In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place on or before 25 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.

Electoral threshold of 5%

Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first vote"), or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining CDU/CSU as the Union. The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.

In the 2025 German federal election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the 21st Bundestag. Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a general name used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which was adopted by a party that is present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".

Reliability of pollsters The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.

Poll results

Graphical summary

2026

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP Others Lead INSA 2,002 – 17.5 30.5 14.5 14.5 10.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 13 Forsa 2,502 24 19 26 14 17 11 – 4 9 7 INSA 1,202 – 18 30 14 14 10 4 4 6 12 Infratest dimap 1,303 – 20 27 13 16 11 – 4 9 7 INSA 2,001 – 19 29.5 14.5 14.5 10 3.5 4 5 10.5 Forsa 2,501 24 19 26 14 16 12 3 4 6 7 INSA 1,203 – 19 29 14 15 10 3 4 6 10 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,346 14 21 28 13 14 12 – 3 9 7 Verian 1,464 – 20 28 14 15 12 3 4 4 8 INSA 2,004 – 19.5 29.5 13.5 13.5 10.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 10 Forsa 2,504 25 20 27 12 17 12 3 4 5 7 INSA 1,202 – 20 29 13 14 11 3 5 5 9 pollytix 3,113 – 19 27 14 14 12 5 5 4 8 Allensbach 1,051 – 23 28 13 14 10 – 5 7 5 YouGov 1,787 – 18 29 13 16 10 4 5 5 11 INSA 2,006 – 19.5 29 12.5 14 10.5 3.5 4.5 6.5 9.5 GMS 1,009 – 20 30 11 14 11 3 4 7 10 Forsa 2,502 26 20 27 12 18 12 3 4 4 7 INSA 1,203 – 20 29 13 14 10 3 4 7 9 INSA 2,010 – 19.5 29 12.5 13.5 10.5 4 4.5 6.5 9.5 Forsa 2,502 29 21 28 12 16 11 3 4 5 7 INSA 1,206 – 20 28 13 13 10 4 4 8 8.0 pollytix 3,023 – 20 29 14 13 11 4 5 4 9 Infratest dimap 1,319 – 21 27 13 15 12 – 4 8 6 INSA 2,002 – 20.5 29 12 13.5 10.5 3.5 4.5 6.5 8.5 Ipsos 2,105 – 21 27 12 15 13 3 5 4 6 Forsa 2,504 29 21 28 12 16 12 – 4 7 7 INSA 1,200 – 20 29 12 13 10 4 4 8 9 Verian 1,451 – 20 28 13 16 12 2 4 5 8 INSA 2,004 – 20.5 29 12 13.5 11 3 4.5 6.5 8.5 Forsa 2,501 28 21 28 12 16 12 – 4 7 7 INSA 1,203 – 21 29 12 13 11 3 5 6 8 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,319 19 22 27 12 14 12 – 4 9 5 YouGov 1,744 – 20 28 12 15 12 3 5 5 8 INSA 2,006 – 20.5 28.5 12 13 12 3 5 6 8 pollytix 1,276 – 20 28 15 13 11 4 5 4 8 Forsa 2,504 29 21 28 12 16 12 – 4 7 7 INSA 1,203 – 20 28 12 13 12 3 5 7 8 Allensbach 1,039 – 22.5 27.5 13 13 11 – 6 7 5 INSA 2,010 – 20.5 28.5 12.5 13 11.5 3 4.5 6.5 8 Forsa 2,503 30 21 28 12 16 12 – 4 7 7 INSA 1,205 – 21 28 12 13 11 3 5 7 7 Infratest dimap 1,297 – 21 28 12 15 11 – 4 9 7 INSA 2,004 – 21 28 12 13.5 11 4 5 5.5 7 Forsa 2,501 27 21 28 12 16 12 – 4 7 7 Ipsos 1,000 – 21 28 12 15 13 3 5 3 7 INSA 1,201 – 21 28 12 14 11 4 5 5 7 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,405 15 23 28 12 13 12 – 4 8 5 Verian 1,456 – 21 27 13 15 12 3 4 5 6 INSA 2,006 – 21 28 12.5 13.5 11 4 