Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

Canadian federal elections have provided the following results in Central Ontario.

Regional profile The region is the central section of Southern Ontario, mainly comprising the rural area around Lake Simcoe. This has traditionally been the most conservative region of Ontario, in sharp contrast to the Greater Toronto Area to the south. It has historically been the backbone of support for the provincial Tories.

The citizens of the region are mostly white, Protestant, and agrarian, with a large number of social conservatives. Some parts of this region are as conservative as rural Alberta. This region was the heartland of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in Ontario, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993—Reform's only victory east of Manitoba, ever. However, due to massive Reform-PC vote-splitting, the Liberals swept the region during the Chrétien era. The Unite the Right movement (accompanied by Chrétien's departure from office) led to the newly united Conservative Party seizing all but four of the region's seats in 2004. In 2006, Liberal support in this region melted; the only Liberal elected in this region was Belinda Stronach, a former Conservative who crossed the floor in 2005. Stronach's seat reverted to the Conservatives in 2008. In 2011, the Conservatives again swept the region, with the NDP's late-campaign surge propelling them to second in all but one riding.

The region was one of the few that resisted the massive Liberal surge in Ontario in 2015, though the Liberals managed to take Stronach's old riding of Newmarket—Aurora on the outer fringe of the Greater Toronto Area, a region that swung heavily to the Liberals in this election. They also managed to take all of Peterborough.

The riding of Peterborough—Kawartha (formerly simply Peterborough) had long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.

Votes by party throughout time Election /1979 125,84129.0% 71,22516.4% 234,66054.0% 2,3280.5%1980 143,77934.5% 80,13519.2% 189,78845.5% 2,5440.6%1984 105,15222.6% 74,72716.0% 1,1380.2% 280,39660.2% 3,6350.8%1988 157,10934.4% 81,97517.9% 8410.2% 205,29644.9% 10,9062.4%1993 215,87141.1% 19,0943.6% 1,2360.2% 118,51922.5% 153,00529.1% 17,7483.4%1997 210,87341.7% 30,2136.0% 8940.2% 110,37421.8% 148,42929.4% 4,6020.9%2000 219,93445.4% 22,7004.7% 3,4690.7% 88,52218.3% 146,63730.3% 3,1810.7%2004 227,49639.5% 234,45940.7% 73,85712.8% 31,2595.4% 6,7251.2%2006 213,66433.8% 279,35644.1% 94,47914.9% 40,7216.4% 3,6670.6%2008 140,06824.2% 297,96251.5% 68,13011.8% 66,37511.5% 4,0860.7%2011 105,99616.9% 347,26655.4% 121,59519.4% 38,8826.2% 11,6401.9%2015 275,28139.3% 307,01443.9% 87,26112.5% 26,7953.8% 2,7470.4%2019 249,93532.6% 323,40242.2% 107,62414.1% 66,7908.7% 14,1821.9% 2,4720.3%2021 229,28330.6% 343,96945.9% 110,00614.7% 15,4432.1% 48,4856.5% 2,5640.3%2025 293,12542.0% 366,39052.5% 20,1412.9% 8,1991.2% 6,9861.0% 2,8000.4%

2025

| style="background-color:whitesmoke" | Barrie South—Innisfil | |John Olthuis25,55738.0% || |John Brassard38,94357.8% | |Andrew Harrigan2,1303.2%

|Mark Sampson6951.0%

|John Brassard |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |Rose Zacharias29,15044.4% || |Doug Shipley33,94951.7% | |Gabriela Trujillo1,5592.4% | |Greg Taylor8931.4%

|Michael Speers (Comm.)1580.2% || |Doug Shipley |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |Anne Marie Watson26,83740.1% || |Alex Ruff35,48453.0% | |Christopher Neudorf2,0693.1% | |Natasha Akiwenzie1,4472.2% | |Pavel Smolko5200.8% | |Ann Gillies (UP)5540.8% || |Alex Ruff |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Dufferin—Caledon | |Malalai Halimi24,81835.2% || |Kyle Seeback42,45860.1% | |Viktor Karklins1,3802.0% | |Ifra Baig9271.3% | |Dympna Carolan7521.1% | |Jeffrey Halsall (Ind.)2600.4% || |Kyle Seeback |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |Nell Thomas29,22338.7% || |Jamie Schmale42,70156.6% | |Alyea Teel2,6253.5%

