Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention by area. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The opinion polls listed range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the election on 4 July 2024.

Northern Ireland

Date(s)conducted Pollster Client SamplesizeDUPSFAllSDLPUUPTUVOthers Lead rowspan="1" 2024 general election–22.1%27.0%15.0%11.1%12.2%6.2%6.4%4.9LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,85921%23%18%14%13%4%2LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,63421%24%17%13%12%5%3LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,31620%26%15%10%13%8%6Social Market ResearchIrish News–University of Liverpool1,20623.5%31.1%15.2%8.1%11.1%4.8%–6.6Social Market ResearchInstitute of Irish Studies1,07425%31%15%9%11%5%5%614 Jan – 7 Sep 2023Northern Ireland Life and Times SurveyARK1,200% %%%%– rowspan="1" 2019 general election–30.6%22.8%16.8%14.9%11.7%N/A3.2%7.8

Scotland

Date(s)conducted Pollster Client Sample sizeSNPConLabLDGrnRefOthers Lead style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="1" 2024 general election – 30.0% 12.7% 35.3% 9.7% 3.8% 7.0% 1.6%5.3SavantaThe Scotsman1,08334%15%31%9%3%6%2%3More in CommonN/A1,00830%16%35%9%2%7%1%5Redfield & WiltonN/A1,20032%11%38%7%3%8%1%6NorstatThe Sunday Times -31%13%35%8%3%8%2%4SavantaThe Scotsman1,04234%14%34%7%––7%TieSurvationBallot Box Scotland1,02231%14%37%7%3%8%1%6YouGovSky News1,05929%11%35%11%5%8%1%6SavantaThe Scotsman1,06933%15%38%7%––7%5YouGovN/A1,14631%11%34%7%6%11%1%3NorstatThe Sunday Times1,05030%14%34%9%4%7%2%4OpiniumN/A1,01734%14%35%8%4%5%1%1IpsosSTV News1,13636%13%36%5%3%4%TieYouGovN/A1,06830%13%34%8%6%7%2%4Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00029%17%39%8%3%4%10SavantaThe Scotsman1,06733%17%37%7%––5%4SurvationTrue North1,02632%17%36%9%––6%4More in CommonN/A1,01630%17%35%10%3%4%1%5Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024YouGovN/A1,11429%12%39%8%7%4%2%10Redfield & WiltonN/A1,07831%14%38%8%4%4%7John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of ScotlandSavantaThe Scotsman1,08033%17%37%7%––4%4NorstatThe Sunday Times1,01429%16%34%8%4%6%5 Humza Yousaf announces his resignation as First Minister of Scotland.YouGovN/A1,04333%14%34%8%4%5%2%1NorstatThe Sunday Times1,08632%16%32%9%4%5%TieRedfield & WiltonN/A1,00032%17%33%8%2%5%1YouGovN/A1,10031%14%33%7%5%7%1%2Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00034%16%34%6%4%4%TieSurvationQuantum Communications1,04338%15%33%8%––7%5Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00033%18%34%8%2%4%1IpsosSTV News1,00539%14%32%6%4%–5%7SurvationTrue North1,02936%16%34%8%––7%2NorstatThe Sunday Times1,00733%16%36%7%––8%3Redfield & WiltonN/A1,04035%17%35%9%2%2%1%TieRedfield & WiltonN/A1,05434%17%36%6%3%3%0%2IpsosN/A99040%15%30%6%3%–5%10Redfield & WiltonN/A1,09232%23%32%8%2%2%1%TieYouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20032%16%38%6%4%–4%6SavantaThe Scotsman1,01835%19%35%6%––4%TieYouGovN/A1,02833%20%32%5%5%2%2%1Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-electionRedfield & WiltonN/A1,09534%21%32%9%2%–2%4OpiniumTony Blair Institute1,00437%18%28%8%4%–4%9YouGovThe Times1,10338%16%27%7%6%4%2%11Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10035%15%35%8%4%–3%TieSurvationTrue North1,02237%17%35%6%––5%2YouGovThe Times1,08636%15%32%6%6%3%2%4Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05037%17%34%7%2%–3%3Redfield & WiltonN/A1,03035%21%32%7%2%–3%3Survation–2,02637%17%34%9%––4%3PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00734%18%34%7%––7%TieSavantaThe Scotsman1,01838%17%34%7%––4%4YouGovScottish Elections Study1,20033%17%36%7%4%–3%3Redfield & WiltonN/A1,46637%20%28%9%3%–3%9Ipsos MORISTV News1,09041%16%29%6%3%–4%12SurvationTrue North1,00938%18%31%9%2%–4%7Redfield & WiltonN/A1,29535%18%32%9%3%–3%3YouGovThe