison Strategies July 21, 2026 33243823±3.1%1,000IVR5EKOS July 16, 2026 32282659±2.5%1,512Telephone4Abacus DataJune 17, 202641193254±2.1%2,182Online9Liaison Strategies June 15, 2026 35223841±3.1%1,000IVR3Abacus DataMay 20, 202641173155±3.1%1,017Online10Liaison Strategies May 16, 2026 37203742±3.1%1,000IVR TieLegerMay 11, 2026 39173464±3.1%1,003Online5Mainstreet ResearchMay 7, 202635243165±3.2%910IVR4Liaison Strategies April 26, 202636203842±3.1%1,000IVR2Pallas DataApril 22, 202637243261±3.1%1,007IVR5Abacus DataApril 21, 202637173656±3.1%1,000Online1Pallas DataApril 8, 202640223162±3.0%1,084IVR9Abacus DataApril 6, 202639213155±2.09%2,185Online8Liaison Strategies March 29, 2026 39183653±3.1%1,000IVR3IpsosMarch 11, 202642183535±4.2%801Online7Abacus DataMarch 11, 202644163253±3.1%1,000Online12Liaison Strategies February 22, 2026 40173653±3.1%1,000IVR4Abacus DataFebruary 10, 202644163064±3.1%1,001Online14Pallas DataJanuary 24, 202643183054±3.1%1,015IVR13Liaison Strategies January 21, 2026 42173532±3.1%1,000IVR7Abacus DataJanuary 13, 202648192265±3.1%1,006Online26Liaison Strategies December 7, 2025 44163532±3.09%1,000IVR9Angus ReidDecember 1, 202541232844±3%723Online13Pallas DataNovember 15, 202545182863±3%1,077IVR17North PollNovember 7, 202546172944742Online17Abacus DataNovember 6, 202551192334±3.1%1,000Online28LegerOctober 20, 2025 44133273±3.1%1,052 Online12Liaison Strategies October 15, 2025 47153332±3.4%800IVR14Abacus DataOctober 15, 202551152554±3.1%1,000Online26Relay StrategiesOctober 13, 2025441729651,268Online15Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 18, 202548142935±3.2%958Online19Abacus DataSeptember 17, 202552122466±3.1%1,021Online28Angus ReidSeptember 5, 202545222546±3%935Online20Pallas DataSeptember 4, 202545172675±3.1%1,026IVR19Abacus DataAugust 19, 202553122753±3.04%1,037Online26Liaison Strategies August 14, 2025 44153533±3.4%800Telephone9Abacus DataJuly 15, 202550132863±3.1%1,000Online22Pallas DataJune 29, 202543212962±3%1,080IVR14Mainstreet ResearchJune 26, 202541173237±3.2%923Smart IVR9Abacus DataJune 5, 202549142854±3.1%1,000Online21LegerMay 25, 2025 45153253±3.1%1,025 Online13Liaison Strategies May 9, 2025 46133623±3.09%1,000 IVR10Campaign ResearchMarch 26, 2025 46182484±2.2%1,672Online222025 election 42.9718.5529.954.833.70 13.02

Notes

References

Polls

External links Elections Ontario

45th Ontario general election

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