Electorate opinion polling and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election

The 2025 Australian federal election was held on 3 May 2025 to elect 150 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 out of the 76 Senate seats. At the election, the Albanese government was elected to a second term of government in a landslide victory, substantially increasing its majority in the Parliament of Australia. Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the election in individual electorates across Australia, relating to voting intentions in the House of Representatives. Several firms also conducted MRP polls, which are projections based on national data, rather than polls in the relevant electorate.

Australian Capital Territory Bean Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election 41.1% 23.0% 9.5% 26.4% — — 50.3% 49.7% — 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 41.9% 30.2% 15.2% 12.8% 62% 38% 3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 9,953 41% 31% 14% 13% 62% 38%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21738.1%29.1%15.7%11.9%4%1.3%59.5% 40.5%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,732 36%32.9%12.9%11%6.2%1%55.2% 44.8%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 38%33%21% 8%61% 39%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 40%32%18% 11%62% 38% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 41% 30% 17% 12% 63% 37% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.7% 29.7% 14.8% 8.2% 2.7% 2.9% 63% — 37%

Canberra Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election 48.3% 19.8% 18.3% 10.9% — 2.7% 69.5% 30.5% 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 43.3% 25.7% 19.7% 8.6% 2.6% 60.1% 39.9% 3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 9,953 50% 19% 24% 7% 68% 32%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21739.9%25.1%21.3%9.9%2.6%1.2%59.8%40.2%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,732 41.4%24.6%21.4%8%3.7%0.8%64.3%35.7%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 48%26%19% 7%67%33%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 45%19%24% 12%66%34% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 44% 26% 23% 7% 62% 38% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.9% 24.7% 21.8% 5.2% 1.7% 1.8% 62.2% 37.8%

Fenner Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election 53.8% 21.9% 16.4% — — 7.9% 72.1% 27.9% 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 51.1% 27.7% 16.8% 4.4% 66.6% 33.4% 3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 9,953 40% 27% 18% 15% 61% 39%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21740.5%28.7%18.5%5.6%4.6%2.1%61.1%38.9%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,732 42.2%30%15.1%6.2%5.3%1.1%59.8%40.2%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 37%31%16% 16%57%43%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 40%34%13% 13%56%44% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 45% 29% 19% 7% 66% 34% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48.3% 27.8% 16.8% 2.7% — 4.4% 65.7% 34.3%

New South Wales Banks Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election39.1%36.4%11.9%3.7%2.0%6.9%47.6%52.4% 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 36%34%10.3%7.5%2.7%9.4%49.6% 50.4%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21742.2%32.2%10.7%6.2%4.8%3.9%52.5%47.5%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73244.4%29.9%10.5%6.3%6.7%2.1%54.8%45.2%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 49% 32% 7% 12%57%43%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 49%33%5% 14%58%42% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.2% 35.3% 8.8% 2.9% 1% 6.9% 53.2% 46.8%

Barton Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election47.1%24.2%15.9%5.6%—7.2%66.0%34.0%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21738.9%32.3%13.5%8.1%3.9%3.2%56.3%43.7%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73238.5%33.8%13.2%6.8%5.8%1.9%55.4%44.6%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 40% 33% 14% 13%57%43%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 45%36%8% 11%56%44% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 50.4% 26.2% 12.5% 4.8%— 6.1% 65.5% 34.5%

Bennelong Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election35.1%45.3%11.8%2.3%—5.5%59.3%40.7%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21740.7%31%12.8%4.4%5.2%5.8%48.6%51.4%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73243.8%29.4%11.2%6.3%5.9%3.4%45.4%54.6%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 46% 33% 13% 8%46%54%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 41%36%11% 12%49%51% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.4% 37.7% 11.4% 1.7%— 7.8% 51% 49%

Berowra Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election41.7%27.0%11.9%4.1%11.4%3.9%51.6%48.4%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21744.1%23.8%14.8%4.8%8.4%4%55.8%44.2%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73248.4%24%12.6%4.9%8.4%1.6%58.7%41.3%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 49% 29% 10% 13%58%42%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 48%28%11% 13%58%42% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.1% 22.2% 15.6% 3.2% 2.9% 7% 59.8% 40.2%

Blaxland Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election46.0%19.6%7.9%3.5%18.8%4.2%71.8%28.1%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21739.1%30.5%12%10.1%3.8%4.5%56.5%43.5%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73239.1%29.9%14.2%8.1%5.8%2.9%57.7%42.3%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 43% 35% 10% 13%56%44%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 41%31%10% 18%56%44% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 55% 27% 6.4% 5.4%— 6.3% 64.9% 35.1%

Bradfield Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election38.0%27.0%20.3%6.7%1.6%6.4%49.99%50.01% 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 27.9% 47.8% 12.3% 7.2% 2.9% 1.9% 35.5% 64.5% 27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21739.4%27.7%20.4%8.8%3.1%0.7%50.1%49.9% 3 Feb 2025Climate 200 1,047 ±3% 40% 48% 52% Mar – Dec 2024Climate 200 43% 22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73241.7%23.9%19.7%10.1%4.1%0.5%51.9%48.1% 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 47% 16% 6% 32%53%47% 10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 50% 16%6% 27%56%44% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 51% 22% 11% 15% 61% 39% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.1% 24% 17.5% 9.3% 1.6% 2.6% 54.2% 45.8%

