Severe Tropical Cyclones Judy and Kevin were a pair of intense tropical cyclones that made landfall on the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu within 48 hours of each other in March 2023. They were the fourth and fifth named storms of the 2022–23 South Pacific cyclone season respectively, as well as the second and third severe tropical cyclones of the season. By the end of February, Judy had affected the Solomon Islands, and shortly after, Kevin began to affect the country.

The origins of the tropical cyclones started with Judy forming as a tropical disturbance in the South Pacific basin southeast of Wallis and Futuna on 23 February. After continuous development from very warm sea surface temperatures, the system was classified as a tropical depression on the 26th by the Fiji Meteorological Service, shortly before the agency further upgraded its status to Category 1 the next day and assigned the name Judy to the storm. That same day, a tropical low in the Australian region formed northeast of Cooktown, Queensland. On 28 February, Judy made landfall in Efate in Vanuatu before rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone on 1 March. The tropical low exited the region the same day, and entered the same basin as Judy, becoming marked as a tropical depression. The tropical depression strengthened and attained Category 1 strength and receive the name Kevin. Judy began to weaken from wind shear before transitioning to a subtropical cyclone, as Kevin began to also rapidly intensify from the warm waters and outflow. Kevin moved over Erromango and Tanna Island of Vanuatu on 3 March. Kevin became a Category 5 in the FMS scale on 4 March, before Kevin's structure began to rapidly degrade. Kevin underwent the same fate as Judy as it dissipated on 6 March. Kevin continued to degenerate, before its remnants were last marked on 12 March.

The nations were pounded by powerful winds and destructive seas. Vanuatu was heavily affected, being struck by both cyclones two days apart. The government asked Australia and New Zealand for aid shortly after Judy's passage. During 3 March, as Kevin was impacting the islands, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake hit just west of Espiritu Santo, and then a magnitude 5.5 earthquake aftershock hit the island shortly after. Nonetheless, no deaths or significant injuries have been reported in connection with either cyclone. Total damages from the two cyclones is estimated to reach 51.2 billion vatu (US$433 million).

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Meteorological history Judy

On 23 February, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that Tropical Disturbance 08F had developed about to the southeast of Halalo in Wallis and Futuna. At this stage, the disturbance was poorly organised as the systems low-level circulation was fully exposed, while atmospheric convection was building over the circulation's northern and eastern quadrants. Over the next couple of days, the system slowly moved westwards and gradually consolidated within a marginal environment for tropical cyclogenesis, with very warm sea surface temperatures of being offset by moderate to high levels of vertical wind shear.

During 26 February, as the disturbance continued to develop, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert (TCFA) on the system, while the FMS reported that 08F had developed into a tropical depression. At around 1100 VUT (00:00 UTC) on 27 February, the JTWC classified the depression as Tropical Cyclone 15P and initiated advisories on it, after they had received a bullseye ASCAT-B image which showed that winds of up to were occurring in the systems eastern quadrant. At around the same time, the FMS reported that the system had developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and named it Judy, while it was located about to the southeast of Fatutaka in the Solomon Islands. The cyclone then began to consolidate, with deepening central convection as it moved southwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its southeast.

By 09:00 UTC on 28 February, Judy had strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS). Judy further developed due to high sea surface temperatures of , leading to the FMS to upgrade its status to Category 2 tropical cyclone the same day, before upgrading further to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone on 28 February. Continuing to rapidly intensify, Judy then strengthened into a Category 2-equivalent cyclone. At around 22:00 UTC that same day, Judy made landfall on the island of Efate in Vanuatu, with 1-minute sustained winds of . On 1 March, the FMS reported that Judy had become a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC followed suit, upgrading the system to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone. Judy then reached its peak intensity at 12:00 UTC that same day, with 10-minute sustained winds of , and 1-minute sustained winds of . However, increasing wind shear soon took a toll on the system, and by 2 March, the FMS reported that Judy's winds had bottomed to , becoming a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. At the same time, the JTWC downgraded the system to a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone.

