Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls were declared candidates or had received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

According to NPR's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Limitations Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on last vote. This can introduce new errors if voters misstate their previous votes. When used for the 2024 presidential election it had produced results closer to the 2020 presidential election than the 2022 mid-term election.

Forecasts Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" "lean" or "leans": slight advantage "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity.

State Last pollclosing time PVI 2020result 2020margin IE Cook Sabato CNNDDHQ538Economist Alaska3 Nov 6 01:00 am 52.8% R 10.06%

| Arizona11 Nov 5 09:00 pm 49.4% D 0.31%

| Colorado10 Nov 5 09:00 pm 55.4% D 13.50%

| Florida30 Nov 5 08:00 pm 51.2% R 3.36%

| Georgia16 Nov 5 07:00 pm 49.5% D 0.24%

| Iowa6 Nov 5 09:00 pm 53.1% R 8.20%

| Kansas6 Nov 5 09:00 pm 56.1% R 14.63%

| Maine2 Nov 5 08:00 pm 53.1% D 9.07%

| ME–021 Nov 5 08:00 pm 52.3% R 7.44%

| Michigan15 Nov 5 09:00 pm 50.6% D 2.78%

| Minnesota10 Nov 5 09:00 pm 52.4% D 7.11%

| NE–011 Nov 5 09:00 pm 14.92%

| NE–021 Nov 5 09:00 pm 6.50%

| Nevada6 Nov 5 10:00 pm 50.1% D 2.39%

| New Hampshire4 Nov 5 08:00 pm 52.7% D 7.35%

| New Mexico5 Nov 5 09:00 pm 54.3% D 10.79%

| North Carolina16 Nov 5 07:30 pm 49.9% R 1.35%

| Ohio17 Nov 5 07:30 pm 53.3% R 8.03%

| Oregon8 Nov 5 11:00 pm 56.4% D 16.08%

| Pennsylvania19 Nov 5 08:00 pm 50.0% D 1.16%

| Texas40 Nov 5 09:00 pm 52.1% R 5.58%

| Virginia13 Nov 5 07:00 pm 54.1% D 10.11%

| Wisconsin10 Nov 5 09:00 pm 49.5% D 0.63%

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

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