Leadership opinion polling for the 2004 Spanish general election

In the run up to the 2004 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 12 March 2000, to the day the next election was held, on 14 March 2004.

Preferred prime minister The tables below list opinion polling on leader preferences to become prime minister.

Rajoy vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 7 Mar 2004? 35.8 40.7 8.6 14.8 4.9 Opina/Cadena SER 6 Mar 2004? 35.8 39.4 8.7 16.1 3.6 Opina/Cadena SER 5 Mar 2004? 35.8 39.1 8.5 16.6 3.3 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Mar 2004? 36.6 38.1 8.5 16.7 1.5 Opina/Cadena SER 3 Mar 2004? 36.9 37.9 8.5 16.6 1.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 1–3 Mar 2004 2,071 40.6 42.6 16.8 2.0 Noxa/La Vanguardia 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 2,200 41.0 50.0 – 9.0 9.0 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Mar 2004? 36.6 38.0 8.9 16.4 1.4 Opina/Cadena SER 1 Mar 2004? 36.1 38.2 9.7 16.0 2.1 Opina/El País 27 Feb–1 Mar 2004 4,000 33.8 37.6 4.4 24.2 3.8 Opina/Cadena SER 29 Feb 2004? 37.0 37.3 10.6 15.1 0.3 Opina/Cadena SER 28 Feb 2004? 37.2 36.4 11.1 15.4 0.8 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Feb 2004? 37.5 35.9 10.3 16.2 1.6 Opina/Cadena SER 26 Feb 2004 3,000 36.9 37.1 9.1 16.9 0.2 ASEP 16–21 Feb 2004 1,212 34.2 35.1 15.2 15.5 0.9 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 24,109 33.0 34.1 7.7 25.2 1.1 Noxa/La Vanguardia 6–12 Feb 2004 1,800 41.0 49.0 – 10.0 8.0 Opina/Cadena SER 11 Feb 2004 1,000 36.8 38.5 8.3 16.4 1.7 Opina/Cadena SER 31 Jan 2004 1,000 38.2 37.0 5.9 18.9 1.2 Opina/El País 25 Jan 2004 3,000 37.3 35.6 6.0 21.1 1.7 ASEP 19–24 Jan 2004 1,201 34.6 35.3 15.6 14.4 0.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 19–21 Jan 2004 1,501 39.4 42.0 18.6 2.6 Opina/Cadena SER 16 Jan 2004 1,000 39.3 36.7 8.7 15.3 2.6 Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–9 Jan 2004 1,000 47.0 42.0 – 11.0 5.0 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Jan 2004? 38.5 38.6 4.6 18.3 0.1 Opina/Cadena SER 19 Nov 2003 1,000 38.2 37.1 4.9 19.8 1.1 Opina/Cadena SER 24 Sep 2003 1,000 36.5 36.9 5.9 20.7 0.4 Vox Pública/El Periódico 22–24 Sep 2003 1,502 43.1 38.2 18.7 4.9 Opina/Cadena SER 10 Sep 2003? 38.8 36.8 3.9 20.5 2.0 Opina/El País 7 Sep 2003 1,000 39.1 36.8 3.7 20.4 2.3 Vox Pública/El Periódico 23–25 Jun 2003 1,502 35.9 50.2 13.9 14.3 Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–24 Apr 2003 1,000 38.0 53.0 – 9.0 15.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 1,503 28.3 57.9 13.8 29.6 Opina/El País 25–26 Mar 2003 1,000 25.0 40.5 2.8 31.7 15.5 Opina/El País 3 Feb 2003 1,000 24.6 37.3 1.6 36.5 12.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 13–16 Jan 2003 1,501 32.7 50.2 17.1 17.5 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 29.1 41.8 1.2 27.9 12.7 Opina/El País 23–24 Nov 2002 1,000 28.7 39.8 0.8 30.7 11.1 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 34.4 41.6 0.6 23.4 7.2 Vox Pública/El Periódico 7–9 Oct 2002 1,507 31.2 51.0 17.8 19.8 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 30.8 42.0 1.8 25.4 11.2 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 28.6 40.2 1.8 29.5 11.6 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 27.0 36.7 3.8 32.5 9.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 24–26 Jun 2002 1,504 31.3 48.5 20.2 17.2 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 30.1 34.0 2.0 33.9 3.9 Vox Pública/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2002 1,510 29.4 48.6 22.0 19.2 Vox Pública/El Periódico 4–5 Feb 2002 1,506 31.6 51.1 17.3 19.5 Vox Pública/El Periódico 22–23 Oct 2001 1,509 29.9 48.4 21.7 18.5 Vox Pública/El Periódico 25–28 Jun 2001 1,506 25.4 51.9 22.7 26.5 Vox Pública/El Periódico 16–18 Apr 2001 1,514 28.4 45.5 26.1 17.1 Vox Pública/El Periódico 29–31 Jan 2001 1,519 25.0 49.6 25.4 24.6 Vox Pública/El Periódico 30–31 Oct 2000 1,210 27.8 44.7 27.5 16.9