|Michael Penman9541.3%

|Jamie Schmale |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |Mike Hanrahan24,44437.0% || |Scot Davidson39,24759.4% | |Nancy Morrison1,2261.9% | |Callum McKinnon7121.1% | |Paul Montague4960.8%

|Chad Jewell (Ind.)222 0.3% |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke"|Simcoe—Grey | |Bren Munro29,45543.4% || |Terry Dowdall35,36452.1% | |Jasleen Bains1,5742.3% | |Allan Kuhn9911.5% | |Giorgio Mammoliti5230.8%

|Terry Dowdall |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Simcoe North | |Ryan Rocca29,76744.7% || |Adam Chambers32,24148.4% | |Melissa Lloyd2,5083.8% | |Ray Little1,2601.9% | |Stephen Toivo Makk6381.0% | |Russ Emo (CHP)1910.3% || |Adam Chambers

2021

| style="background-color:whitesmoke" | Barrie—Innisfil | |Lisa-Marie Wilson15,29228.89% || |John Brassard25,23447.67% | |Aleesha Gostkowski8,34915.77%

|Corrado Brancato4,0607.67%

|John Brassard |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |Tanya Saari16,14530.91% || |Doug Shipley23,55545.09% | |Sarah Lochhead8,91017.06%

|Chris Webb3,6296.95%

|Doug Shipley |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |Anne Marie Watson14,73825.23% || |Alex Ruff28,72749.18% | |Christopher Neudorf7,93913.59% | |Ashley Michelle Lawrence1,7893.06% | |Anna-Marie Fosbrooke4,6978.04% | |Reima Kaikkonen (Ind.)5240.90% || |Alex Ruff |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Dufferin—Caledon | |Lisa Post19,86730.30% || |Kyle Seeback31,49048.02% | |Samantha Sanchez6,86610.47% | |Jenni Michelle Le Forestier2,7544.20% | |Anthony Zambito4,3896.69% | |Stephen McKendrick (Ind.)2070.32% || |Kyle Seeback |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | |Judi Forbes15,64523.10% || |Jamie Schmale35,41852.30% | |Zac Miller9,73014.37% | |Angel Godsoe1,6962.50% | |Alison Davidson4,7697.04% | |Gene Balfour (Libert.)4630.68% || |Jamie Schmale |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Northumberland—Peterborough South | |Alison Lester23,33633.46% || |Philip Lawrence31,01544.47% | |Kim McArthur-Jackson9,80914.07% | |Christina Wilson1,7642.53% | |Nathan Lang3,8135.47%

|Philip Lawrence |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Peterborough—Kawartha | |Maryam Monsef24,66435.13% || |Michelle Ferreri27,40239.03% | |Joy Lachica13,30218.95% | |Chanté White1,5532.21% | |Paul Lawton3,0734.38% | |Robert M. Bowers (Ind.)2180.31% || |Maryam Monsef |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Simcoe—Grey | |Bren Munro21,32027.83% || |Terry Dowdall36,24947.32% | |Lucas Gillies10,14013.24% | |Nicholas Clayton2,9693.88% | |Adam Minatel5,5507.24% | |Ken Stouffer (CHP)3820.50% || |Terry Dowdall |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Simcoe North | |Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux19,33230.39% || |Adam Chambers27,38343.05% | |Janet-Lynne Durnford9,95815.66% | |Krystal Brooks1,9032.99% | |Stephen Makk4,8227.58% | |Russ Emo (CHP)2100.33% || |Bruce Stanton† |- | style="background-color:whitesmoke" |York—Simcoe | |Daniella Johnson14,46929.04% || |Scot Davidson24,90049.97% | |Benjamin Jenkins6,80013.65%

|Michael Lotter3,6627.35%

|Scot Davidson

2019

2015

2011

2008

2006

2004

Barrie Durham Dufferin-Caledon Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Newmarket-Aurora Northumberland-Qunte West Peterborough Simcoe-Grey Simcoe North York-Simcoe

2000

1997

1993

Party rankings Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 8 1 0 0 1 7 1 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 9

1988

Party rankings The Liberals flipped Northumberland with a razor-thin 28 votes majority over the Progressive Conservatives, who won the other 8 seats. Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 8 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 9

1984

Party rankings The Progressive Conservatives swept the region, winning everywhere with significant majorities. The Liberals arrived second in every riding in the region, with the NDP third. Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10

Notes

References

Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

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