Eight polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–2026) for the 2026 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Radio New Zealand (RNZ) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The parliament was elected on 14 October 2023, and the election is scheduled to be held on 7 November 2026.

Party vote The parties shown in this section are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and the Opportunity Party (OPP; f.k.a. TOP), Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this section.

Graphical summary

Table of polls

+ Date Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM OPPOthers Lead6 Oct 2026 TVNZ held its first leaders' debate between National Party leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins.1–5 Oct 20261 News–Verian 1,001 29 28 16 9 10 0.6 70.8 12 Oct 2026 Leaders of the GRN, ACT, NZF, TPM, OPP debate in the Stuff Kingmaker's Debate.24 Sep – 1 Oct 2026RNZ–Reid Research 1,000 25.9 30.8 14.8 9 10.6 2 5.5 0.7 4.923–27 Sep 2026 1 News–Verian 1,004 28 28 16 11 9 1.2 61 Tie31 Aug – 27 Sep 2026Roy Morgan 859 31 23.5 16 11 10 2 6.5 0 7.54–11 Sep 2026The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,011 27 28 14 9 13 2 6 2 14–10 Sep 2026Anacta 1,701 30 31 12 8 10 2 7 – 11–3 Sep 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29 25.9 13.9 10.5 8.4 2 4.5 5.9 3.127 Jul – 23 Aug 2026Roy Morgan 858 31 24 15.5 10.5 7.5 1.5 9.5 0.5 714–21 Aug 2026RNZ–Reid Research 1,000 29.1 32.2 10.2 7.7 11.9 3.0 5.3 0.6 3.1 12 Aug 2026 Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a second party leadership vote.8–11 Aug 20261 News–Verian 847 29 30 12 9 8 1.1 82.7 11–11 Aug 2026Talbot Mills 29 34 8 7 13 3 5.2 – 51–4 Aug 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31 27.8 10.1 7.3 9.1 1.5 6.1 2.2 3.229 Jun – 26 Jul 2026Roy Morgan 881 32 25.5 13.5 8.5 8.5 2 8 2 6.510–19 Jul 2026Talbot Mills 31 33 9 7 12 3 4.7 – 22–9 Jul 2026RNZ–Reid Research1,000 28.7 34 10.3 7.8 11.5 2.3 4.7 0.8 5.31–5 Jul 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 30.5 31.5 10.4 6.9 10.8 3.4 3.3 3.2 125 May – 21 Jun 2026Roy Morgan 891 31 25.5 13.5 9.5 10.5 3 6.5 0.5 5.513–17 Jun 20261 News–Verian 1,001 29 32 13 6 11 1.8 4.6 1.5 35–11 Jun 2026The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,038 29 35 10 8 12 2 – 3 61–10 Jun 2026Talbot Mills 1,021 29 34 13 6 12 2.6 3.3 – 54–8 Jun 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia1,000 30.1 32.2 11.5 7.8 11.4 3.1 3.2 0.8 2.1 28 May 2026Budget 2026 is delivered.27 Apr – 24 May 2026Roy Morgan 870 30.5 26.5 12.5 10 11 2.5 6 1 4 11 May 2026Mariameno Kapa-Kingi exits Te Pāti Māori to start Te Tai Tokerau Party.1–10 May 2026Talbot Mills 29 36 9 7 14 2 – – 73–7 May 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia1,000 30 31.9 9.7 6.5 11.7 4.1 2.8 3.3 1.930 Mar – 26 Apr 2026Roy Morgan887 25.5 34 11 10.5 11.5 3 4 0.58.521 Apr 2026 Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a party leadership vote called by himself.16 Apr 2026Talbot Mills 1,082 29 36 7 8 15 1.9 2.3 – 711–15 Apr 20261 News–Verian 1,010 30 37 11 7 10 1.5 3.3 1.2 71–2 Apr 