The 2024 general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019, as applied to the 2024 constituency boundaries. The term "target seats" is sometimes used to describe seats requiring a low swing, but it is also used to refer to the seats on which a party has chosen to "target" its campaigning. The list of a party's target seats is not made public.
Owing to boundary changes following the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.
List by party
Conservative + Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Conservatives Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing required Winning party 2024 1 Warrington SouthLabour Party 0.06%Labour Party 2Coventry North WestLabour Party 0.22%Labour Party 3 Kensington and BayswaterLabour Party 0.36%Labour Party 4Alyn and DeesideLabour Party 0.39%Labour Party 5Wirral WestLabour Party 0.41%Labour Party 6 Beckenham and PengeLabour Party 0.52%Labour Party 7 Heywood and Middleton NorthLabour Party 0.80%Labour Party 8Dagenham and RainhamLabour Party 0.80%Labour Party 9 Coventry SouthLabour Party 0.86%Labour Party 10Warwick and LeamingtonLabour Party 1.12%Labour Party 11BedfordLabour Party 1.19%Labour Party 12 Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyLabour Party 1.31%Labour Party 13Doncaster CentralLabour Party 1.38%Labour Party 14 Ceredigion PreseliPlaid Cymru 1.40%Plaid Cymru 15 Rawmarsh and ConisbroughLabour Party 1.55%Labour Party 16ChesterfieldLabour Party 1.61%Labour Party 17Oldham East and SaddleworthLabour Party 1.62%Labour Party 18Warrington NorthLabour Party 1.63%Labour Party 19CanterburyLabour Party 1.89%Labour Party 20HalifaxLabour Party 1.99%Labour Party 21 Newport West and IslwynLabour Party 2.06%Labour Party 22 Perth and Kinross-shireScottish National Party 2.09%Scottish National Party 23 Cramlington and KillingworthLabour Party 2.24%Labour Party 24 Ayr, Carrick and CumnockScottish National Party 2.50%Labour Party 25 Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyScottish National Party 2.56%Scottish National Party 26Doncaster NorthLabour Party 2.58%Labour Party 27Nottingham North and KimberleyLabour Party 2.89%Labour Party 28GowerLabour Party 2.93%Labour Party 29Leeds EastLabour Party 3.06%Labour Party 30 Leeds West and PudseyLabour Party 3.09%Labour Party 31Wolverhampton South EastLabour Party 3.10%Labour Party 32TynemouthLabour Party 3.26%Labour Party 33Bradford SouthLabour Party 3.34%Labour Party 34Croydon EastLabour Party 3.37%Labour Party 35Sunderland CentralLabour Party 3.41%Labour Party 36Stalybridge and HydeLabour Party 3.48%Labour Party 37Lothian EastScottish National Party 3.62%Labour Party 38Houghton and Sunderland SouthLabour Party 3.65%Labour Party 39Kingston upon Hull EastLabour Party 3.67%Labour Party
+ Other seats gained and lost in by-elections Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing required Winning party 2024 46HartlepoolLabour Party 4.38%Labour Party –Mid BedfordshireConservative Party –Conservative Party
Labour