Opinion polling for the 2024 Salvadoran elections

The following tables list the results of opinion polls for the presidential, legislative, and municipal elections conducted since October 2022 in reverse chronological order for the 2024 Salvadoran presidential and legislative elections. The party with the highest percentage is listed in bold and shaded in its party color, and the party with the second highest percentage is in bold and shaded in gray. The lead column shows the percentage between the parties with the first and second highest percentages. For legislative and municipal election polls, projected seat counts, if available, are listed below the percentage.

Presidential election

Graphical summary

After 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Other None Unsure Lead Bukele Sánchez Flores Parada Renderos Murillo Cardoza 2024 election 4 Feb 2024 N/A 84.65 5.57 6.40 2.04 0.74 0.60 – – – – 78.25 Cid-Gallup (exit poll) 4 Feb 2024 – 87.0 4.0 7.0 1.6 0.6 0.5 – – – – 80.0 End of the presidential campaigning period on 31 January 2024 Cid-Gallup Jan 2024 2,400 79.0 4.0 4.0 – – – – 1.0 – 12.0 74.0 Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 2,892 81.9 3.4 4.2 2.5 1.1 1.0 – – 3.0 3.0 77.7 Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 1,264 68.7 1.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 – – 7.8 19.3 66.4 CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 70.9 2.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 – – 6.1 15.0 68.0 Fundaungo 11 Nov–14 Dec 2023 1,201 56.0 2.1 3.3 0.9 – – – 1.7 0.6 22.3 52.7 Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 61.7 1.5 2.6 0.3 – 0.2 0.1 1.7 9.4 14.0 59.1 Cid-Gallup 6–13 Nov 2023 1,200 79.0 3.0 2.0 – – – – 2.0 – 14.0 76.0 Beginning of the presidential campaigning period on 3 October 2023 OPINES 18 Sept 2023 1,320 92.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 – – – – 2.0 2.7 90.0 CEC-UFG 15–21 Aug 2023 1,920 68.4 4.3 2.8 2.0 1.5 – – – 9.2 11.8 64.1

Before 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V Other None Unsure Lead Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 53.7 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 – 38.8 51.2 CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 70.3 3.3 1.2 1.8 – – – – – – 23.4 67.0 LPG Datos 15–24 Feb 2023 1,520 54.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 – – – 0.8 – – 42.5 52.5 LPG Datos 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 49.3 2.6 – 1.4 – – – 1.1 8.6 9.8 27.2 46.7 CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 66.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 – 0.2 0.5 – 9.8 18.2 48.0 2019 election 7 Feb 2019 N/A – 31.72 14.41 53.10 – – – 0.77 – – – 21.38

Legislative election

Legislative election polls Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD DS FPS PAIS FS Other None Unsure Lead 2024 election 4 Feb 2024 N/A 70.56 7.29 6.28 3.19 3.26 3.15 1.32 2.94 0.39 – – – 1.64 – – – Cid-Gallup Jan 2024 2,400 60.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 – – – – – – – – – 2.0 – 27.0 55.0 Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 534 67.6 4.7 3.6 2.6 – 0.4 0.9 0.4 – – – – – – – 19.9 62.9 Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 428 58.6 2.1 3.0 5.6 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 – – – 0.5 – – 26.2 53.0 CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Beginning of the legislative campaigning period on 3 December 2023 Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 866 81.2 3.6 5.5 3.9 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 – – 0.1 75.7 CEC-UFG 15–21 Aug 2023 1,920 59.0 5.8 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 – 12.0 11.1 53.2 Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 45.0 2.7 2.9 3.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 – – – – – 1.6 9.1 25.9 42.1 CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 63.0 5.0 1.3 2.8 – – – 1.4 – – – – – 1.6 4.7 20.2 58.0 LPG Datos 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 49.7 2.5 1.4 – – – – – – – – – – 2.7 – 43.7 47.2 LPG Datos 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 44.3 3.1 1.1 2.6 – – – – – – – – – 1.7 9.7 33.9 41.2 CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 62.8 2.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 – – – – – – 10.2 18.6 59.9 2021 election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 66.46 12.18 6.91 5.29 4.08 1.70 1.70 1.01 0.56 – – – – – – – 54.28

Municipal election

Municipal election polls Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD DS FPS PAIS FS Other None Unsure Lead 2024 election 3 Mar 2024 N/A 39.12 9.78 7.78 13.41 9.20 11.16 0.94 0.56 3.24 – 0.46 – 4.36 – – – Beginning of the municipal campaigning period on 5 February 2024 CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 54.7 5.8 2.8 3.3 – 3.0 – – – – – – – 12.1 18.3 – 48.9 Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 40.3 4.8 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 – 11.5 31.2 35.5 Fundaungo 1–5 Sept 2023 502 35.9 2.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 – 0.1 0.1 – – – – – 2.4 17.1 37.7 33.7 Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 40.4 3.5 3.7 4.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 – – – – – 0.3 – 45.5 35.5 CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 56.7 4.9 2.2 3.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 – – 0.1 0.3 6.5 23.5 51.8 LPG Datos 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 41.9 4.3 2.3 1.9 – – – – – – – – – 2.0 – 47.6 37.6 LPG Datos 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 35.3 4.6 2.2 3.6 – – – – – – – – – 2.7 8.2 41.0 30.7 CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 50.0 3.4 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.8 – – – – – – 10.5 29.1 46.6 2021 election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 50.78 19.01 11.16 10.86 4.93 1.73 0.45 0.39 0.69 – – – – – – – 31.77

Polling on Bukele's re-election

According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid. Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election.Multiple sources:

The following table lists the results of opinion polls regarding Bukele's re-election, with the option with the highest percentage listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the lead column shows the difference between the "would support" and the "would not support" options. The following graph visualizes local regression of the table's results.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Would support Would not support Undecided Lead Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 69.9 24.3 5.8 TResearch Jun 2023 1,000 90.9 8.8 0.3 CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 75.6 12.5 11.9 CIESCA May 2023 – 91.85 5.36 2.79 TResearch May 2023 1,000 90.4 9.3 0.3 TResearch Apr 2023 1,000 91.2 7.5 1.3 TResearch Mar 2023 1,000 92.6 6.2 1.2 LPG Datos 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 68.0 13.0 19.0 TResearch 14–16 Feb 2023 1,000 93.9 5.7 0.4 CEC-UFG 4–8 Feb 2023 1,263 62.2 19.0 18.8 TResearch Jan 2023 1,000 92.7 5.9 1.4 TResearch Dec 2022 1,000 93.7 4.8 1.5 LPG Datos 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 64.6 17.9 17.5 TResearch Nov 2022 1,000 94.1 4.5 1.4 CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 74.7 12.8 12.5 CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 77.2 11.0 11.8 TResearch Oct 2022 1,000 94.8 3.9 1.3 TResearch 17–19 Sep 2022 1,000 94.3 4.4 1.4 CIESCA 18 Sep 2022 25,623 88.3 11.7 – CEC-UFG 10–14 Sep 2022 1,231 58.9 23.1 15.0 CEC-UFG 26 May 2022 – 72.2 – –

Intentions to vote

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Will vote Will not vote Undecided Lead Fundaungo 1–5 Sept 2023 502 82.8 16.7 0.5 Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 83.2 15.1 1.7 LPG Datos Feb 2023 – 83.6 9.5 6.9 LPG Datos Nov 2022 – 78.8 10.3 11.0

Opinion polling for the 2024 Salvadoran elections

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