Mayor Oreja vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Vox Pública/El Periódico 23–25 Jun 2003 1,502 38.4 48.2 13.4 9.8 Vox Pública/El Periódico 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 1,503 32.3 54.9 12.8 22.6 Opina/El País 25–26 Mar 2003 1,000 26.7 39.8 2.7 30.8 13.1 Opina/El País 3 Feb 2003 1,000 29.4 36.1 1.8 32.7 6.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 13–16 Jan 2003 1,501 37.2 46.2 16.6 9.0 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 29.5 42.7 1.6 26.2 13.2 Opina/El País 23–24 Nov 2002 1,000 29.8 40.1 0.8 29.3 10.3 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 35.7 40.5 0.5 23.3 4.8 Vox Pública/El Periódico 7–9 Oct 2002 1,507 37.2 45.9 16.9 8.7 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 33.9 40.1 1.7 24.3 6.2 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 28.9 39.8 2.0 29.3 10.9 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 30.2 35.9 2.9 31.0 5.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 24–26 Jun 2002 1,504 38.4 43.7 17.9 5.3 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 31.4 33.9 1.9 32.8 2.5 Vox Pública/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2002 1,510 36.8 43.2 20.0 6.4 Vox Pública/El Periódico 4–5 Feb 2002 1,506 38.6 44.5 16.9 5.9

Rato vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Vox Pública/El Periódico 23–25 Jun 2003 1,502 35.4 49.8 14.8 14.4 Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–24 Apr 2003 1,000 38.0 55.0 – 7.0 17.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 1,503 29.1 58.0 12.9 28.9 Opina/El País 25–26 Mar 2003 1,000 24.6 40.0 2.9 32.5 15.4 Opina/El País 3 Feb 2003 1,000 26.1 36.0 2.1 35.8 9.9 Vox Pública/El Periódico 13–16 Jan 2003 1,501 32.3 49.8 17.9 17.5 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 28.9 42.4 1.8 26.9 13.5 Opina/El País 23–24 Nov 2002 1,000 27.8 40.0 0.8 31.4 12.2 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 32.9 42.6 0.5 24.0 9.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 7–9 Oct 2002 1,507 32.2 49.8 18.0 17.6 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 30.4 42.5 1.6 25.5 12.1 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 27.0 41.2 1.9 29.9 14.2 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 26.8 36.8 3.9 32.5 10.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 24–26 Jun 2002 1,504 31.4 48.9 19.7 17.5 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 28.9 34.3 2.5 34.3 5.4 Vox Pública/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2002 1,510 31.1 48.1 20.8 17.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 4–5 Feb 2002 1,506 32.3 49.7 18.0 17.4 Vox Pública/El Periódico 22–23 Oct 2001 1,509 30.6 48.5 20.9 17.9 Vox Pública/El Periódico 25–28 Jun 2001 1,506 30.9 48.2 20.9 17.3 Vox Pública/El Periódico 16–18 Apr 2001 1,514 31.0 43.6 25.4 12.6 Vox Pública/El Periódico 29–31 Jan 2001 1,519 30.9 46.3 22.8 15.4 Vox Pública/El Periódico 30–31 Oct 2000 1,210 35.6 39.1 25.3 3.5