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia1,000 29.8 33.4 7.8 9 13.6 2.6 2.6 1.3 3.623 Feb – 22 Mar 2026Roy Morgan872 26.5 34 11 10 11 3 4 0.57.512–20 Mar 2026RNZ–Reid Research1,000 30.8 35.6 10.1 7 10.6 3.2 2 0.74.82–12 Mar 2026Talbot Mills 1,059 32 35 11 7 11 1.7 2.4 – 3 1–3 Mar 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 28.4 34.4 10.5 7.5 9.7 3.2 1.9 4.3 6 2 Mar 2026 The Strait of Hormuz is closed as part of the Iran war, causing an incoming fuel crisis affecting New Zealand. 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026Roy Morgan 870 31 30 14.5 8 9.5 2.5 40.5 1 6–12 Feb 2026The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,039 30 37 10 6 11 2 – 3 7 7–11 Feb 2026 1 News–Verian 1,003 34 32 11 9 10 2 1 1.7 2 1–3 Feb 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.3 34.1 10.3 6.7 10.5 2.9 1.4 4.2 2.8 6–26 Jan 2026Roy Morgan 881 34.5 30.5 10.5 8.5 9 3 2.51.5 4 16–26 Jan 2026Talbot Mills1,087 31 35 10 8 9 3 –– 4 15–22 Jan 2026RNZ–Reid Research1,000 31.9 35 9.6 7.6 9.8 3 2.30.9 3.1 21 Jan 2026 Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. 14–18 Jan 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.5 34.4 7.7 7 11.9 3 0.7 3.8 2.9 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025Roy Morgan 859 33 32.5 12 7.5 10 2.5 2.5 0 0.55–10 Dec 2025The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,031 30 38 8 8 9 2 – 4 8 5 Dec 2025Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori by the High Court. 3–7 Dec 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 30 31.6 10.8 8.9 8.1 3.1 1.6 6 1.6 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025 1 News–Verian 1,007 36 35 7 10 9 0.6 0.4 2.4 1 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025Roy Morgan 829 33 28 14.5 8 9 2 2.5 3 5 16 Nov 2025Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party. 10 Nov 2025Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori.1–10 Nov 2025Talbot Mills 1000 33 38 9 7 8 2.4 – – 5 2–6 Nov 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 30.2 33.3 9.2 8.6 9.1 3.3 1.2 5.1 3.1 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025Roy Morgan 857 32 30.5 12 8 9.5 2.5 2.5 3 1.51–10 Oct 2025Talbot Mills 1,097 29 35 10 8 12 4 – – 6 4–8 Oct 2025 1 News–Verian 1,014 34 32 11 8 9 2.8 0.8 2.4 23–8 Oct 2025The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,050 31 34 9 9 11 3 – 2 3 1–5 Oct 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29.6 31.2 12 6.6 10.6 4.4 1.6 4 1.6 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025Roy Morgan 870 31.5 28.5 13.5 9 8 5.5 2.5 1.5 3 4–12 Sep 2025RNZ–Reid Research1,000 32.5 34.3 10.9 7.2 8.7 4.1 1.40.9 1.81–10 Sep 2025Talbot Mills 1,000 31 35 10 7 10 4 – – 4 6 Sep 2025Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.1 33.8 10.7 6.7 8.1 4.3 1.1 2.2 0.7 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan 873 29 34 13.5 10.5 7 2.5 3 0.5 51–10 Aug 2025Talbot Mills 1,000 32 34 11 8 9.3 4.4 2.8 – 2 2–6 Aug 2025 1 News–Verian 1,002 34 33 10 8 9 3.7 1.3 1 1 3–5 Aug 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.8 33.6 9.8 8.6 7.8 3.2 2.6 2.6 1.8 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan 832 31 31 11.5 10.5 9.5 3.5 1 2 Tie1–10 Jul 2025Talbot Mills 1,090 32 35 12 8 7 3.8 – – 3 2–6 Jul 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.9 31.6 9.4 9.1 9.8 3.