Baseball Prospectus (BP) is an American organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site. Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Baseball Prospectus has originated several popular new statistical tools that have become hallmarks of baseball analysis. Baseball Prospectus is accredited by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Four of Baseball Prospectus's current regular writers are members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America and thus eligible to vote for nominees for Major League Baseball's post-season awards and the Baseball Hall of Fame.Former BP writer Keith Law, who writes for ESPN.com, is also a member of the BBWAA.
Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC Baseball Prospectus is formally an entity of Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, a private corporation that runs websites and publishes books focusing on the statistical analysis of the sports of baseball, basketball, and ice hockey. As of August 2014, the President & CEO is Joe Hamrahi, and Vice President is Dave Pease.BP masthead.
For several years, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (PEV) partnered with Football Outsiders for the publication and promotion of Football Outsiders Almanac (), before 2009 called Pro Football Prospectus ().
On October 10, 2007, PEV launched Basketball Prospectus, a new website for the analysis of men's college and pro basketball, with Joe Sheehan taking the role of Managing Editor and announcing the lineup of principal writer-analysts for the site. Initially, this website did not require a subscription for access, but it introduced subscriptions in 2011 for access to most of the material on the site. BasketballProspectus.coms first annual book, College Basketball Prospectus 2008–2009 (), was published in October 2008. It released Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009–10 for purchase online in October 2009.Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle, "Pro Basketball Prospectus, 2009–10: Our Newest Book", BasketballProspectus (September 2, 2009) . Subsequently, it published both College Basketball Prospectus 2010–11 () and Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010–11 () in both print and online (PDF) modes.
On March 19, 2008, Imagine Sports announced a strategic partnership with PEV and Baseball Prospectus. Imagine sports owns the baseball simulation engine "Diamond Mind Baseball".Imagine Sports strategic partnership.
On October 14, 2008, PEV announced the acquisition of Baseball Digest Daily (BDD), an online blog devoted to baseball analysis and statistics. Joe Hamrahi, new Chief Financial Officer of PEV and founder of BDD, reported that "PEV's decision to acquire Baseball Digest Daily further enhances the content offerings of Baseball Prospectus by adding some of the game's best analysts as well as over 100 pages of baseball news and original content. In addition, BDD's player tracker provides a platform for serious fans and fantasy baseball enthusiasts to easily monitor the progress of their teams, allowing users to manipulate and track the progress of an unlimited set of players over a customized period of time".Press Release: "Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (Owner of Baseball Prospectus) Announces Acquisition of Baseball Digest Daily (BDD)", by Joe Hamrahi, Tuesday, October 14, 2008.
At the same time, PEV revealed publicly that it "owns a significant interest in 538 (www.fivethirtyeight.com), a political analysis website that generates over 700,000 unique visitors daily."
On February 23, 2009, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures (PEV) launched the website Puck Prospectus with the intent of providing cutting-edge analysis of hockey. Will Carroll assumed the role of the Executive Editor, and Andrew Rothstein, the founder of Puck Prospectus, assumed the role of the Managing Editor. Puck Prospectus published its first annual book, Puck Prospectus 2010–2011 () in both online and print formats. Initially a free site, Puck Prospectus introduced subscriptions in 2011.
On March 24, 2009, Baseball Prospectus announced that Nate Silver was stepping down as its Managing Partner, and Kevin Goldstein was assuming this role. At that time, PEV relinquished its previously announced financial interest in Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog. At the same time, it was announced that BP has a partnership relationship with ESPN.com.Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009", BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009 .
In January 2010, PEV's Managing Partner Kevin Goldstein reported that one of BP's founding members, Joe Sheehan, had departed the organization.Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: The Year and the Decade to Come", BaseballProspectus.com, January 4, 2010 . He reported that John Perrotto had been elevated to full-time status on the BP staff and would become the new Editor-in-Chief of BaseballProspectus.com, taking over that responsibility from Christina Kahrl. And he reported that Jeff Euston was joining the BP staff and that Euston's Cot's Baseball Contracts website would be joining the Baseball Prospectus family. In February 2011, Perrotto was replaced as Editor-in-Chief by Steven Goldman.
In February 2010, BP's "Fantasy Manager" Marc Normandin announced that BP had established a partnership with Heater Magazine.Marc Normandin, "The New BP Fantasy", BaseballProspectus.com, February 25, 2010 . Heater Magazine ceased publication after the 2010 season.