Times1,03237%17%28%8%5%2%2%9SurvationN/A1,00140%17%32%7%1%–3%8Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00036%19%31%10%2%–3%5SavantaThe Scotsman1,00939%19%33%6%––4%6PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,08939%19%31%5%––6%8Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National PartyYouGovSky News1,00239%16%29%6%6%3%1%10SurvationDiffley Partnership1,03740%18%32%6%2%–3%8PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,01340%16%33%6% ––5%7Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05039%22%29%6%2%–3%10YouGovThe Times1,01738%19%29%6%4%2%2%9SurvationN/A1,03443%17%30%6%––3%13SavantaThe Scotsman1,00442%17%32%6%––3%10YouGovScottish Election Study1,23938%16%35%6%3%–3%3SurvationN/ATBA42%18%29%6%––0%13YouGovThe Sunday Times1,08842%15%29%6%3%3%2%13SurvationTrue North1,00243%18%29%7%––2%14SurvationScotland in Union1,02544%16%31%6%––1%13SavantaThe Scotsman1,04843%19%30%6%––2%13YouGovThe Times1,09043%14%29%6%4%3%1%14Ipsos MORISTV News1,04551%13%25%6%3%–0%26Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00041%16%31%8%2%–3%10PanelbaseAlba Party1,000+42%16%30%6%2%–2%12PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,01745%15%30%5%––4%15YouGovThe Times1,06745%12%31%7%3%1%1%14ComResThe Scotsman1,02946%15%30%8%––1%16SurvationScotland in Union1,01144%15%31%6%––4%13PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,13344%20%23%8%––5%21PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,01047%19%23%8%––3%24Savanta ComResThe Scotsman1,02946%18%25%8%––3%21IpsosSTV News1,00044%19%23%10%3%–2%21YouGovThe Times1,11546%19%22%6%3%1%2%245 May 2022Local elections held in ScotlandPanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,00942%21%24%7%––5%18BMGThe Herald1,01242%19%26%6%4%–2%16SurvationBallot Box Scotland1,00245%19%27%6%––2%18PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,12844%20%24%8%2%–2%20OpiniumDaily Record1,32848%17%22%7%3%–4%26YouGovThe Times1,06048%20%18%6%3%2%2%28PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,000~48%21%20%7%––4%27PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,00148%21%21%7%––4%27PanelbaseThe Sunday Times2,00347%23%19%7%––4%24OpiniumSky News1,01451%21%17%5%2%–3%30 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal DemocratsPanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,28747%25%18%6%––4%22Airdrie and Shotts by-electionElection to the Scottish ParliamentYouGovThe Times1,14448%22%19%5%4%1%2%26SurvationDC Thomson1,00848%22%20%7%1%–1%26OpiniumSky News1,01547%25%20%6%1%–1%22BMGThe Herald1,02348%20%20%7%3%–1%28SurvationGood Morning Britain1,00846%22%22%8%––2%24PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,07545%22%19%7%4%–3%23SurvationDC Thomson1,03747%21%22%8%1%–1%25YouGovThe Times1,20448%24%19%4%3%1%2%24OpiniumSky News 1,02350%24%19%4%1%–1%26SurvationThe Courier1,02149%21%21%8%1%–0%28YouGovThe TimesTBA49%24%17%4%4%1%1%25BMGThe Herald1,02147%21%19%7%3%–3%26SurvationThe Courier1,45249%21%21%7%1%–1%28OpiniumSky News 1,09650%23%19%5%3%–1%27YouGovThe Times1,10050%23%17%5%3%1%1%27Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish LabourSurvationDaily Record1,01148%23%21%6%––2%25SurvationScot Goes Pop1,02048%19%23%7%––3%25SurvationN/A1,00951%20%21%6%3%––30PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02050%21%20%5%2%––29YouGovThe Times1,08953%19%17%4%3%3%1%34SurvationN/A1,05952%18%20%8%––2%32JL PartnersPolitico1,01656%18%15%7%3%–0%38SurvationN/A1,01851%20%21%6%––3%30YouGovThe Times1,14254%20%16%5%2%2%0%34 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish ConservativesPanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,02653%21%19%6%––2%32PanelbaseScot Goes Pop1,02251%21%19%6%2%–1%30PanelbaseWings Over Scotland1,08650%26%17%5%2%–1%24YouGovN/A1,09551%25%15%6%2%0%1%26PanelbaseThe Sunday Times1,023 48%27%16%5%3%––21 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservativesrowspan="1" 2019 general election– 45.0%25.1%18.6%9.5%1.0%0.5%0.3%19.9