4 6 7 Forsa 2,502 27 21 27 12 16 13 – 4 7 6 INSA 1,204 – 21 28 12 14 11 4 4 6 7 INSA 2,005 – 20.5 29 13 13 10.5 3.5 4.5 6 8.5 GMS 1,005 – 23 28 11 13 10 2 5 8 5 INSA 1,201 – 21 29 13 13 10 3 4 7 8 Forsa 2,502 27 22 26 12 16 12 – 4 8 4 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,284 17 23 27 12 14 13 – 4 7 4 Allensbach 1,040 – 24 26.5 13 13 10 – 5.5 8 2.5 YouGov 1,827 – 20 27 12 14 12 4 5 6 7 INSA 2,006 – 21.5 28.5 12.5 13 10.5 4 4 6 7 Forsa 2,503 26 22 26 12 16 12 – 4 8 4 INSA 1,204 – 22 28 12 12 11 4 4 7 6 Ipsos 1,000 – 22 28 13 14 13 3 4 3 6 INSA 2,010 – 22 29 12.5 13 10.5 4 4 5 7 Forsa 2,502 27 22 26 12 15 12 3 4 6 4 INSA 1,205 – 21 29 13 13 10 4 4 6 8 Infratest dimap 1,317 – 22 27 12 15 11 – 4 9 5 Verian 1,470 – 22 27 13 15 11 3 4 5 5 INSA 2,006 – 22 29 12 13 10.5 3.5 4 6 7 Forsa 2,505 26 22 26 12 15 12 3 4 6 4 INSA 1,204 – 22 29 12 13 10 3 4 7 7 INSA 2,008 – 21.5 29 12.5 13 10.5 3.5 4 6 7.5 Forsa 2,504 25 22 27 12 15 11 3 4 6 5 INSA 1,204 – 22 29 13 13 10 3 3 7 7 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,190 15 24 28 13 12 11 – 4 8 4 pollytix 2,040 – 21 28 14 13 11 4 5 4 7 Allensbach 1,047 – 24 28 12.5 13 10 – 5.5 7 4 YouGov 1,793 – 20 29 12 14 12 4 5 5 9 INSA 2,003 – 22 29 12 14.5 10.5 3.5 3.5 5 7 Forsa 2,500 26 21 27 12 15 11 3 5 6 6 INSA 1,203 – 22 29 13 14 10 3 3 6 7 INSA 2,009 – 21 29 12 14.5 10.5 3.5 3.5 6 8 Forsa 2,502 26 22 27 11 15 11 3 5 6 5 INSA 1,206 – 21 29 12 14 11 3 3 7 8 Allensbach 1,010 – 24 27 13.5 13 9.5 – 5 8 3 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,247 14 25 27 12 14 11 – 3 8 2 Infratest dimap 1,326 – 23 27 13 14 10 3 4 6 4 Verian 1,454 – 23 27 13 15 10 2 4 6 4 INSA 2,006 – 22 29 12 13.5 10.5 3.5 3.5 6 7 GMS 1,023 – 23 27 11 16 11 2 5 5 4 Forsa 2,502 – 21 27 12 15 11 3 5 6 6 INSA 1,205 – 22 29 12 14 11 3 3 6 7 INSA 2,010 – 22 29 12 14 10.5 3 4 5.5 7 Forsa 2,002 25 22 27 12 15 11 3 4 6 5 INSA 1,203 – 22 29 12 14 11 3 4 5 7 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,340 15 24 26 12 15 12 – 3 8 2 INSA 2,005 – 22 29 12.5 14 10.5 3.5 3.5 5 7 Forsa 2,000 26 22 28 12 14 11 3 4 6 6 INSA 1,203 – 22 29 12 14 10 3 3 7 7 YouGov 1,783 – 22 28 13 13 11 4 4 5 6 INSA 2,006 – 23 28 13 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 5.5 5 Forsa 2,501 25 22 27 12 15 11 – 4 9 5 Ipsos 1,000 – 23 26 13 14 12 3 4 5 3 INSA 1,200 – 23 28 13 13 11 3 3 6 5 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,240 15 25 27 12 13 11 – 3 9 2 Infratest dimap 1,303 – 24 27 12 15 10 3 4 5 3 Verian 1,448 – 24 25 13 15 10 3 4 6 1 INSA 2,008 – 24 27.5 13.5 13 10.5 3.5 4 4 3.5 Forsa 2,002 – 22 27 12 16 11 – 4 8 5 INSA 1,207 – 24 28 14 13 11 3 3 4 4 Allensbach 1,015 – 25 26 12.5 14 10 – 4.5 8 1 INSA 2,010 – 23.5 28 14 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 4 4.5 Forsa 2,503 26 22 27 12 15 12 – 4 8 5 INSA 1,203 – 24 28 14 12 11 3 3 5 4 INSA 2,003 – 24 26.5 14 12.5 11 3.5 3.5 5 2.5 Forsa 2,502 26 24 26 12 15 11 – 4 8 2 INSA 1,201 – 24 27 14 13 11 3 3 5 3 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,355 15 25 26 12 14 11 – 3 9 1 YouGov 1,763 – 23 27 13 14 10 4 4 5 4 INSA 2,006 – 25 26 14 12.5 10 3.5 3.5 5.5 1 