The China threat or China threat theory is varied set of views that argue that China poses a threat to democracy, peace, military and economic relations, and other aspects around the world. As China's economy grows, some believe that China's system of government and development model are more effective than those of Europe and the United States and that China will eventually replace them. Since the end of the Cold War, the China threat theory has grown in the West, especially the United States, and has affected the US' foreign policy toward the People's Republic of China. The Chinese state view this theory as a rheotical trap by the West to discursively contain it.

The China threat theory does not represent a unified or cohesive view. Different countries and governments have different views on China's behavior and intentions. Some countries view China as a potential threat and need to take measures to deal with its behavior, while others believe that issues with China should be resolved through dialogue and cooperation.

Overview

The China threat theory is a statement that expresses concerns and doubts that arise in international relations due to the increasing power and influence of mainland China. After Chinese century, the rapid development of the Chinese mainland has posed challenges to the interests of its neighboring countries and the international order. The threats include economic, diplomatic, military, food, population, and even space. Some commentators point out that the dictatorship system in mainland China is the main cause of the threat theory. Chinese officials believe that the threat theory originated from statements used by Western countries to suppress China's development in the post-Cold War era.

History The "China threat theory" has a long history in Europe. Starting with the "Anti-Chinese Wave" in the 19th century, white supremacist and Chinese labor interest groups perceived Chinese workers in the United States as a "threat" to mainstream American culture. As a result, they exerted pressure on the government, leading to the passage of the Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882 and 1884, respectively. The "China threat theory" during this period specifically referred to Chinese immigrants, not the contemporary "China threat theory." However, the ideology of white supremacy and the conflict between Eastern and Western civilizations, which are reflected in it, can still be found in the subsequent "China threat theory."

At the inception of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), there was also a surge in the "China threat theory" in the United States. This theory suggested that the success of the Chinese Communist Revolution could potentially initiate a domino effect in Southeast Asia, thus presenting a "red threat" to the United States. The "China threat theory" of this period emerged in the context of the Cold War.

In the early days of the reform and opening up of the People's Republic of China, many people did not have a positive view of the Chinese mainland, and some even predicted that it might "collapse".

Historically, there have been many versions of the "China threat theory," which currently revolves around opposition to the People's Republic of China, governed by the CCP. However, because the state-owned economy led by the CCP is an integral part of China's contemporary economy and is intertwined with the livelihoods of many people, the perspectives of "anti-communism" and "anti-China" may partially coincide.

Beginning in the mid-1990s, the Chinese term 中国威胁论 (Zhongguo Weixielun, "China threat theory") became the more prevalent in Chinese discourse to describe perceived baseless or racist foreign fears instead of the previously more prevalent term Huangguo Lun ("Yellow Peril"). Usage of Zhongguo Weixielun became increasingly common in Chinese media after 2000.

According to Western world, China, under the general secretaryship of Xi Jinping, has demonstrated significant ambition, especially concerning the Status of Taiwan and the South China Sea dispute. China's stance is becoming increasingly firm, prompting the Western world, led by the U.S., to address the threat posed by China. Consequently, the risk of a regional military conflict has significantly increased.

Threat type

Economic

Europe After the European debt crisis, a large amount of capital from the Chinese Mainland entered the European bond market. The British media, BBC, interpreted it as mainland China gaining control over Europe through the purchase of European bonds.

Africa

Japan, Europe, and the United States believe that mainland China's investments, trade, and economic assistance in Africa are viewed as "neo-colonialism."

Taiwan Mainland China poses the greatest threat to Taiwan's electronics industry exports. In 2015, as mainland China began to transform its economy and upgrade its industries, it also started developing the supply chain for high-tech industries.

Other Lester Brown's article "Who Will Feed China?" states that mainland China's large population and high food demand will lead to global food supply shortages. But the world's food production has been in surplus for many years. Food shortage problems only exist in places with political and military turmoil, not due to insufficient food supply.

Strategic

Alongside economic growth, mainland China's military spending has also increased, raising concerns among neighboring countries, regions, and the United States.

America At present, China's military expenditure is second only to that of the United States. Some individuals argue that this poses a threat to the United States' global leadership position. However, the gap between the Chinese and U.S. militaries is still very large. The military expenditure of the United States is three to four times higher than that of China, surpassing the combined total of the countries ranked second to fifteenth.

