On the evening of Friday, March 24, 2023, a large, violent, and long-tracked multi-vortex wedge tornado struck the Mississippi towns of Rolling Fork, Silver City, and Midnight. The tornado, known most simply as the Rolling Fork tornado or informally the Rolling Fork-Silver City Tornado by the National Weather Service (NWS), killed 17 people and injured at least 165 others. Part of a wider tornado outbreak sequence across the Southern United States, this tornado was the deadliest and strongest of the event. It caused catastrophic damage in Rolling Fork and significant damage in Silver City. The NWS assigned the tornado a rating of EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with estimated peak winds of .
The tornado touched down in Issaquena County and rapidly intensified as it tracked northeastward into Sharkey County, reaching EF4 intensity as it approached Rolling Fork. It caused extensive destruction in Rolling Fork, leveling numerous homes and businesses, including a well-built flower shop that sustained high-end EF4 damage. The tornado continued through Humphreys County, impacting Midnight before causing further significant EF2 damage in Silver City. The tornado remained on the ground for 1 hour and 11 minutes, tracking before dissipating in Holmes County.
The devastation led to a major disaster declaration by President Joe Biden. The towns of Rolling Fork and Silver City faced a prolonged recovery, with hundreds of residents displaced and significant rebuilding efforts initiated. Insured losses were estimated near $100 million (2023 USD). Discussions arose among meteorologists regarding whether the tornado warranted an EF5 rating based on certain damage indicators, though it was ultimately given a high-end EF4 rating.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s finalized damage survey by county:
Meteorological synopsis On March 18, an upper-level trough was situated across the Western United States. As time progressed, the trough began to progress to the east. By March 20, forecasters at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center were calling attention to "some potential for discrete storms" in Mississippi on March 24 ahead of the cold front, their severity contingent on prior destabilization of the atmosphere.
On March 22, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a level 3/enhanced risk of severe weather across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi for supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes (EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita scale). The enhanced risk was expanded northward the following day, and the original outlined area was upgraded to a level 4/moderate risk.On March 24, water vapor imagery showed a potent mid-level trough. Strong mid-level winds between the trough and strong high-pressure area across the Southeastern United States were displaying in models as well. Meanwhile, a quickly deepening low-pressure area was expected to drag a warm front northward, leading to a broad, unstable air mass to its south. Although some reduction in moisture was expected across Mississippi due to drier air aloft and warm surface temperatures into the 80s Fahrenheit, continued advection of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico seemed supportive of dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s across Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi by the evening hours. Thus, mixed-layer convective available potential energy was expected to rise into the 1,500–2,000 J/kg range. Forecasters initially thought that strong forcing of ascent across Arkansas would lead to an organized squall line capable of both tornadoes and damaging winds, whereas more discrete supercells would be possible farther south, particularly along north–south oriented confluence bands in the open warm sector. The tornado threat relied on the amount of wind shear in the lower levels, which would aid in sustaining supercells.
Storm development
A tornado watch was issued at 5:15 p.m. Central Daylight Time (UTC−5) for portions of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, central and northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The watch mentioned the possibility of several strong to intense tornadoes with persistent supercells. Clusters of storms evolved along the confluence bands in conjunction with improving wind shear profiles. However, given their displacement from the surface low and better forcing, there was some uncertainty as to whether they would become better organized. A strengthening low-level jet and surface moisture increased confidence in the maturation of these cells, but tornadic development had not yet begun in the area as of 00:00 UTC.
At their 01:00 UTC outlook, the SPC lowered the probability of tornadoes to a 10% (significant) tornado area, thus downgrading the moderate risk to an enhanced risk. The SPC cited weaker than expected instability in the area, with increased confidence in only limited buoyancy developing. However, the same update noted that "a couple of longer-track supercells" and "a few strong tornadoes" remained possible.
As the update was being issued, a strong supercell evolved near the Louisiana-Mississippi border. By 7:57 pm. CDT, a strong velocity couplet formed at the base of the supercell, which then produced what would become this long-tracked violent EF4 tornado, and at 8:04 pm, as the storm approached the town of Rolling Fork, a tornado emergency was placed. Afterwards, the tornado struck Rolling Fork, Midnight, and Silver City, inflicting catastrophic damage and causing over a dozen fatalities. While the violent EF4 tornado was on the ground, Harry Weinman, a forecaster at the SPC, issued a special meso-gamma mesoscale discussion for the tornado. In the discussion, the SPC stated that radar showed debris was being lofted at least into the air and that a vertical rotation of was also being detected. The SPC also indicated that this was likely an intense tornado, at least EF3, solely based on the Doppler radar data. The discussion concluded by noting that the downstream atmospheric environment would allow the storm producing the violent EF4 tornado to persist for 30 to 60 minutes.
