The following is the pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green. Members in italics did not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently held or its replacement. However, the incumbent member for Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons contested the seat of Kiama. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
Liberal/National seats (46)MarginalEast HillsWendy LindsayLIB0.1%Upper HunterDave LayzellNAT0.5%PenrithStuart AyresLIB0.6%GoulburnWendy TuckermanLIB3.1%TweedGeoff ProvestNAT5.0%Winston HillsMark TaylorLIB5.7%Fairly safeHolsworthyMelanie GibbonsLIB6.0%WollondillyNathaniel SmithLIB6.0% v INDRiverstoneKevin ConollyLIB6.2%ParramattaGeoff LeeLIB6.5%OatleyMark CoureLIB6.8%CamdenPeter SidgreavesLIB7.3%RydeVictor DominelloLIB8.9%Myall LakesStephen BromheadNAT9.3%Badgerys CreekTanya DaviesLIB9.7%SafeSouth CoastShelley HancockLIB10.6%Coffs HarbourGurmesh SinghNAT10.8%North ShoreFelicity WilsonLIB11.1% v INDEppingDominic PerrottetLIB11.3%MonaroNichole OverallNAT11.6%KiamaGareth Ward (IND)LIB12.0%TerrigalAdam CrouchLIB12.3%DrummoyneJohn Sidoti (IND)LIB13.6%MirandaEleni PetinosLIB14.4%ClarenceChris GulaptisNAT14.5%ManlyJames GriffinLIB14.6%Lane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB14.7%OxleyMelinda PaveyNAT15.4%AlburyJustin ClancyLIB15.9%HawkesburyRobyn PrestonLIB16.6%HornsbyMatt KeanLIB16.9%BathurstPaul TooleNAT17.9%Very safeDubboDugald SaundersNAT18.1%WahroongaAlister HenskensLIB19.0%CronullaMark SpeakmanLIB19.6%Port MacquarieLeslie Williams (LIB)NAT20.1%VaucluseGabrielle UptonLIB20.6%WilloughbyTim JamesLIB20.7%WakehurstBrad HazzardLIB21.9%PittwaterRob StokesLIB22.4%Castle HillDavid ElliottLIB22.4%KellyvilleRay WilliamsLIB23.1%DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB24.8%CootamundraSteph CookeNAT26.6%TamworthKevin AndersonNAT28.0%Northern TablelandsAdam MarshallNAT33.2% Labor seats (38)MarginalKogarahChris MinnsALP0.1%Leppingtonnew seatALP1.5%HeathcoteLee Evans (LIB)ALP1.7%LismoreJanelle SaffinALP2.0%CoogeeMarjorie O'NeillALP2.3% LondonderryPrue CarALP3.0%BegaMichael HollandALP5.1%StrathfieldJason Yat-Sen LiALP5.2%The EntranceDavid MehanALP5.3%Port StephensKate WashingtonALP5.8%Fairly safe GosfordLiesl TeschALP7.1% MaroubraMichael DaleyALP8.3% ProspectHugh McDermottALP8.6% GranvilleJulia FinnALP9.4%Safe RockdaleSteve KamperALP10.0%SwanseaYasmin CatleyALP10.6% WyongDavid HarrisALP12.9% CharlestownJodie HarrisonALP13.1% Blue MountainsTrish DoyleALP13.6% AuburnLynda VoltzALP13.7% MaitlandJenny AitchisonALP14.7% Macquarie FieldsAnoulack ChanthivongALP14.9% CanterburySophie CotsisALP15.3% HeffronRon HoenigALP15.3%CampbelltownGreg WarrenALP16.0%BlacktownStephen BaliALP16.7%FairfieldGuy ZangariALP16.8%LiverpoolPaul LynchALP17.4%NewcastleTim CrakanthorpALP17.5%Very safeKeiraRyan ParkALP18.2%ShellharbourAnna WatsonALP18.4%Mount DruittEdmond AtallaALP18.5% CabramattaNick LalichALP19.3%CessnockClayton BarrALP19.7%BankstownJihad DibALP20.5%Summer HillJo HaylenALP21.6%WollongongPaul ScullyALP22.9%WallsendSonia HorneryALP25.8%Crossbench seats (9)MarginalMurrayHelen Dalton (IND)SFF2.8% v NATBallinaTamara SmithGRN4.9% v NATFairly safeBarwonRoy Butler (IND)SFF6.6% v NATSafeBalmainJamie ParkerGRN10.0% v ALPNewtownJenny LeongGRN11.4% v ALPSydneyAlex GreenwichIND11.8% v LIBOrangePhilip Donato (IND)SFF15.2% v NATWagga WaggaJoe McGirrIND15.5% v NATVery safeLake MacquarieGreg PiperIND23.2% v ALP
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