Gallardón vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 28.4 42.6 1.4 27.6 14.2 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 32.2 43.8 0.6 23.4 11.6 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 30.7 41.3 1.6 26.3 10.6 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 25.0 39.6 2.4 33.0 14.6

Acebes vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 26.9 42.8 1.7 28.6 15.9 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 30.0 44.6 0.4 25.0 14.6 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 26.4 44.1 1.7 27.8 17.7 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 21.8 42.5 2.2 33.5 20.7

Aznar vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 10 Sep 2003? 39.1 35.9 4.6 20.4 3.2 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Sep 2003 1,000 38.5 38.1 5.7 17.7 0.4 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2003 1,000 36.2 40.0 6.0 17.8 3.8 Vox Pública/El Periódico 23–25 Jun 2003 1,502 39.3 43.7 17.0 4.4 Opina/Cadena SER 11 Jun 2003? 37.4 40.8 5.2 16.6 3.4 Opina/Cadena SER 28 May 2003? 36.8 42.4 2.9 17.9 5.6 Opina/Cadena SER 15 May 2003? 35.1 39.7 4.2 21.0 4.6 Opina/Cadena SER 23 Apr 2003? 29.5 41.9 3.6 25.0 12.4 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Apr 2003? 26.9 49.8 4.0 19.3 22.9 Vox Pública/El Periódico 31 Mar–2 Apr 2003 1,503 28.7 54.0 17.3 25.3 Opina/Cadena SER 21 Mar 2003? 26.6 43.5 4.4 25.5 16.9 Opina/Cadena SER 8 Mar 2003? 26.0 47.6 4.2 22.2 21.6 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 32.6 38.3 4.6 24.5 5.7 Opina/Cadena SER 21 Jun 2002? 29.5 35.3 6.6 28.6 5.8 Opina/Cadena SER 5 Jun 2002 1,000 33.1 33.4 3.0 30.5 0.3 Opina/Cadena SER 22 May 2002 1,000 29.8 39.3 2.8 28.1 9.5 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 36.1 35.3 3.1 25.5 0.8 Opina/Cadena SER 24 Apr 2002 1,000 35.2 34.5 4.4 28.9 0.7 Vox Pública/El Periódico 22–23 Oct 2001 1,509 40.3 41.4 18.3 1.1 Vox Pública/El Periódico 25–28 Jun 2001 1,506 38.1 43.3 18.6 5.2 Opina/Cadena SER 14 May 2001 1,000 36.4 33.5 7.7 22.4 2.9 Opina/Cadena SER 24 Apr 2001 1,000 32.1 34.1 5.4 28.4 2.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 16–18 Apr 2001 1,514 37.6 40.3 22.1 2.7 Opina/Cadena SER 11 Apr 2001? 32.2 34.9 4.1 28.8 2.7 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Apr 2001? 31.9 35.9 5.0 27.1 4.0 Opina/Cadena SER 7 Mar 2001? 34.6 36.4 3.5 25.5 2.2 Opina/Cadena SER 21 Feb 2001 1,000 31.9 37.5 4.6 26.0 5.6 Opina/Cadena SER 7 Feb 2001? 31.9 34.0 6.3 27.8 2.1 Vox Pública/El Periódico 29–31 Jan 2001 1,519 37.7 42.7 19.6 5.0 Opina/Cadena SER 24 Jan 2001? 30.5 34.3 5.8 29.4 3.8 Opina/Cadena SER 10 Jan 2001? 30.5 37.3 5.0 27.2 6.8 Vox Pública/El Periódico 30–31 Oct 2000 1,210 40.6 38.6 20.8 2.0

Predicted prime minister The tables below list opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become prime minister.

