The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. Government seats (52)MarginalPumicestoneAriana DoolanLNP0.4MiraniGlen KellyLNP1.0 v KAPCaloundraKendall MortonLNP1.8RockhamptonDonna KirklandLNP1.8CapalabaRussell FieldLNP1.9RedlandsRebecca YoungLNP1.9MulgraveTerry JamesLNP2.7NicklinMarty HuntLNP2.7MaryboroughJohn BarounisLNP2.8RedcliffeKerri-Anne DooleyLNP2.9ClayfieldTim NichollsLNP3.5Barron RiverBree JamesLNP3.7CookDavid KemptonLNP5.0EvertonTim ManderLNP5.3MoggillChristian RowanLNP5.6TownsvilleAdam BaillieLNP5.6Fairly safeHervey BayDavid LeeLNP8.4ChatsworthSteve MinnikinLNP8.5MundingburraJanelle PooleLNP9.2BuderimBrent MickelbergLNP9.3ThuringowaNatalie MarrLNP9.9SafeCoomeraMichael CrandonLNP10.0Glass HouseAndrew PowellLNP10.2MackayNigel DaltonLNP10.2KeppelNigel HuttonLNP10.5NinderryDan PurdieLNP10.5MaroochydoreFiona SimpsonLNP10.9SouthportRob MolhoekLNP11.1OodgerooAmanda StokerLNP11.8CurrumbinLaura GerberLNP12.3KawanaJarrod BleijieLNP12.7BurleighHermann VorsterLNP12.8TheodoreMark BoothmanLNP13.0Toowoomba SouthDavid JanetzkiLNP13.0Mermaid BeachRay StevensLNP13.1BonneySam O'ConnorLNP13.7MudgeerabaRos BatesLNP13.9GympieTony PerrettLNP14.8BurnettStephen BennettLNP15.4BurdekinDale LastLNP15.8Scenic RimJon KrauseLNP16.1Toowoomba NorthTrevor WattsLNP16.5WhitsundayAmanda CammLNP18.5Southern DownsJames ListerLNP18.6 v ONPLockyerJim McDonaldLNP19.2Very safeGregorySean DillonLNP21.0BroadwaterDavid CrisafulliLNP21.3NanangoDeb FrecklingtonLNP22.9Surfers ParadiseJohn-Paul LangbroekLNP23.1CallideBryson HeadLNP23.2CondaminePat WeirLNP23.6WarregoAnn LeahyLNP27.8

Opposition seats (36)MarginalAspleyBart MellishALP0.04GavenMeaghan ScanlonALP0.7Pine RiversNikki BoydALP0.7BundabergTom SmithALP1.5MacalisterMelissa McMahonALP1.9SpringwoodMick de BrenniALP2.1CairnsMichael HealyALP2.5LyttonJoan PeaseALP3.0Ipswich WestWendy BourneALP3.9LoganLinus PowerALP4.3MansfieldCorrine McMillanALP4.9StaffordJimmy SullivanALP5.3KurwongbahShane KingALP5.9Fairly safeBancroftChris WhitingALP6.0South BrisbaneBarbara O'SheaALP6.1 v GRNMorayfieldMark RyanALP7.1Mount OmmaneyJess PughALP7.3AlgesterLeeanne EnochALP7.5Ferny GroveMark FurnerALP7.9BulimbaDi FarmerALP8.2McConnelGrace GraceALP8.8IpswichJennifer HowardALP8.9TooheyPeter RussoALP9.0GladstoneGlenn ButcherALP9.2StrettonJames MartinALP9.5SandgateBisma AsifALP9.6GreenslopesJoe KellyALP9.8MurrumbaSteven MilesALP9.8JordanCharis MullenALP9.9SafeMillerMark BaileyALP10.6CooperJonty BushALP11.2WaterfordShannon FentimanALP11.3NudgeeLeanne LinardALP12.0InalaMargie NightingaleALP12.6BundambaLance McCallumALP13.8WoodridgeCameron DickALP18.3Crossbench seats (5)MaiwarMichael BerkmanGRN3.4 v LNPNoosaSandy BoltonIND8.5 v LNPHinchinbrookNick DamettoKAP13.2 v LNPHillShane KnuthKAP13.7 v LNPTraegerRobbie KatterKAP13.7 v LNP

References