The United Arab Emirates (UAE) faces the impacts of climate change such as water stress, rising sea levels, dust storms, desertification and extreme heat.National Climate Change Plan of the United Arab Emirates 2017-2050. (2017). UAE Ministry of Climate Change and Environment. Climate change threatens the country's water resources, wetland ecosystems, human health, economic stability, and international affairs. The UAE has a hot desert climate and is located on the coast of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.World Bank. (2024). World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal - United Arab Emirates. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/united-arab-emirates Decreasing annual precipitation levels and increased desertification make the country's rural and urban populations vulnerable. Climate change is projected to increase national vulnerabilities in the United Arab Emirates. Sea level rise is expected to impact the UAE's urban infrastructure and marine and wetland ecosystems. The agricultural, fishery, and tourism sectors in the UAE are at risk due to the negative effects of climate change.
UAE has signed and ratified the Paris Treaty. It has revised its third Nationally Determined Contributions, submitted in 2023, focus on both mitigation and adaptation strategies. The UAE intends to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2030 by 40%.
Greenhouse gas emissions The UAE's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005 were approximately 161.134Mt CO2 equivalent. As of 2021, the country has one of the world's top 10 highest per capita CO2 emission rates, of 21.8 tons per capita. As part of the energy sector, the oil and gas industry are a significant driver for the economy along with greenhouse gas emissions. The UAE is one of the highest producers and exporters of oil and gas globally and relies on fossil fuels for the country's electricity power. In 2012, the country supplied 3.2 million barrels of oil per day in production. The UAE's rapid urbanization and population increase has contributed to the country's high per capita energy consumption, one of the highest in the world as of 2016. The UAE's energy sector contributes to 90% of the country's GHG emissions. The sector for road operations and construction contribute anywhere from 76 kg CO2e/m2 to 1100 kg CO2e/m2 per year, depending on the road networks analyzed.
Energy efficiency and renewable energy efforts allow for the reduction of GHG emissions for the UAE. The work towards lower GHG emissions could lower the health risks for the country's already vulnerable populations. In the UAE's Energy Strategy 2050 plan includes adjustments in the country's reliance on fossil fuels in the energy sector, using "clean coal" in the transition to clean energy. The Energy Strategy 2050 aims to focus on solar energy to diversify the energy sector along with nuclear power.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes The UAE faces increased temperatures and a drier climate due to climate change. Using Standardized Temperature Index modeling, Abu Dhabi is expected to have the highest mean temperature when compared with Al-Ain, Dubai and Sharjah. All major cities in the country are expected to have increased annual temperatures, and Al-Ain is predicted to have severe heat events in models until 2030. Between 1975 and 2013 Dubai saw a 2.7 °C increase in temperature. The Arabian Gulf's ocean surface temperature has increased in the last 50 years by 0.2 °C to 0.6 °C every 10 years. Sea temperatures are rising, along with ocean acidification, leading to high vulnerabilities for marine life and coastal ecosystems in the area and globally.Mfarrej, M. F. B. (2019). Climate change patterns in the UAE: A qualitative research and review. Nature Environment and Pollution Technology, 18(1), 261-268 The industries of fishing and agriculture are vulnerable due to increasing temperatures and weather changes such as drought and extreme heat waves, suggesting populations are at risk to food insecurity and regional food shortages.
Water resources
Water quality, quantity and availability will be effected due to climate change in the Middle East region. Salinity, extreme heat, drought, and overuse of water resources are factors that impact the population's water resources. Agricultural and industrial use of water resources increases annually while population and population density increases in the UAE. Each emirate in the country has differing household water consumption data depending on economic growth and population. Rapid growth in population throughout the country will increase the strain on irrigation resources, as the UAE has focused water resources on agriculture. The city of Al Ain has at high risk of water scarcity, due to lack of water management and consumption by economic development and agriculture. It is the only city in the UAE with a known source of renewable groundwater. The UAE is at high risk of water scarcity due to the limited sources of groundwater available.Alsharhan, A. S., & Rizk, Z. E. (2020). Water resources and integrated management of the United Arab Emirates (Vol. 3). Springer Nature. The current depletion rate of groundwater could lead to stopped groundwater supply to croplands in 2030, as the demand for water resources for food growth grows with the population. Groundwater sources where available have high salinity and sea level rise will increase salinity, decreasing the quality of the water source in the region. Increasing temperatures and the decrease in annual rainfall will lead to increased consumption in the industrial and agricultural sectors as well as individual consumption for human health needs and the production of food crops.