Forsa 1,502 – 24 26 12 15 11 – 4 8 2 INSA 1,205 – 25 26 14 13 10 4 3 5 1 Allensbach 1,057 – 26 25 14 13 10 – 4 8 1 INSA 2,002 – 25 26 13 12 10.5 4 3.5 6 1 Verian 1,460 – 25 25 14 14 11 3 3 5 Tie Forsa 1,503 26 26 26 12 15 10 – – 11 Tie INSA 1,199 – 25 26 13 12 11 4 3 6 1 Infratest dimap 1,316 – 26 25 12 14 10 3 3 7 1 INSA 2,006 – 26 26 14.5 12 10.5 3.5 3 4.5 Tie Forsa 2,504 24 26 25 12 15 10 3 – 9 1 Ipsos 1,000 – 24 25 14 14 11 3 5 4 1 INSA 1,205 – 26 26 14 12 11 3 3 5 Tie Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,206 13 26 26 13 15 10 – – 10 Tie INSA 2,010 – 26 26 15 12 10 3.5 3 4.5 Tie Forsa 2,501 25 26 25 12 15 10 3 – 9 1 INSA 1,205 – 26 25 15 12 11 3 3 5 1 YouGov 1,851 – 26 26 14 13 9 3 3 6 Tie INSA 2,002 – 25.5 26 15 12 10.5 3.5 3 4.5 0.5 Forsa 2,503 23 27 23 12 15 11 3 – 9 4 INSA 1,201 – 25 25 15 12 11 3 3 6 Tie Allensbach 1,045 – 28 23 16 11.5 10 – 4 7.5 5 Verian 1,471 – 26 23 15 13 11 3 3 6 3 INSA 2,003 – 26 24.5 15.5 11.5 10.5 3.5 3.5 5 1.5 Forsa 2,502 25 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2 INSA 1,200 – 26 25 15 11 11 3 4 5 1 Infratest dimap 1,317 – 28 23 14 13 9 4 – 9 5 INSA 2,002 – 25.5 25 16 11.5 10 3.5 3 5.5 0.5 GMS 1,027 – 26 24 16 12 10 3 3 6 2 Forsa 2,503 26 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2 Ipsos 1,000 – 25 24 15 14 11 3 4 4 1 INSA 1,203 – 26 25 16 11 10 3 3 6 1 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,262 12 26 24 15 12 11 – – 12 2 INSA 2,006 – 25 25 15.5 11 11 3.5 3.5 5.5 Tie Forsa 2,504 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2 INSA 1,203 – 25 25 16 11 11 3 3 6 Tie Allensbach 1,052 – 27 24 16 12 10 – 4 7 3 INSA 2,002 – 25.5 25.5 15.5 11 10 4 3 5.5 Tie Forsa 2,504 26 26 25 14 12 10 3 3 7 1 INSA 1,202 – 25 25 16 11 10 4 3 6 Tie Verian 1,472 – 25 24 15 12 11 3 4 6 1 YouGov 1,657 – 25 25 16 11 10 4 4 6 Tie INSA 2,004 – 25.5 26 15.5 11 10 4 3 5 0.5 Ipsos 1,000 – 23 26 15 13 12 3 4 4 3 Forsa 2,503 27 26 24 14 13 11 3 3 6 2 INSA 1,202 – 25 26 16 11 10 4 3 5 1 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,289 14 26 24 15 13 10 – – 12 2 Infratest dimap 1,319 – 26 24 15 12 10 3 3 7 2 INSA 2,006 – 26 26 15.5 11.5 10 4 3 4 Tie Forsa 2,503 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2 INSA 1,204 – 26 26 16 11 10 4 3 4 Tie INSA 2,008 – 25 26 14.5 11.5 10.5 4.5 4 4 1 Forsa 2,501 28 26 24 14 12 11 3 3 7 2 INSA 1,204 – 25 26 15 11 10 4 4 5 1 INSA 2,004 – 25 26 14 12 10.5 4 4 4.5 1 Forsa 2,501 26 25 26 14 12 10 3 3 7 1 Allensbach 1,077 – 27 25 15 11.5 10 – 3.5 8 2 INSA 1,202 – 25 26 14 12 11 4 4 4 1 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,245 18 26 25 15 12 10 – – 12 1 Verian 1,455 – 26 25 15 13 10 3 3 5 1 pollytix 1,573 – 25 26 15 12 10 3 5 4 1 YouGov 1,673 – 25 25 16 12 10 3 4 5 Tie INSA 2,010 – 24.5 26 14.5 12 10 4 4 5 1.5 Forsa 3,004 26 24 26 13 13 11 3 3 7 2 Ipsos 1,000 – 23 26 15 13 11 3 4 5 3 INSA 1,205 – 24 26 14 12 11 3 4 6 2 Infratest dimap 1,323 – 28 25 13 12 10 3 3 6 3 INSA 2,008 – 25 25.5 14.5 11 11 4 3.5 5.5 0.5 GMS 1,027 – 24 27 15 12 10 4 3 5 3 INSA 1,004 – 25 26 14 11 11 4 4 5 1 2025 federal election – 17.5 28.5 20.8 16.4 11.6 8.8 5.0 4.3 4.6 7.7

2025