Rajoy vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 7 Mar 2004? 68.2 13.0 0.7 18.0 55.2 Opina/Cadena SER 6 Mar 2004? 67.9 13.2 0.9 18.0 54.7 Opina/Cadena SER 5 Mar 2004? 66.0 13.3 1.0 19.8 52.7 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Mar 2004? 66.4 13.1 1.0 19.4 53.3 Opina/Cadena SER 3 Mar 2004? 65.2 12.6 1.0 21.2 52.6 Vox Pública/El Periódico 1–3 Mar 2004 2,071 68.8 11.8 19.4 57.0 Noxa/La Vanguardia 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 2,200 72.0 18.0 – 10.0 54.0 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Mar 2004? 65.2 12.4 0.9 21.4 52.8 Opina/Cadena SER 1 Mar 2004? 64.4 12.7 1.1 21.8 51.7 Opina/El País 27 Feb–1 Mar 2004 4,000 65.7 11.6 0.2 22.5 54.1 Opina/Cadena SER 29 Feb 2004? 64.9 13.5 1.4 20.3 51.4 Opina/Cadena SER 28 Feb 2004? 65.2 13.7 1.4 19.6 51.5 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Feb 2004? 65.3 13.3 1.3 20.2 52.0 Opina/Cadena SER 26 Feb 2004 3,000 65.4 13.3 0.9 20.4 52.1 ASEP 16–21 Feb 2004 1,212 67.8 12.4 1.6 18.2 55.4 Noxa/La Vanguardia 6–12 Feb 2004 1,800 72.0 20.0 – 8.0 52.0 Opina/Cadena SER 11 Feb 2004 1,000 67.7 13.7 0.7 17.9 54.0 Opina/Cadena SER 31 Jan 2004 1,000 69.0 13.4 0.6 17.0 55.6 Opina/El País 25 Jan 2004 3,000 66.4 11.7 0.3 21.7 54.7 ASEP 19–24 Jan 2004 1,201 55.6 16.8 4.0 23.5 38.8 Vox Pública/El Periódico 19–21 Jan 2004 1,501 68.8 16.7 14.5 52.1 Opina/Cadena SER 16 Jan 2004 1,000 65.7 15.2 0.7 18.4 50.5 Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–9 Jan 2004 1,000 79.0 14.0 – 7.0 65.0 Opina/Cadena SER 2 Jan 2004? 68.6 10.5 0.7 20.2 58.1 Opina/Cadena SER 19 Nov 2003 1,000 72.9 9.7 0.5 16.9 63.2 Opina/Cadena SER 24 Sep 2003 1,000 65.8 14.6 0.3 19.3 51.2 Opina/Cadena SER 10 Sep 2003? 66.1 14.4 0.4 19.1 51.7 Opina/El País 7 Sep 2003 1,000 59.7 17.1 23.2 42.6 Opina/El País 25–26 Mar 2003 1,000 20.9 41.6 0.8 36.7 20.7 Opina/El País 3 Feb 2003 1,000 28.5 31.7 0.9 38.9 3.2 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 34.0 32.9 0.5 32.6 1.1 Opina/El País 23–24 Nov 2002 1,000 31.7 32.7 0.2 35.4 1.0 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 41.1 30.6 0.3 28.0 10.5 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 36.5 32.2 0.3 30.9 4.3 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 37.8 31.3 0.3 30.6 6.5 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 35.5 27.6 0.9 36.0 7.9 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 39.9 24.2 0.1 35.8 15.7

Mayor Oreja vs. Zapatero Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/El País 25–26 Mar 2003 1,000 22.5 41.9 0.6 35.0 19.4 Opina/El País 3 Feb 2003 1,000 33.7 30.3 0.9 35.1 3.4 Opina/Cadena SER 4 Dec 2002 1,000 34.2 35.0 0.5 30.3 0.8 Opina/El País 23–24 Nov 2002 1,000 34.5 30.9 0.4 34.2 3.6 Opina/Cadena SER 9 Oct 2002 1,000 43.1 29.8 0.2 26.9 13.3 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002? 41.5 29.9 0.4 28.3 11.6 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Aug 2002 1,000 37.1 32.3 0.5 30.0 4.9 Opina/Cadena SER 27 Jun 2002 1,000 41.0 25.1 1.1 32.8 15.9 Opina/Cadena SER 8 May 2002 1,000 44.0 22.6 0.7 32.7 21.4

Rato vs. Zapatero