Ecosystems Marine ecosystems and habitats are threatened by climate change. Mangrove forests, coral reefs, salt marshes and grasses are at risk due to salinization, sea level rise, increased air and ocean temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns. Damage to such ecosystems will decrease biodiversity in the Arab region and UAE's coastline. The extreme weather events, desertification and flooding are expected to decrease biodiversity and threaten habitat. Mangrove forests are important carbon sequestration ecosystems and support regional biodiversity. There are regional efforts to protect wetland habitats including mangroves with initiatives such as the UAE Annual Mangrove Soil Carbon Sequestration Project which provides data on climate change's effects on carbon sequestration and habitat loss. These projects allow for mitigation and the conservation of vulnerable habitat.
Sea level rise The population of Arabian Gulf countries is concentrated near the coast, with 26 million people living in areas concierge coastal zones. However, the UAE is particularly vulnerable, because the low-lying coastline is shallow sloping, which makes the country highly susceptible to flooding. The countries have also built 90% of the infrastructure within several meters of the sea level and 85% of their population lives within several meters of the sea level, including the coastal city of Dubai.Subraelu, P., et al. "Global warming climate change and sea level rise: Impact on land use land cover features along UAE coast through remote sensing and GIS." J. Ecosyst. Ecography 12 (2022): 1-8 The 1300-kilometer coastlineAli, T., Mortula, M. M., & Gawai, R. (2022, November). Coastal Vulnerability Analysis of the UAE Coast Due to Sea Level Rise. In Euro-Mediterranean Conference for Environmental Integration (pp. 749-752). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. hosts tourism, ports, residential housing, and ongoing construction for development.Subraelu, P., Yagoub, M. M., Sefelnasr, A., Rao, K. N., Allamsatti, R. S., Sherif, M., & Ebraheem, A. A. (2021). Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: A preliminary assessment of UAE coast through remote sensing and GIS. J. Coast. Zone Mang, 24, 477-480 Of the total UAE coastline, 13.8% of it is under very high risk for coastal vulnerability to sea level rise. Sea level is predicted to rise between 42 and 98 cm by the year 2100. By 2100, Six percent of the UAE coastline is predicted to be underwater. Sea level rise is expected to increase environmental disaster risk, including coastal flooding, increased erosion, storm surge, salinization of groundwater (a source of drinking water for UAE), and environmental damage to ecosystems. The most vulnerable areas in the UAE span from the middle of Dubai city's coast to Umm Al Quwain to Ras Al-Khaimah. UAE coastal areas on the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf are at high risk to sea level rise. The easter coast in the Gulf of Oman has a high vulnerability to sea level rise, and the western side of the UAE coast is less vulnerable but still at risk.
Impacts on People
Economic impacts Climate change and sea level rise are expected to have a severe impact on the UAE's coastline, where the country holds its tourism and development for revenue. The country's coastal cities hold large populations of people, where large areas of its built environment are at high risk of sea level rise and other environmental hazards from climate change. The UAE's agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, tourism, and health are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Strains on water resources and food production will increase UAE's reliance on food imports and economic development to protect the country's people and natural environment. Sustainable development is an economic route that will strengthen the UAE's continuing development while limiting the country's emissions and outputs to worsen the impacts of climate change.Mazumder, L. K. (2016). Restructuring the economy through sustainability initiatives in UAE- a case study analysis. London: Centre for Business & Economic Research. Retrieved from https://lib-proxy01.skidmore.edu/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/conference-papers-proceedings/restructuring-economy-through-sustainability/docview/1817996106/se-2 As part of the UAE's mitigation plans, the country is implementing economic diversification to support its economy to address the strains from climate change.Al-Sarihi, A. (2018). Prospects for climate change integration into GCC economic diversification strategies.
Agriculture The Arid climate and poor soil health make it difficult to form a robust agriculture sector, however, they have still made developments. The UAE's lack of rainfall and natural waterways has led to many of the farms, drawing from underground aquifers for water. There are 160,000 hectares of cultivable land being used in the UAE, with the majority of that land being taken up by date palms. In total, there are around 30,000 farms within the UAE, and the government grants 50% subsidies on seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides.
The UAE has looked to develop urban farms that implement rooftop farming, hydroponics, aquaponics, vertical farming, and aeroponics. As there is a high demand to eat local produce over imports. In more conventional farms the UAE has looked to replace outdated flood irrigation systems with more modern water-conserving irrigation. There has also been an increased transition, from more traditional farms to organic farms, which have a more sustainable approach, there are approximately 50 organic farms in the UAE. The Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority (ADAFSA) launched a program to establish a gene bank, to ensure that certain crop genes are saved and can be drawn upon in the future. The UAE has also planned to include agriculture in their tourism sector, as they feel there is interest in their organic farms and camel milk industry. Overall the UAE has used innovative solutions to try and maximize food production in their climate, by modernizing their farms to be in a controlled environment and bolstering their traditional farms to be water efficient.