Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc., has made numerous predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles. The predictions concern Tesla's suite of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions, marketed as "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)" ("FSD"), and provide estimates for when Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving, requiring no human intervention, which SAE considers Level 5 automation. Tesla does not classify FSD according to the SAE levels of autonomy, but has acknowledged that full autonomy is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".
Musk has publicly stated estimated timelines and intended capabilities of the system since at least 2013. FSD and Autopilot are classified as SAE Level 2 ADAS, . A lawsuit filed in February 2023 by Tesla investors alleging that Musk committed securities fraud by making misleading statements about the development timeline of autonomous Tesla vehicles was dismissed without prejudice in September 2024; the judge ruled that Tesla's legal team successfully argued that Elon Musk's statements were "corporate puffery", i.e., vague corporate optimism.
+Elon Musk's predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles Date Prediction Quote Met "We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years." "I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls." "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel." "I think we’ll be able to achieve true autonomous driving, where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination," "From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner." "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey." "I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. ... We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data." "Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger." "November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey." "I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly." "I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside." "Self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year." "You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that's a ... Like we're on track to do that next year. So I don't know. I don't think anyone else is on track to do it next year." "I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark." "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere. ... maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road." "[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown." "I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year." "... I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year." "... in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year." "The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit ... and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. ... Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and ... potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval." "I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year." "I think we’ll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year." "... I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. I've been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time." "You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. [...] we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year. [...] if I were CEO of another car company, I would definitely be calling Tesla and asking to license Tesla full self-driving technology." "We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. ... and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026." (Cybercab) "We're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid service in Austin in June." "The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year." "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year." "Tentatively, [Robotaxi will launch] June 22. We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift. First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28." "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals." "I think [FSD] will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies." "But I guess next year is — I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet." “[Robotaxi] Should be no safety driver by end of year.” "... the CyberCab, which is a specific model that we're making, does not have a steering wheel or pedals. ... We expect to start production in April." , at a reduced, "very slow" rate "We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. ... we expect to be in dozens of major cities by the end of the year."
Notes
See also Criticism of Tesla, Inc. Tesla Autopilot regulatory and legal actions List of Tesla Autopilot crashes
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