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 26 May – 22 Jun 2025Roy Morgan 812 32 28.5 11 11.5 8 5 3 1 3.512–15 Jun 2025The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,150 32 34 11 8 8 2 – 4 2 7–9 Jun 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.5 34.8 8.2 9.1 6.1 3.3 1.8 3.2 1.3 31 May 2025 David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. 23–30 May 2025RNZ–Reid Research1,008 30.7 33.2 11.6 6.6 9.1 5.5 2.21.1 2.5 24–28 May 2025 1 News–Verian 1,002 34 29 12 8 8 3.7 1.3 3.9 528 Apr – 25 May 2025Roy Morgan 799 31.5 29 11.5 12 6.5 4.5 3 2 2.5 22 May 2025Budget 2025 is delivered. 30 Apr – 4 May 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.6 33.2 9.1 9.5 7.4 3.9 0.5 1.8 1.424 Mar – 20 Apr 2025Roy Morgan 829 31 28.5 14 9 9 4.5 2.5 1.5 2.529 Mar – 2 Apr 20251 News–Verian 1,000 36 32 10 9 7 3.4 2.1 1.3 4 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.5 29.8 11 10 7.4 4.3 1.5 1.4 3.721–27 Mar 2025RNZ–Reid Research 1,000 32.9 32.3 10 9.4 7.2 5 1.8 – 0.624 Feb – 23 Mar 2025Roy Morgan 888 32.5 27.5 14.5 7.5 7 5.5 4 1.5 51–10 Mar 2025Talbot Mills 1,003 31 34 10 10 6.1 4.4 – – 3 2–4 Mar 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.6 34.1 10 7.7 5.1 6.5 0.5 2.5 0.527 Jan – 23 Feb 2025Roy Morgan 888 30.5 29 15.5 11 6 3 2.5 2.5 1.53–7 Feb 20251 News–Verian 1,002 34 33 10 9 5 3.7 1.9 3.6 1 2–4 Feb 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.9 31.3 13.2 10 6.4 4.4 0.5 2.2 0.67–27 Jan 2025Talbot Mills 1,049 33 34 12 9 5.2 4.6 – – 12–26 Jan 2025Roy Morgan 885 32.5 28.5 11.5 9 8.5 6.5 1.5 2 4 9–13 Jan 2025Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29.6 30.9 9.5 10.8 8.1 5.3 2.1 3.7 1.3 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024Roy Morgan 885 31 26 13.5 13 7.5 5.5 1 2.5530 Nov – 4 Dec 20241 News–Verian 1,006 37 29 10 8 6 7 1.5 2 8 1–3 Dec 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.2 26.9 8.3 13 5.4 5.5 1.1 2.27.322–28 Nov 2024Labour–Talbot Mills 31 32 10 10 6 7 – – 126–27 Nov 2024The Post/Freshwater Strategy 1,150 34 31 13 8 6 4 – –3 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024Roy Morgan 866 28.5 28 13.5 9 6.5 9 3.5 20.5 10–19 Nov 2024Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill. 6–10 Nov 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 38.8 31.5 9.3 8.5 6.5 2.5 0.9 2.17.31–10 Nov 2024Talbot Mills 34 33 10 10 7 3.3 – – 1 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024Roy Morgan 883 31 29 14 9 7 5 2 325–9 Oct 20241 News–Verian 1,000 37 29 12 8 5 3.8 2.6 2.3 8 3–7 Oct 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.9 30.3 10.4 9.7 7.6 3 2.5 1.64.6 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024Roy Morgan 902 37.5 23 14 10 7.5 4 2.5 1.514.5 8–10 Sep 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39 26.7 11 8.8 6.8 5 1.1 2.412.31–10 Sep 2024Talbot Mills 37 32 10 8 6.1 3.9 – – 5 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024Roy Morgan 898 36 26.5 