Air travel demand mitigation or aviation demand reduction or air travel demand reduction is a part of transportation demand management and climate change mitigation.
Inhibition of a large or general growth in demand or reduction of demand and need for flights is considered an important part of climate change mitigation as air travel has a substantial impact on the climate. Changes in "behavioral travel parameters can significantly impact the projections for travel demand and the associated energy use and emissions".
Significance to global air travel emissions reduction Aviation is one of three sectors identified in a study where "demand-side options" can have a large effect in "reaching levels". According to a study, the attainment of the 1.5–2 °C global temperature goal necessitates substantial demand reductions in the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight, and industry, should large-scale negative emissions not be realized. According to the IMAGE model used to project scenarios aimed at limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, it is suggested that achieving deep decarbonization within the aviation sector within the specified timeframe is contingent upon a reduction in air travel in certain markets. The decreases in carbon intensity of aviation energy in net-zero scenarios "are heavily dependent on projected changes in aviation demand and energy intensity". The significant challenges of sustainable aviation fuel expansion, including food security, local community impacts, and land use issues, underscore the importance of simultaneous demand reduction efforts. For instance, according to a report by the Royal Society, to produce enough biofuel to supply the UK's aviation industry would require using half of Britain's farming land which would put major pressures on food supplies.
Tourism is projected to generate up to 40% of total global emissions by 2050. Of climate change mitigation consumption options investigated by a review, the consumption options with "the highest mitigation potential advocate reduction in car and air travel". A study projected a potential reduction of "transport direct emissions by around 50% in the end of the century compared to the baseline" via combined behavioral factors.
Measures According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, "the greatest Avoid potential" in demand-side mitigation, which consists of Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) options, "comes from reducing long-haul aviation and providing short-distance low-carbon urban infrastructure". It lists the following related mobility measures: Avoid: integrate transport & land use planning, tele-working, fewer long-haul flights, local holidays Shift: from air travel to high-speed rail It found that socio-cultural factors promoting a preference for train travel over long-haul flights have the potential to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions by 10% to 40% by 2050.
Role of targeted measures in demand mitigation
The IPCC report also concluded that "voluntary behaviour change can support emissions reduction, but behaviours that are not convenient to change are unlikely to shift without changes to policy". A study demonstrated varying attitudes towards environmental measures across different contexts. While voluntary measures like carbon offsetting faced skepticism, there was more willingness to accept regulatory measures, including government intervention through taxation. The study concluded that voluntary approaches alone would be insufficient, emphasizing the need for a diverse policy mix to promote behavioral change in public flying habits. The response of governments "has been to encourage voluntary public behaviour change towards lower carbon lifestyles; an approach that has failed to gain traction in the context of discretionary tourist air travel".
Cities can increase the capability of citizens to make sustainable choices such as by "changing urban form to increase locational and mobility options and providing feedback mechanisms to support socio-behavioural change". Socio-politico-technical feedback processes could "be decisive for climate policy and emissions outcomes". A modal shift away from air transport is complicated by that many people are "used to the current affordability, flexibility and speed of air travel" due to which "passenger acceptance will be a significant barrier to modal shifts and lower cruising speed particularly in wealthy nations". Collective efforts to reduce air-travel-related carbon emissions are much more likely to be successful than isolated attempts.
A 2020 study reported that authors "could not locate quantitative research on large-scale modal shifts and demand reduction in aviation, except during the COVID-19 lockdown."
Related policies have been called "travel demand management" (TDM) policies or "mobility management strategies".
Short-haul flight restrictions
Restricting short-haul flights has a relatively high potential for reducing emissions (and non-emission forcing). One approach or element of such restrictions could be short-haul flight bans:
Improvement of train infrastructure
A shift towards high-speed rail could replace air travel. While improvements in rail travel times "have resulted in reductions in short-haul air travel", substitution results vary. Notably, concurrent "expansion of low-cost carriers has led to a significant increase in total European air traffic". Air travel demand decreased significantly after the entry of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. Costs of train trips are often higher but can in some cases "be offset by travelling on an overnight train and avoiding the cost of a hotel room".
