In December 2021, during the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia issued a list of demands widely seen as an ultimatum to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. In January 2022, NATO refused the main demands, but offered to negotiate others. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Although NATO's eastward enlargement during the 1990s and 2000s had been accepted by Russia at the time, and Russia itself had joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program, Russian president Vladimir Putin became concerned with waning Russian influence in former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and the Baltic States, which were aligning themselves with the West economically and politically. Following Ukraine's 2014 revolution, Russia annexed Crimea and started a war in eastern Ukraine. This prompted NATO to end co-operation and to deploy a small tripwire force in the Baltic states and Poland.
On 15 December 2021, Russia issued a list of demands in the form of two draft treaties, one with NATO and another with the United States. The treaties included a proposed ban on Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries ever joining NATO, and the withdrawal of NATO troops and weapons from its Central and Eastern European member states. The demands, made during a time of high tension, during which about 100,000 Russian troops were massed on Ukraine's borders, were widely seen as an ultimatum and an attempt by Russia to exert pressure on Western countries. Several Western political analysts suggested Russia was making unrealistic demands as a "smokescreen", knowing they would be rejected and giving Russia a pretext for invading Ukraine.
NATO and the United States issued their formal response to Russia on 26 January 2022. The alliance rejected Russia's demand to never let Ukraine join NATO, saying this would go against the right of countries to choose their security, which Russia had acknowledged in treaties. They rejected Russia's demand for NATO forces to be withdrawn from eastern members, calling on Russia to stop its build-up around Ukraine and to withdraw its occupying forces from Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. NATO and the US offered to improve transparency with Russia, and to negotiate limits on missiles and military exercises. The US proposed an agreement whereby Russia and the US would never station missiles or troops in Ukraine, and Russia would be allowed to inspect missile defense bases to confirm they are not a threat. Russia replied that its key demands had been ignored, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine followed less than a month later on 24 February.
Background Cold War After World War II, the Soviet Union established the Warsaw Pact: while the Pact was nominally a defensive alliance, in practice it functioned to safeguard the Soviet Union's hegemony over its Eastern European satellites. Effectively, the Pact was a direct reflection of the Soviet Union's authoritarianism and undisputed domination over the Eastern Bloc, in the context of the so-called Soviet Empire. The Pact's only direct military actions were invasions of its own member states to keep them from breaking away, as per the Brezhnev Doctrine, which allowed only limited independence of the satellite states' communist parties so that they would not compromise the cohesiveness of the Eastern Bloc. Decisions in the Warsaw Pact were ultimately taken by the Soviet Union alone; the member states were not equally able to negotiate their entry in the Pact nor the decisions taken. By contrast, in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance including the United States and its allies in Europe, all decisions required unanimous consensus in the North Atlantic Council despite US influence (mainly military and economic) over NATO. The entry of countries into the NATO alliance was not subject to domination but rather a democratic process.
NATO enlargement and rapprochement with Russia Following the end of the Cold War in 1991, including the disbanding of Warsaw Pact and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO began to accept new members in Central and Eastern Europe, eventually incorporating all former Pact countries as well as several former republics of the Soviet Union. Russian military actions, including the First Chechen War, were among the factors driving these countries, particularly those with memories of similar Soviet offensives, to push for NATO membership to ensure their long-term security.
In 1994, Russia joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program to facilitate cooperation and better relations with NATO, and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to protect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. In 1996, Russia joined the Council of Europe as well. The following year, in 1997, NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, which stated, among other things, that Russia and NATO "do not consider each other as adversaries".https://www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm
End of friendly NATO-Russia relations Despite this, NATO enlargement became a point of contention for Russia, particularly under Vladimir Putin, who asserted that it was a breach of assurances made by Western leaders in the early 1990s, and was meant to encircle Russia and undermine its security. Although Putin has called NATO enlargement a threat, Putin was actually more concerned about the loss of Russia's perceived sphere of influence in former Soviet republics, which were aligning themselves with the West economically and politically. Putin aimed to regain control of these republics as part of re-establishing Russia as a "great power".
Putin has aimed to sow division within NATO, by establishing relationships with NATO members Hungary and Turkey. With numerous Western European countries dependent on Russia for energy, particularly Germany which was a major benefactor of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Putin believed that NATO was too divided and would not stand in his way.
Russian failure to dominate Ukraine Putin attempted to install a pro-Russian government in Ukraine in 2004, poisoning pro-Western presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, but this backfired due to the Orange Revolution. While Putin's effort succeeded in 2010, the massive Euromaidan protests in 2013–2014 forced pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych into exile. The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and subsequent war in the Donbas marked the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, leading to diplomatic fallout and the imposition of economic sanctions by Western nations.
Prelude to full-scale invasion of Ukraine On 12 July 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin published his essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", which openly questioned Ukrainian territorial integrity and claimed that it was a "product of the Soviet era" formed "on the lands of historical Russia". A Kremlin-affiliated outlet described the essay as his "final ultimatum to Ukraine".
Starting in 2021, Russian units that were meant to defend Russia's western borders were withdrawn from the land borders with NATO, to prepare to invade Ukraine. Russia began a military build-up along its border with Ukraine, massing about 100,000 troops by December. The build-up was seen as a show of strength, and as a pressure tactic aimed at forcing Western concessions.
In November 2021, Russian president Putin warned that he would not tolerate a NATO missile defense shield (to shoot down attacking missiles) ever being deployed in Ukraine. He said that Aegis Ashore interceptors, like those based in Romania and Poland, could be secretly converted to launch Tomahawk missiles that could reach Moscow within minutes. However, there were no such plans to deploy a missile shield in Ukraine. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, replied "it's Russia that has developed ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles that can reach Germany and nearly all NATO European territory, despite Russia being a party to the INF Treaty that prohibited these missiles". He added that "Russia's violation led to the termination of that treaty" by the first Trump administration.
US intelligence also uncovered Russian false flag operations and disinformation campaigns in occupied Donbas that aimed to create a justification for the invasion in January and early February 2022. Putin had framed Ukraine as a threat, claiming it was about to attack Russia and Russian-occupied territories, even though the Kremlin had assessed Ukraine’s military capabilities and will to fight to be so weak that Russian forces would overrun the country in days.
Ultimatum On 15 December 2021, Putin submitted "specific proposals" on Russia's demands for security guarantees from the West to US Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried. Two days later, on 17 December, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the demands in the form of two draft treaties with NATO and the US, proposing limits on their influence and activities in Europe. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that "The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous". Ryabkov also said that Russia was ready to begin negotiations as soon as 18 December, and suggested Geneva as a possible venue.
The first draft treaty, titled "Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization", included the following provisions, among others:
that NATO members commit to no further enlargement of the alliance, including in particular to Ukraine that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997 a ban on deployment of intermediate-range missiles in areas where they could reach the other side's territory a ban on any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia consultative mechanisms, such as the NATO–Russia Council, and on the establishment of a hotline
The second, titled "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees", included the following:
a requirement that both countries "not implement security measures ... that could undermine core security interests of the other Party" a requirement that the United States undertake to prevent further NATO enlargement a ban on deployment of US intermediate-range missiles in Europe limits on heavy bombers and warships operating in international waters within range of the other side a requirement that both side's nuclear weapons only be deployed on national territory
Reception