Turning southeastward, Judy further weakened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone, as unfavorable environment that consisted of cooling sea surface temperatures and high wind shear unraveled the storm's central convection. At the same time, the FMS passed the responsibility of warning the system to the New Zealand MetService, as it left their area of responsibility. At 06:00 UTC the next day, the MetService downgraded Judy to a Category 2 tropical cyclone. Three hours later, the JTWC reclassified Judy as a subtropical system, noting its central convection had been severely sheared to the southeast, partially exposing its low-level circulation center, along with significant erosion of its western peripheries due to an intrusion of a mid-level trough to its southwest. The system was subsequently last noted by MetService on 5 March, while it was located about to the south-west of Tahiti in French Polynesia.

Kevin

On 27 February, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that Tropical Low 18U had developed off the coast of Queensland, Australia, about to the northeast of Cooktown. At this stage, atmospheric convection was flaring over the system's poorly organised low level circulation centre, while it was located within an area of environmental conditions which were becoming more favourable for tropical cyclogenesis. Over the next day, the system gradually developed further, as it moved north-eastwards and passed about to the southwest of Tagula Island in Papua New Guinea. The low subsequently started to move south-eastwards along the subtropical ridge of high pressure and passed near or over Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands on 1 March, as it moved into the Fiji Meteorological Service's (FMS) area of responsibility. Later that day, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories on the depression and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 16P, after the system's structure had significantly improved as convection wrapped into and consolidated over the low-level circulation. This was followed by the FMS who named the system Kevin, after it had become a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.

Throughout the following day, the newly named system moved south-eastwards and gradually intensified further, before it intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, while it was located about to the southwest of Luganville in the island nation of Vanuatu. During 3 March, Kevin continued to intensify with an eye feature appearing on satellite imagery, before it passed very near or over the islands of Erromango and Tanna Island as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. After the system had moved back over open waters and away from Vanuatu, Kevin underwent a period of rapid intensification, before at 0000UTC on 4 March the JTWC reported that Kevin had peaked with 1-minute sustained winds of , which made it equivalent to a category 4 hurricane on the SSHWS. Later that day the FMS followed suit and reported that Kevin had peaked as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone with 10-minute sustained winds of , as it passed about to the west of Noumea in New Caledonia.

At around 21:00 UTC on 4 March, the FMS reported that Kevin had weakened into a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone and passed the primary warning responsibility to MetService as it moved below 25S and out of its area of responsibility. However, cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear made the system weaken to a Category 4-equivalent tropical cyclone nine hours later, as the storm's structure began to unravel on satellite imagery. By 18:00 UTC that same day, the FMS downgraded Kevin to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone, with the JTWC subsequently downgrading the system to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone, noting the significant deterioration of its convective structure.

At the same time, the JTWC further downgraded Kevin to a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone, as it continued to rapidly weaken. By 06:00 UTC that same day, the MetService reported that Kevin further weakened to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC subsequently downgraded the system to a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone, before reclassifying Kevin as a subtropical cyclone and issuing their final advisory nine hours later, as the low-level circulation center became partially exposed due to convection becoming decoupled southeastwards. MetService further downgraded Kevin to a Category 2 tropical cyclone at 18:00 UTC that same day, before it transitioned into a subtropical cyclone on 6 March. Over the next couple of days, MetService continued to monitor Kevin's subtropical remnants, before they were last noted on 8 March, when they were located about to the northwest of Wellington, New Zealand.

Effects

Solomon Islands On 26 February, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service (SIMS) started to issue special weather bulletins, which warned that Judy was expected to cause gale-force winds, rough seas, moderate to heavy swells and coastal flooding over southern parts of Temotu Province within 12 - 24 hours. They also noted that strong winds of , moderate to rough seas, heavy rain and thunderstorms were expected to develop over most provinces, as Kevin's precursor tropical low moved towards the islands of Rennell and Bellona Province. After Judy had been named, the SIMS issued a tropical cyclone warning for Temotu Province and a tropical disturbance warning for the rest of the Solomon Islands.

Cyclone Judy impacted the Solomon Islands at the end of February while the system that became Kevin started affecting the nation soon after. Strong winds and damaging waves battered the many islands of the nation for days. Schools and businesses were shuttered across Honiara due to the winds. The vessel M/V Vatud Star ran aground due to a rogue wave. A small boat carrying passengers en route from Honiara to Central Province sank due to rough waves, but all of them managed to swim to safety. Tidal waves produced by the storms destroyed 12 homes in West Honiara. Communications with Lata were interrupted.

Vanuatu Preparations