Japan The Island chain strategy in the East China Sea has sparked a disagreement between China and Japan regarding the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands and their affiliated islands in the East China Sea. The conflict escalated further after Japan announced the nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands.

Taiwan

Mainland China's insistence on the policy of a united front against Taiwan, along with the military buildup on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, has created a sense of threat for Taiwan. The government of the Republic of China announced the end of mobilization to fight the rebellion in 1991, thereby declaring an end to hostilities between the two sides.

Conflicts with Taiwan, particularly the 1995–96 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, occurred before the first direct citizen election of the President of the Republic of China (aka President of Taiwan) in 1995–96. During this time, Taiwan had just experienced the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre and the Qiandao Lake incident. These conflicts have highlighted the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party and continue to influence Taiwanese politics to this day. The Chinese Communist Party still adheres to one-party rule. Some believe that the human rights situation in the People's Republic of China has continued to deteriorate after the Beijing Olympics. China maintains its position of using force to resolve the Taiwan issue and has deployed approximately 2,000 missiles targeting Taiwan. All of these factors have led to the discontent, concern, and strong opposition of the Republic of China and many Taiwanese people towards the increasing influence of the Chinese Communist Party and mainland China.

South China Sea

Conflicts with several countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, over sovereignty in the South China Sea have caused many nations to feel threatened by mainland China. Countries that have sovereignty disputes with China in the South China Sea include Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. On April 24, 2021, the EU accused China of endangering peace in the South China Sea. The EU has issued a new policy aimed at bolstering its influence in the Indo-Pacific in response to Chinese Century influence.

Worldwide attitudes The perception of the threat posed by mainland China differs from time and place. Further, the concept of "China threat theory" does not have a definitive stance and is sometimes even ambiguous.

After the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre, some media and individuals believed that the authorities in mainland China began promoting nationalist and authoritarian political propaganda to consolidate their power. They successively promoted nationalist media, such as the Global Times, threatened Taiwan with force, and simultaneously increased military spending. They also engaged in espionage to acquire military and economic secrets from other nations. They also declared sovereignty over disputed waters. Outside observers have increasingly come to view mainland China as a military and political threat.

Taiwan The Constitution of the Republic of China stipulates that the sovereignty of the Republic of China extends to the entire territory of China. The term "China threat theory" refers to the perceived threat posed by the government of the People's Republic of China, which governs mainland China.

After the government of the Republic of China lifted martial law in 1987, measures such as allowing family visits and opening up cross-strait relations gradually led to a reduction in tensions; However, first of all, the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre in mainland China, and later the Qiandao Lake incident, among others, have generally left Taiwanese people with a negative impression of mainland China.

In recent years, Taiwan has undergone a revision of the Constitution of the Republic of China and has ceased temporary provisions against the communist rebellion since 1991. The Government of the Republic of China no longer considers the CCP and the Government of the People's Republic of China as enemies or rebels. However, the former often discussed their perspectives and positions on various topics, including the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese Civil War, the non-recognition of the Government of the Republic of China, Taiwan democratization, Taiwanization, and Taiwan independence movement. These discussions were deemed unacceptable by the government of the Republic of China, especially the Kuomintang. Show force and suppress Taiwan's international presence.

Wang Jin-pyng, the former president of the Legislative Yuan of the Republic of China, has stated that given mainland China's increasing military capabilities, Taiwan should take a more proactive approach in International organizations. This includes strengthening alliances with the United States and Japan and continuing to enhance its self-defense capabilities. These measures are necessary to ensure peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region and across the Taiwan Strait.

Former president Tsai Ing-wen of the Republic of China believes that the democratization of mainland China has always had an impact on the process of cross-strait relations and the stability of the Taiwan Strait. Democracy and human rights are Taiwan's most important assets, and Taiwan should actively support mainland China in its democratic process.

Malaysia Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was the first Asian leader to reject the "China threat theory." When the "China threat theory" prevailed in Southeast Asia in the 1990s, Mahathir once stated that China was a significant country in the region and had the potential to contribute positively to regional politics, economy, and security. Therefore, he advocated for practical cooperation with China. On May 26, 2012, he conducted an exclusive interview with The Nikkei regarding the "China threat theory" and stated:

United States