Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election

In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Opinion polling near elections by top Pakistani election surveyors namely Gallup Pakistan, Center for Public Opinion Research, Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) and IRIS showed that PMLN has regained its position against its rival PTI since June 2023, mainly due to return of Nawaz Sharif from exile and Supreme court’s decision disallowing bat symbol. Center for Public Opinion Research conducted a public opinion survey of the central Punjab a week before the 2024 elections where the Majority 41% of the respondents said that they will vote for PMLN during the upcoming general elections, while 34% said PTI and 7% said they will vote for TLP in upcoming general elections. As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has emerged most popular party in Punjab province which have majority of seats in Pakistan National assembly comparable with 2013's elections when they received 41% of votes and now, they are standing around the same level at 45%. Whereas PTI support is steady at 35% as comparing to last July 2018 elections in Punjab. https://cpor.com.pk/ https://cpor.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Political-Pulse-of-Central-Punjab.pdf gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/PWR-Jan-2024-For-Public-Release-.pdf A Public Opinion Survey of Voters of Punjab (Election 2024) (ipor.com.pk)

National Assembly Voting intention

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide

Last dateof pollingPolling firmLinkPTIPML(N)PPPMMATLPOtherLeadMarginof errorSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-voters30 June 2023Gallup PakistanPDF42%20%12%4%4%5%22%±2.5%3,50013% IPORPDF 39%33%12%7%4%5%6%±2 - 3% 2,00325% IPOR PDF35%33%19%6%4%3%2%±2 - 3%3,50916%Gallup PakistanPDF34% 33%15%6%3%9%1%±3 - 5%5,68833% IPOR PDF31%33%17%3%3%11%1%2%±2 - 3%3,76911% IPOR PDF36%38%13%4%3%6%2%±3.22%2,00332% IPOR PDF33%38%15%3%3%8%5%±2.95%2,02426% IPOR PDF 24%27%11%3%2%33%3%±2.38% 1,702N/A Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28%15%5%21%3%±3 - 5% ~1,400N/A IPOR /IRIPDF 43% 27%15%1%1%11%1%16%±2.05% 3,99122% 2018 ElectionsECP31.8% 24.3%13.0%4.8%4.2%10.3%11.5%7.5%N/A53,123,733N/A

Punjab Polling firmLast dateof pollingLinkPTIPML(N)PPPTLPLeadSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-votersIPOR PDF 35%45%8%5%4%8%33133%Gallup Pakistan10 January 2024PDF34%32%11%2%N/A23%Gallup Pakistan30 June 2023PDF49%33%5%7%6%16%N/AN/AIPOR PDF 34%42%6%2%16%8%~1,900Gallup Pakistan PDF 35%43%7%3%9%3%8%~3,10031%IPOR PDF 31%46%5%3%15%15%2,035 rowspan="2" IPOR PDF 26%39%5%2%27%1%13%1,0892018 Elections ECP33.6% 31.7%5.4%5.7%4.8%18.8%1.9%33,218,101

Sindh Polling firmLast dateof pollingLinkPTIPPPMQM(P)MMALeadSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-votersGallup Pakistan10 January 2024PDF19%42%4%16%23%N/A16%Gallup Pakistan30 June 2023PDF43.4%42.2%2.4%1.2%10.8%1.2%N/A17%IPOR PDF17%44%5%34%27%~810N/AGallup PakistanPDF30%34%3%3%28%2%4%~1,30039%IPOR PDF13%44%7%36%31%867rowspan="2" IPOR PDF 13%22%1%3%61%9%4672018 Elections ECP14.5%38.4% 7.7%6.1%25.9%7.4%23.6%10,025,437N/A

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Polling firmLast dateof pollingLinkPTIPPPMMAANPPML(N)LeadSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-votersGallup Pakistan10 January 2024PDF45%7%18%7%9%6%27%N/A8%Gallup Pakistan30 June 2023PDF81.2%2.4%1.2%1.2%14.1%0.0%67.1%N/A15%IPOR PDF 38% 8%23%8%13%10%15%~600 Gallup Pakistan PDF 44%8%13%6%21%7%1%23%~97028%IPOR PDF 44% 7%17%11%11%10%27%641rowspan="2" IPOR PDF 34% 4%8%3%12%26%21%3312018 Elections ECP39.3%7.5%18.9%9.3%10.7%3.5%10.8%20.4%6,611,287N/A

Balochistan Polling firmLast dateof pollingLinkPTIPPPPML(N)MMABAPBNPNPLeadSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-votersGallup Pakistan30 June 2023PDF36.0%18.0%11.0%7.0%28.0%18%3,500N/A2018 ElectionsECP6.05%3.09%1.54%15.2824.44%9.04%4.91%23.33%16.95%9.16% 1,899,56582,178

Islamabad Capital Territory Polling firmLast dateof pollingLinkPTIPML(N)PPPTLPMMALeadSamplesizeUndecideds &Non-voters2018 ElectionsECP48.24%24.88%12.58%4.66%3.72%1.28%4.64%23.36%445,827

Government approval rating

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister's overall performance since 18 August 2018.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm Last dateof pollingLinkApproveNeutralDisapproveStronglyapproveApproveNeutralDisapproveStronglydisapproveNetMargin of errorSamplesizeGallup Pakistan 32%N/A65%3%11%21%N/A27%38%3%-33%±3 - 5% 1,760NA Imran Khan is removed from Prime Minister officeGallup Pakistan PDF 46%N/A54%N/AN/A-8%±3 - 5% ~800Gallup Pakistan PDF 36%14%48%3%15%21%14%18%30%3%-12%±3 - 5% 5,688Gallup Pakistan PDF 48%N/A45%7%N/A+3%±3 - 5% ~1,200Gallup Pakistan PDF 38%30%31%2%22%16%30%13%18%2%+7%±3 - 5% 1,662IPOR PDF 38%N/A54%7%16%22%N/A17%37%7%-16%±2.18% 2,024Gallup Pakistan PDF 32%N/A66%1%8%24%N/A19%47%1%-34%±3 - 5% 1,208Gallup Pakistan PDF 45%N/A53%2%15%32%N/A16%37%2%-8%±3 - 5% 1,237Gallup Pakistan PDF 45%N/A53%2%21%24%N/A32%21%2%-8%±3 - 5% ~1,400Gallup Pakistan PDF 51%N/A46%3%13%38%N/A26%20%3%+5%±2 - 3% ~1,141IPOR PDF 47%N/A27%26%17%30%N/A18%9%26%+20%±2.17% 2,041Pulse Consultant HTML 51%N/A30%19%N/A+21%±2.07% 2,019IPOR/IRI PDF51%N/A40%5%16%40%N/A28%12%5%+16%±2.05% 3,991

Notes

References