In studies up to 2022, levels of air traffic reduction from substitution by rail ranged between 7% and 28% – for example, one study estimated that about 17% of intra-European short- and medium-haul traffic can be substituted by rail with an up to 20% increase in travel time. Not considering complementary concurrent measures, another study estimated that air traffic could be reduced by 25% if high-speed rail were available between all major cities. One study from 2005 found there "recently been a rather large reduction of between 34% and 75% in domestic aviation demand in Korea", identifying "the introduction of several new highway services and the fact that Korea Train Express (KTX) began operating a route between Seoul and Daegu in April 2004" as the "two primary causes".
Train connections can reduce feeder flights.
Regional travel Local holidays can avoid emissions. Boosting or building "travel bubbles" (limited-range tourism) "through other means of transport like train services with landlocked countries" and encouraging more domestic tourism could help in substantial reductions of air travel demand. Long-distance travel can be replaced with travel along short-haul regional bubbles.
A study suggests that a stronger demand for medium- to long-haul air transport is the main driver of the tourism industry's increasing greenhouse gas emissions. A 2014 study notes that the travel sector could compensate for losses from distant-destination travel mitigation, for instance, "by investing in less carbon-intensive (domestic, short-haul) tourism or by raising a small fee on long-haul travel to contribute to a special poverty alleviation fund. It also found that a "reduction in tourist travel distances" has significantly less severe impacts than previously envisioned". It "strongly recommended" that future research examines "impacts of specific policies aimed at reducing the growth of tourism transport demand for long- and medium-haul travel based on the adoption of a more holistic approach and the inclusion of economic aspects in a more systematic manner". Moreover, there also are "negative impacts of the current growth of air transport on the tourism economies in both poor and wealthy countries" as many countries "may attract additional tourists by reducing the distances that people travel", specifically those viably reachable by high-speed rail or other low-carbon modes of transport from domestic and nearby countries.
A study indicates promotion of low-carbon travel markets could play a role and noted that "[l]ong-haul markets are [...] generally much more carbon-intensive than visitors from proximal (nearby) source markets, even though they tend to stay longer and spend more per journey". It also noted that destination country governments could contribute to optimizing the demand mix proactively and that the "current approach toward the tourism market mix is largely passive".
Changes to international conferences Most international professional or academic conference attendants travel by plane, conference travel is often regarded as an employee benefit as costs are supported by employers. The Tyndall Centre has reported means to change common institutional and professional practices.Le Quéré, C. et al. 2015. Towards a culture of low-carbon research for the 21st Century.Nudging Climate Scientists To Follow Their Own Advice On Flying. FiveThirtyEight. by Christie Aschwanden. 26 March 2015. Environmental impacts of in-person conferences can also be reduced via "multi-site" or "multi-hub hybrid conferences" with "spatially optimized conference hubs".
Air travel infrastructure Building new or larger airports increase greenhouse gas emissions. A "limit to airport expansion" could suppress demand. Concerning constraints to individual airports' capacities, one study suggests that "airlines would adjust operations within a constrained flight network in such a way as to avoid airports with high delays". The large expansion in air travel over the last decades has been facilitated by the increased network of airports along with the "relative cheapness of flights (compared to other travel modes), greater incomes and more available leisure time".
Economics
Changes in prices – mainly concurrent increases and decreases in ticket prices – "will impact air transport demand and supply characteristics", making travelers consider alternative travel modes. While demand does not appear to be sensitive to small incremental price changes, "particularly for long-haul and business trips", more significant price increases could significantly suppress demand. High carbon taxes may be needed for shifts to high-speed trains. Distance-based air passenger taxes through increased ticket prices could reduce demand, depending on the tax level and price elasticity. Taxes may be especially effective "if there is a direct link between punishing polluting behaviour and investments that benefit many". Targeted interventions could make not only air travel more expensive but also train tickets cheaper using, for instance, subsidies.
Humans who travel have a "Travel Time Budget (TTB) and Travel Money Budget (TMB)".
Norms, social feedback, psychology, and awareness Current norms may promote unsustainable behaviors like frequent flying. Air travel is relevant to contemporary social capital generation. (e.g. see standard of living or life activities, interpersonal attraction, social norm, and motivations for travel)
The failure of voluntary policy-independent changes has been partly explained by "contemporary neoliberal western lifestyles" which encourage "unrestrained consumption" of the socioeconomic system's products. The "deeply embedded nature of contemporary tourist air travel in developed societies" has been described as 'air travel addiction' which could be compared to other public health issues and related lobbies. Social media "has been instrumental in creating an interest in frequent air travel". A study notes that declining real cost of air travel "has 'normalized' flying into an everyday activity.