In November 2011, Kevin Goldstein announced that he was stepping down as PEV's Managing Partner in favor of Joe Hamrahi.Kevin Goldstein, "Organizational Announcement", BaseballProspectus.com, November 28, 2012. On March 3, 2012, Hamrahi announced that Steven Goldman was stepping down as Editor-in-Chief of BaseballProspectus.com; Goldman had taken a position as a lead baseball writer for Bleacher Report.Joe Hamrahi, "Thank you, Steven Goldman", BaseballProspectus.com, March 2, 2012. Ben Lindbergh was named Managing Editor of Baseball Prospectus on March 5, 2012Joe Hamrahi, "BP Names New Managing Editor", BaseballProspectus.com, March 5, 2012 and Editor-in-Chief of Baseball Prospectus on July 13, 2012.Joe Hamrahi, "Lindbergh and Evans Help Chart New Course for BP", BaseballProspectus.com, July 13, 2012
On April 30, 2012, PEV's Managing Partner Joe Hamrahi announced that "Dan Brooks, Harry Pavlidis, and Brooks Baseball have agreed to team up and join forces with Baseball Prospectus. BrooksBaseball.net is the premier site for PITCHf/x analysis and pitch classification".Joe Hamrahi, "Brooks Baseball Joins Forces with Baseball Prospectus", BaseballProspectus.com, April 30, 2012.
On March 15, 2013, after explaining a week earlier that its key staff of writers had been hired away by ESPN, Baseball Prospectus's Dave Pease declared in response to a question in the comments: "Basketball Prospectus will not be publishing any new content. We are going quiet. The archives will remain available. Thank you".Dave Pease, "State of Basketball Prospectus: A Brief Announcement Basketball Prospectus.com, March 15, 2013 . On March 8, Pease had written: "You've probably noticed our Basketball Prospectus Premium coverage has been pretty quiet lately. You may have also noticed that our core pro writers, Kevin Pelton, Bradford Doolittle, and John Gasaway are now writing for ESPN Insider on a regular basis. Late last year, we learned that, following their completion of the Pro Basketball Prospectus 2012–13 and College Basketball Prospectus 2012–13 annuals, Kevin, Bradford, and John would be moving to ESPN on a full-time basis".
History
Baseball Prospectus was founded in 1996 by Gary Huckabay, who recruited the initial contributor group of Clay Davenport, Rany Jazayerli, Christina Kahrl, and Joe Sheehan, with the publication of the first annual set of forecasts. "That first year, BP charged $20 for a statistics guide produced on a photocopier. It printed around 300 copies and sold about 170 to fellow statheads, even though the book was missing the St. Louis Cardinals. 'It was terrible,' recalls Kahrl, 'but it nevertheless didn't discourage us.' Within a few years Brassey's Inc. published the guide, which grew to about 3,000 copies. By 2007 it reached The New York Times bestseller list, topping 70,000 copies at $21.95 a pop."Zak Stambor, "Number Cruncher", University of Chicago Magazine, July–August 2008 .
The kind of sabermetric approach favored by Baseball Prospectus has gained significant acceptance by the management of many Major League Baseball clubs, notably the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians. BP has often been considered the modern successor to Bill James' Baseball Abstract series of books in the 1980s.See, for example, James Fraser, "'Baseball Prospectus' — Escaping Bill James' Shadow", By the Numbers (Newsletter of the SABR Statistical Analysis Committee) 10, No. 2 (May 2000).
Reflecting its legacy as a group of sabermetricians who met over the Internet, BP has no "main office." Working for BP is a second or part-time job for many of the regular staff, who conduct their work for BP in their own home offices.
The website BaseballProspectus.com began in 1997 primarily as a way to present original sabermetric research; publish advanced baseball statistics such as EqA, the Davenport Translations (DT's), and VORP; and promote sales of the annual book.Dave Pease, "Welcome to Big September", BaseballProspectus.com, September 19, 2011: "On September 19, 1996, we registered the domain name baseballprospectus.com. At the time, the main reason we wanted the site is so all our Usenet friends and customers could get more information about the Baseball Prospectus annual, which we'd just self-published with an imposing print run of about 200". Beginning in 2003, the site placed most of its new articles, its PECOTA forecasts, and some of its statistical databases in a "premium" section that could be accessed only by subscription. However, in May 2011, BP "announced it has made its entire archive of premium and fantasy content over one year old completely and permanently free to the public"."Press Release: BP Announces Free Access to Archives", BaseballProspectus.com, May 23, 2011.
Until 2007, when the site began to post general advertising, the premium subscriptions and book sales were Baseball Prospectus' main source of revenues. Baseball Prospectus does not publish a financial report or information about its subscriber base, but it appears to have used its income to expand its breadth of coverage,Nate Silver, "The State of the Prospectus: Now Serving Beer ... and Tacos", BaseballProspectus.com, February 27, 2006; and Nate Silver, "State of the Prospectus: New Features", BaseballProspectus.com, December 1, 2006. and it has not increased its subscription prices since initiating its premium service. It also offers a subscription to those interested in fantasy baseball, at a lower price than the premium subscriptions and giving access to fewer features and articles.