Wales

Dates conducted Pollster Client Sample size Lab Con PC LD Ref GrnOthers Lead rowspan="1" 2024 general election – 37.0% 18.2% 14.8% 6.5% 16.9% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8YouGov Barn Cymru 1,07240% 16% 14% 7% 16% 5% 2% 24More in Common N/A 84842% 22% 9% 4% 14% 5% 4% 20Redfield & Wilton N/A 93046% 15% 10% 7% 17% 4% 1% 29Savanta N/A 1,02649% 19% 12% 5% 12% 3% - 30Redfield & Wilton N/A 96045% 18% 11% 5% 18% 4% 0% 27YouGov Barn Cymru 1,06645% 18% 12% 5% 13% 4% 1% 27More in Common N/A 80545% 21% 13% 4% 12% 3% 1% 24Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024Redfield & Wilton N/A 90043% 19% 14% 3% 15% 6% 1% 24Redfield & Wilton N/A 84040% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22Redfield & Wilton N/A 87849% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of WalesRedfield & Wilton N/A 87445% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,10048% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,08647% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25YouGov Barn Cymru 1,00442% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,10044% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20Redfield & Wilton N/A 95946% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,17244% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22YouGov Barn Cymru 1,05150% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,06841% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,05046% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,00043% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid CymruYouGov Barn Cymru 1,06449% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,05843% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,25144% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20YouGov WalesOnline 1,08353% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,08149% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,04251% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33 Survation 38 Degrees 6,01251% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,01446% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,02041% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 155 May 2022Local elections held in Wales YouGov Barn Cymru 1,08641% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,00941% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15 YouGov ? ?39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,07137% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6 Election to the Senedd YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,07137% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,14237% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4 Opinium Sky News 2,00542% 33% 14% 3% – 3% 9 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,17435%35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,01836% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,01343% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,11041% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,02139% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34%46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36%41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 rowspan="1" 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

English mayoral regions Most of the following polling are the results of secondary questions on Westminster voting intention from polls primarily for the May 2024 United Kingdom mayoralty elections.

London

Date(s) conductedPollsterClientSample sizeLabConLDGrn RefOthersLead style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="1" 2024 general election – 43.1% 20.4% 11.1% 8.7% 10.1% 6.6%22.7SavantaCentre for London1,57949%19%10%6%11%5%30SavantaMile End Institute1,02255%22%10%5%8%1%33Elections to the Mayoralty and London AssemblySavantaCentre for London1,53253%23%13%4%8%0%30YouGovN/A1,19254%17%9%9%9%2%37YouGovN/A1,15755%16%8%9%9%3%39SavantaMile End Institute1,03452%27%10%4%6%1%25Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00051%23%13%7%5%0%28SurvationITV1,01952%21%11%6%9%1%31YouGovQMUL1,11352%17%10%10%10%1%35Lord AshcroftEvening Standard2,75051%23%13%6%6%1%28YouGovQMUL1,06655%20%9%9%4%2%35Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10047%27%17%4%4%1%20By-election in Uxbridge and South RuislipSurvationN/A1,05053%23%14%4%3%30YouGovN/A1,05158%18%9%7%6%1%40Survation38 Degrees6,01259%22%13%––6%37Local elections in LondonYouGovQueen Mary University of London1,11456%24%8%8%2%1%32YouGovN/A1,16655%23%9%7%3%3%32YouGovN/A1,11551%23%11%9%4%2%28Old Bexley and Sidcup by-electionElections to the Mayoralty and London AssemblyPanelbaseN/A1,00247%32%12%6%–4%15YouGovN/A1,14151%33%7%7%1%1%18OpiniumN/A1,00547%32%11%6%0%15OpiniumN/A1,09349%33%9%6%0%16YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19250%31%8%7%2%2%19OpiniumN/A1,10049%34%9%6%0%15Redfield & WiltonN/A1,50048%27%14%8%2%3%21YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,19255%30%7%5%3%1%25Redfield & WiltonN/A2,00053%26%12%6%–3%27Redfield & WiltonN/A2,00050%29%12%6%–3%21Redfield & WiltonN/A2,50048%29%14%7%–2%19YouGovQueen Mary University of London1,00246%34%11%7%1%1%12 rowspan="1" 2019 general election–48.1%32.0%14.9%3.1%1.4%0.5%16.1

Tees Valley