13 9.5 7.5 3.5 2.5 1.59.510–14 Aug 20241 News–Verian 1,001 38 30 11 7 6 4.2 1.1 2.8 8 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024Roy Morgan 930 32.5 24 14 11 6.5 6 4.5 1.58.5 4–8 Jul 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 37.6 25.9 12.5 9.1 7.3 3.5 2.4 1.811.7 27 May – 23 Jun 2024Roy Morgan 930 35 27.5 14.5 9 5.5 3.5 2.5 2.57.515–19 Jun 20241 News–Verian 1,002 38 29 13 7 6 3.3 1.5 2.1 9 4–6 Jun 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 35.4 29.4 12.7 9.7 5.6 4.0 0.8 2.46 30 May 2024Budget 2024 is delivered. 22 Apr – 19 May 2024Roy Morgan 925 33.5 30 14 9.5 5.5 3 3 1.53.51–10 May 2024Talbot Mills 35 32 – – – – – – 3 5–7 May 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 37.3 30 10.2 9.4 5.5 3.1 1.4 3.17.330 Apr 2024Labour–Talbot Mills 34 33 12 7 6 4 – – 120–24 Apr 20241 News–Verian1,000 36 30 14 7 4.2 3.7 1.2 3.7 6 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024Roy Morgan 934 36.5 24.5 13 11 5.5 5.5 2 212 2–4 Apr 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 37.1 25.7 14.6 7.2 6.3 4.6 1.6 311.4 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024Roy Morgan 931 38 23 13.5 11.5 6.5 3.5 2.5 115 1–10 Mar 2024Talbot Mills 1,000+ 38 28 14 8 6 – – –10 10 Mar 2024 Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. 3–5 Mar 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 37.4 25.3 11.3 10 7.4 2.5 2.1 412.1 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024Roy Morgan 935 35.5 21.5 15.5 12 7.5 4 2.5 1.51410–14 Feb 20241 News–Verian1,002 38 28 12 8 6 3.7 1.9 2.6 10 1–10 Feb 2024Talbot Mills 38 29 12 7 6.2 4.9 1.4 –9 1–7 Feb 2024Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39.6 27.9 9 13.7 5 2.3 – 2.511.7 30 Jan 2024 James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. 8–28 Jan 2024Roy Morgan 947 38 22 15.5 7.5 6 4.5 4.5 216 8–10 Jan 2024Curia 1,000 41 28.4 9.5 7.8 5.6 3.6 – –12.6 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023Roy Morgan 947 36 22 15.5 9.5 6 5 4 214 3–5 Dec 2023Curia 36.5 28.8 10.8 6.2 8.1 5 – 4.67.7 3 Dec 2023 Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. 27 Nov 2023 Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023Roy Morgan 920 37.5 21 12.5 12.5 8 2.5 3.5 2.516.5 1–6 Nov 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 37 28.3 13.8 8.1 6 3.4 2.9 3.78.7 14 Oct 2023 2023 election result N/A 38.08 26.92 11.61 8.64 6.09 3.08 2.22 3.36 11.16 Date Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM OPP Others Lead

Electorate polling General electorates

Auckland Central DatePolling organisationSample size NAT GRN LAB ACT NZF OPP TPM Lead22–29 Jul 2026Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400Party Vote 28 24 28 7 9 3 2 TieElectorate vote3025235

Hutt South DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT GRN OPP NZF ACT TPM Lead17–19 Sep 2026Victor Consulting 533 Party Vote 36 17 18.5 9 8 3 317.5Electorate vote42~309~12

Kāpiti DatePolling organisationSample size NAT LAB GRN NZF OPP ACT TPM Lead29–31 Jul 2026Community Engagement Limited 821Party Vote 24.131.5 14 9.7 6.5 5.8 1.4 7.4 Electorate Vote33.637.55.94.13.9

Mount Albert