Calare Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election 29.7% 39.5% 10.5% 7.7% 3.5% 9.1% 43.2% — 56.8% 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 35.6% 35.3% 11.3% 10.2% 4.1% 3.5% 46.9% 53.1% 17–24 Apr 2025 YouGov ±6% 25.1% 38.9% 8.2% 13.9% 5.1% 8.8% 43% 57%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 YouGov (MRP)10,21742.2%21%16%13.3%6.7%0.8%56.2%43.8% 22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 YouGov (MRP)8,73246.2%18.1%15.1%13.0%6.8%0.7%59.7%40.3% Between Mar–Dec 2024 Climate 200 33% 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 53% 23% 6% 18%53% 47% 10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 47% 20% 4%29%56% 44% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 46% 18% 8% 28% 57% 43% 23 Dec 2022 Andrew Gee resigns from the National Party to sit as an independent 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47.7% 20.4% 15.1% 8.4% 4.6% 3.8% 59.7% 40.3% —

Chifley Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election52.6%19.7%6.0%9.8%1.7%10.2%69.8%30.2%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21741.3%29.3%9.8%11.4%4.9%3.3%58.2%41.8%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73243.5%27.8%10.2%9.9%6.5%2%59.4%40.6%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 41% 34% 9% 16%54%46%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 44%30% 13% 13%59%41% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.7% 24.7% 6.2% 5.8% 1.9% 8.7% 63.5% 36.5%

Cook Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election48.1%31.5%9.9%4.4%—6.1%57.2%42.8%—27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21749.4%25.1%10.1%8.2%4.2%2.9%60.2%39.8%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73252.5%23.9%8.4%8.2%5.7%1.4%62.9%37.1%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 55% 25% 6% 14%63%37%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 57% 25% 6% 12%64%36% 13 Apr 2024 2024 by-election 62.7% — 16.5% — 5.7% 15.2% 71.3% — 28.8%28 Mar 2024uComms914±3.6%45.4%12.4%6.1%11.7%65%35% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 55.3% 25% 9.9% 5.1% — 4.5% 62.4% 37.6% —

Cowper Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election37.9%29.4%11.8%6.4%4.2%10.3%52.5%47.5%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21735.6%29.8%15.3%11.1%7.5%0.7%48.4%51.6%Late Feb 2025Climate 200 980 ±3% 35% 47% 53%Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 42% 22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73237.1%25.1%16.8%12.8%7.2%1.1%50.9%49.1% 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 42% 26% 5% 26%52%48% 10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 38% 23% 11%28%47%53% Feb – May 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 4,040 37% 18% 9% 36% 48% 52% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.5% 26.3% 14% 8.1% 5.9% 6.3% 52.3% 47.7%

Cunningham Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election44.7%23.2%20.4%7.6%—4.1%67.5%32.5%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21737.2%27.3%19.7%7.3%5.1%3.3%60%40%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73237.5%29.4%17.8%7.6%5.8%1.8%58.4%41.6%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 44% 28% 16% 12%63%37%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 40%29%16% 14%60%40% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.1% 25% 21.7% 5.1%— 8.1% 64.7% 35.3%

Dobell Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election42.8%27.8%10.3%8.7%—10.4%59.4%40.6%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21735.6%34.7%10.9%11.8%4.5%2.7%52.1%47.9%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73234.6%34.7%9%13.4%6.4%2%50.7%49.3%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 40% 38% 7% 14%51%49%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 38%34%13% 15%51%49% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.9% 33.7% 8.6% 7.5%— 7.4% 56.5% 43.5%

Eden-Monaro Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2PP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election43.0%31.9%10.0%7.0%3.9%4.2%57.2%42.8% 17 – 24 Apr 2025 YouGov 268 ±6% 42.2% 26.0% 10.9% 7.0% 10.6% 3.3% 61% 39%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21732.6%35.8%10.8%9%7%4.6%50.7%49.3%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73230.4%37%9.8%10.6%8.9%3.3%48.4%51.6% 18–20 Dec 2024 Pyxis 400 ±4.9% 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 39% 37% 7% 17%54%46%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 36%38%7% 19%53%47% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.6% 33.0% 9.2% 4.3% 2.0% 8.9% 58.2% 41.8%

Farrer Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election43.4%15.1%4.9%6.6%20.0%10.0%56.2%—43.2%27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21748.5%18.9%9.5%13.1%7.2%2.8%63.6%36.4% 22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73249.5%19.5%9%10.5%9.2%2.2%63.5%36.5% 29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 47% 17% 9% 27%65%35%10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 51%19%7% 23%66%34% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 52.3% 19% 9.1% 6.3% 3.2% 10.2% 66.4% 33.7%—

Fowler Date Firm Samplesize Marginof error Primary vote 2CP vote 3 May 2025 2025 federal election37.5%33.5%12.3%6.8%4.1%5.8%52.7%47.3%— 1 – 29 Apr 2025 YouGov (MRP) 10,822 27.2% 44.8% 13.8% 7.3% 5.6% 1.4% 63% 37% 3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent/RedBridge (MRP) 9,953 27% 21% 9% 44% 57% 43% 27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov (MRP)10,21731.6%26.9%23.1%9.7%7.3%1.5%52.7%47.3%22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov (MRP)8,73232.1%22%26.9%11.9%5.4%1.6% 55.8%44.2%29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)4,909 22% 23% 7% 47%66%34% 10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent/RedBridge (MRP)5,976 26% 27%7% 40%61% 39% 21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.1% 29.5% 17.2% 4.9% 3.6% 8.9% 51.6% 48.4%—

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