The 2024 Arizona Senate election was held on November 5, 2024. Voters elected members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections were held on July 30, 2024.
Prior to the elections, the Republican Party held a narrow majority over the Democratic Party, controlling 16 seats to their 14 seats.
Background Partisan Background In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 legislative districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, was the only district Biden won in 2020 which was currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate election.
Background Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.
The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s. Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.
Campaign This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber. If Democrats won both chambers, it would have been the first time that Democrats had a trifecta in the state since 1966.
Predictions Statewide SourceRankingAs of270toWin (flip) November 1, 2024 CNalysis (flip) October 31, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 18, 2024
Competitive districts DistrictIncumbentLast ResultCNalysisNovember 20242ndShawnna Bolick51.84% R (flip)4thChristine Marsh50.48% D 9thEva Burch52.47% D 13thJ. D. Mesnard51.73% R 16thT. J. Shope55.71% R 17thJustine Wadsack51.24% R (flip)
Overview Party Candidates Votes Seats % Before After +/– Republican 25 1,587,610 53.40 16 17 1 Democratic 26 1,377,346 46.33 14 13 1 Green 1 2,076 0.07 0 0 Independent 1 6,061 0.20 0 0 Total 2,973,093 100.00 30 30
Closest races Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:
Retiring incumbents
Republicans District 25: Sine Kerr was term-limited. District 27: Anthony Kern ran for the United States House of Representatives. District 30: Sonny Borrelli was term-limited.
Democrats District 8: Juan Mendez was term-limited and ran for the Arizona House of Representatives. District 24: Anna Hernandez ran for the Phoenix City Council.
Incumbents defeated In primaries Republicans District 1: Ken Bennett lost renomination to Mark Finchem. District 17: Justine Wadsack lost renomination to Vince Leach.
In general election Democrats District 4: Christine Marsh was defeated by Republican Carine Werner.
Summary of results by district * – Incumbent lost renomination
† – Incumbent not seeking re-election District Incumbent Party Elected senator Outcome 1st Ken Bennett* Rep Mark Finchem Rep 2nd Shawnna Bolick Rep Shawnna Bolick Rep 3rd John Kavanagh Rep John Kavanagh Rep 4th Christine Marsh Dem Carine Werner Rep 5th Lela Alston Dem Lela Alston Dem 6th Theresa Hatathlie Dem Theresa Hatathlie Dem 7th Wendy Rogers Rep Wendy Rogers Rep 8th Juan Mendez† Dem Lauren Kuby Dem 9th Eva Burch Dem Eva Burch Dem 10th Dave Farnsworth Rep Dave Farnsworth Rep 11th Catherine Miranda Dem Catherine Miranda Dem 12th Mitzi Epstein Dem Mitzi Epstein Dem 13th J. D. Mesnard Rep J. D. Mesnard Rep 14th Warren Petersen Rep Warren Petersen Rep 15th Jake Hoffman Rep Jake Hoffman Rep 16th T. J. Shope Rep T. J. Shope Rep 17th Justine Wadsack* Rep Vince Leach Rep 18th Priya Sundareshan Dem Priya Sundareshan Dem 19th David Gowan Rep David Gowan Rep 20th Sally Ann Gonzales Dem Sally Ann Gonzales Dem 21st Rosanna Gabaldón Dem Rosanna Gabaldón Dem 22nd Eva Diaz Dem Eva Diaz Dem 23rd Brian Fernandez Dem Brian Fernandez Dem 24th Anna Hernandez† Dem Analise Ortiz Dem 25th Sine Kerr† Rep Tim Dunn Rep 26th Flavio Bravo Dem Flavio Bravo Dem 27th Anthony Kern† Rep Kevin Payne Rep 28th Frank Carroll Rep Frank Carroll Rep 29th Janae Shamp Rep Janae Shamp Rep 30th Sonny Borrelli† Rep Hildy Angius Rep
Detailed results District 1 • District 2 • District 3 • District 4 • District 5 • District 6 • District 7 • District 8 • District 9 • District 10 • District 11 • District 12 • District 13 • District 14 • District 15 • District 16 • District 17 • District 18 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 22 • District 23 • District 24 • District 25 • District 26 • District 27 • District 28 • District 29 • District 30__NOTOC__
District 1
Incumbent Senator Ken Bennett faced a strong primary challenge after voting multiple times against conservative bills and stymieing Republican legislation. The first challenger was Steve Zipperman, a previous primary opponent from 2022, and the second was Mark Finchem, Republican nominee for Secretary of State two years prior. Despite the strong possibility of splitting the vote, both Finchem and Zipperman stayed in the race, with Finchem ultimately prevailing by 15.07% over Bennett. This defeat represented the worst primary performance of any incumbent legislator this cycle in either chamber from either party.
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District 2
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District 3
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District 4
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District 5
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District 6
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District 7
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District 8
State representative Melody Hernandez was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary, but withdrew after her nominating petitions were challenged for having an insufficient number of valid signatures. She was replaced by former Tempe City Councilmember Lauren Kuby on the ballot, who was selected by local precinct committee members in a 39–28 vote over fellow state representative Deborah Nardozzi.
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District 9
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District 10
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District 11
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District 12
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District 13
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District 14
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District 15
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District 16
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County results:
District 17
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District 18
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District 19
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District 20
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District 21
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District 22
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District 23
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District 24
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District 25
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District 26
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District 27
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District 28
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District 29
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District 30
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Notes
References