Tornado summary + Fatality locations from the tornado Fatalities Fatality location 10 Mobile home/Trailer home 4 Permanent home 2 Business 1 Vehicle
Formation The storm that spawned the tornado first developed as a cluster of storms in northeastern Louisiana between 5:30 pm and 6:30 pm CDT and tracked northeastward. This cluster remained disorganized until they approached the Mississippi River, at which point a more favorable low-level jet allowed them to organize into a dangerous supercell thunderstorm rapidly. At 7:33 pm CDT, the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi, issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the strengthening supercell with the threat being for the possibility of 60 mph wind gusts. Shortly after that, the supercell developed a mesocyclone that quickly intensified as it continued swiftly northeastward through Caldwell Parish, which prompted the issuance of a tornado warning at 7:45 pm CDT. A second tornado warning for areas downstream of the first warning, including Rolling Fork, was issued shortly afterwards at 7:53 pm CDT after the supercell crossed the Mississippi River. Four minutes later, the storm spawned the violent tornado that struck Rolling Fork.
The tornado first touched down in Issaquena County, southeast of Mayersville, east of the Mississippi River, at 7:57 pm CDT. The official touchdown point for the tornado was placed south-southwest of the intersection of Turner Road and Grant Road on the southeastern tip of a wooded area and then tracking on an east-northeastward course that quickly changed to a northeastward movement. However, this has been disputed by academic scholars due to aerial imagery showing that the official track is not co-located to the visually identified track. After touching down, the tornado caused EF1 damage to trees and snapped a small wooden power pole, with two barns also suffering minor damage as it crossed Grant Road before moving through the Steele Bayou Canal and into Sharkey County, causing sporadic tree damage, with some trees being uprooted. Four minutes before crossing the county line, the first report confirming the tornado's existence came at 7:58 pm CDT near Willett Road southeast of Mayersville. Both tornado warnings for the storm were upgraded to Particularly dangerous situation (PDS) warnings at 7:58 pm CDT and 7:59 pm CDT, respectively, based solely on the violent radar indicated rotation that was being detected, despite there not being clear evidence of this tornado's existence at the time.
The tornado then rapidly grew in size and strength as it approached Rolling Fork from the southwest, snapping and uprooting many trees in a wooded area at EF2 intensity, including some that sustained debarking. The tornado then reached low-end EF4 intensity for the first time and produced violent tree damage as it exited the wooded area, where severe debarking occurred, one tree was ripped out of the ground by its root ball, and pieces of shredded trees were thrown into an adjacent field. Several power transmission poles were downed, while EF1 to EF2 damage occurred farther from the center of the tornado's damage path as it crossed Bear Lake Road, where a house lost its roof and exterior walls, and two residences west of that home lost significant portions of their roof covering. A mobile home was also rolled in this area. At that time, the violent rotation of radar paired with a debris signature that began to be detected at 8:02 pm CDT prompted the National Weather Service to upgrade the second PDS tornado warning to a tornado emergency at 8:04 pm CDT; the tornado would remain under this tag for most of its existence.
As it reached the southwestern outskirts of Rolling Fork at 8:05 pm CDT, the tornado moved directly through the Indian Bayou subdivision along Pinkins Road at low-end EF4 intensity, where every single home (about 15 in all) was leveled, and multiple were swept away. Most of the homes in the area were poorly constructed or were manufactured homes, though one frame home at this location was well built enough to earn a low-end EF4 rating. Violent contextual damage was also noted as large hardwood trees near the residences were severely debarked, some were stripped of their branches and stubbed, cars were thrown into fields and destroyed, and debris was strewn long distances. One car was rolled and bounced and left wrapped in utility lines, while another vehicle was thrown against a partially debarked tree. One person was severely injured in this area and died about four weeks later. Low-end EF4 damage continued as the tornado crossed MS 826, where a brick house was flattened, and many trees were debarked and left with only stubs of branches remaining. A large metal outbuilding was swept away at high-end EF2 intensity in this area as well. The tornado then weakened slightly, but remained intense, completely destroying a house near Oasis Drive at high-end EF3 intensity. The home was leveled, but it may have been struck by three nearby mobile homes that were thrown and destroyed.
Rolling Fork