Snap legislative elections were held in Kazakhstan on 19 March 2023 to elect the members of the Mäjilis. This was the ninth legislative election since Kazakhstan's independence in 1991 and the first snap election for the Mäjilis seats since 2016. It was held alongside the local assembly elections.
At the September 2022 State of the Nation Address, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced snap legislative elections to take place in the first half of 2023 in the aftermath of deadly unrest in January 2022. During that time, a series of laws and amendments were approved following the 2022 constitutional referendum, which aimed to reform Kazakhstan's political system by granting more parliamentary powers to the lower chamber Mäjilis as well as for its mandate seats to be allocated via mixed electoral system for the first time since 2004. Following Tokayev's reelection win in the 2022 presidential election, he signed a presidential decree on 19 January 2023 in dissolving the 7th Mäjilis and setting the date for the snap legislative election to take place in March 2023.
A total of seven parties contested the election, including the newly registered parties of Respublica and Baytaq, as well as an overwhelming number of independent candidates participating in electoral districts. Campaigning centered on political and socioeconomic issues such as regional development, national security, agricultural land nationalisation, education, workers' salaries, environmental problems and protection for the Aral Sea and Syr Darya.
Several independent opposition candidates under the pressure of the Kazakh government were excluded from the ballots due to alleged claims of election law violations during the campaigning period.
Background
The 7th Parliament of Kazakhstan was formed in the aftermath of the 2021 legislative elections, in which the composition of the lower house Mäjilis was left unchanged as only three pro-government parties, Nur Otan (now Amanat), Aq Jol, and the People's Party of Kazakhstan, retained their factions in the parliament. The ruling Nur Otan party, though unusually losing more seats, continued to keep their 76-seat supermajority control of the Mäjilis. The legislative elections were the first to take place following the resignation of President Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2019. At that time, Nazarbayev continued serving as the chairman of Nur Otan and had held a variety of notable political positions and powers in his post-presidency, most importantly the influential Security Council chairmanship. Following the 2021 elections, Mäjilis chairman Nurlan Nigmatulin (Nur Otan) and Prime Minister Asqar Mamin were reappointed to their respective posts, along with Dariga Nazarbayeva returning as a deputy were moves described as a continued political influence held by Nazarbayev over the new parliament due to his control over the ruling party and an open endorsement of those key government names.
Throughout the legislative term of the 7th Parliament, a series of major constitutional and political reforms in par with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's policies took place in Kazakhstan with hundreds of proposed bills being passed by the parliament.
2022 unrest and constitutional referendum
In January 2022 massive protests and unrest occurred in Kazakhstan after a sudden hike in liquefied petroleoum gas (LPG) prices in the city of Zhanaozen. The protests originally started as small rallies from Zhanaozen with demands in reduction of the LPG prices, but quickly spread grew to nationwide protests in calls for political and socioeconomic reforms. President Tokayev, in a failed attempt to appease the growing protests, pledged to take measures by setting a price cap on LPG and other forms of fuel and basic food products, as well as instituting a moratorium on utility costs and rent subsidies for low-income people. This led him to dismiss Asqar Mamin's government and enact a state of emergency, along with a deadly force order which was provided by the backing of foreign peacekeeping forces from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, after chaotic unrest broke out in the largest city of Almaty and the rest of Kazakhstan's territory.
As the aftermath of the January 2022 unrest was left with inflicted civilian casualties and costly property damages across the country, President Tokayev – following his takeover of the Security Council chairmanship from Nazarbayev – announced a new wave of political and constitutional reforms in a March 2022 State of the Nation Address. These reforms would lessen his executive powers and allocate more authority to the parliament. To do so, he initiated a referendum that would allow for Kazakh citizens to directly vote for the proposed 56 amendments. In a 2022 constitutional referendum, an overwhelming majority of Kazakhs had officially voted in favour for changes to the Constitution of Kazakhstan, which changed nearly a total of one-third or 33 articles in the document. The newly proposed amendments included changes within the structure of governance, electoral system, decentralisation of power between the levels of governments, and paved the way for complete stripping of Nazarbayev's remaining constitutional powers of being a Elbasy (leader of the nation).
2022 presidential election
Amid speculations of power consolidation, President Tokayev announced 2022 snap presidential elections for November in his September 2022 State of the Nation Address, citing his personal need for a "new mandate of trust from the people" and said that the early election would "significantly lower the risks of power monopolisation". The move was described by Reuters as an attempt by Tokayev to strengthen his "mandate as an independent leader" and potentially avoid economic deterioration and loss of public support if holding elections ahead of originally scheduled date for 2024. Sceptics suggested the possibility of Tokayev using the 2022 presidential elections as a way to extend his rule similarly to his predecessor Nazarbayev, citing Tokayev's current control over all major branches of Kazakh government and his proposal for a new constitutional amendment that would change the presidential term of office to a nonrenewable seven-year term. In an effort to boost his support after the announcement of elections, Tokayev declared amnesty for the participants in the January 2022 unrest and supported reverting the controversial capital name of Nur-Sultan back to Astana.
Due to early timing of the 2022 presidential election, the political sphere was left without the organisation of the opposition, as no new political party had been registered due to the Kazakh legislation restricting citizens in contesting the race. With exception of Tokayev seeking reelection, other presidential contestants were described as "pocket candidates" due to their little public popularity who did not pose any significant electoral challenge to Tokayev. The results left Tokayev securing an 81.3% landslide victory in the election, with Tokayev in his inaugural speech promising to fulfill his election programme within the remaining seven years of his presidential term.
2023 Senate elections
After assuming office, Tokayev announced January 2023 Senate elections, stressing the need in "continuation of the practical implementation of the constitutional reform", adding that the results will allow for Senate deputy corps to be renewed in "principles of competition and openness". This decision came after constitutional changes in the structure and powers of the Senate and the coming term expiration for senators that were previously elected in 2017, to which the senate election would be conducted as part of Tokayev's political reforms.
In total, 20 senators were elected by local assemblies (mäslihats) with 130 people initially nominating their candidacies, including several barred activists who claimed of constitutional rights violations that prevented them from becoming candidates.
Snap election speculations Speculations of snap elections for parliament began during the January 2022 unrest, with unconfirmed media reports of Tokayev potentially discussing the issue of dissolving the 7th Parliament. A variety of predictions were made, many of which predicted snap legislative elections sometime in late 2022 or early 2023.
After Tokayev initially announced his package of political reforms in the upcoming September 2022 State of the Nation Address, several political commentators expressed support for holding snap legislative elections, with political analyst Zamir Qarajanov citing a need in change of laws regarding elections and deputies and that the if a snap election is called by Tokayev, then it would likely be held sometime around January and February 2023. According to Gaziz Äbişev, the drafting of new political reforms would concern parties and elections and that it would lead to the issue of the early dissolution of the parliament being raised. Proponents of an early vote for Mäjilis concluded that Tokayev must first present his package of political reforms that would allow for newer parties to form and conduct the legislative timeframe for their implementation before scheduling a snap election date. Political scientist Älibek Tajibaev argued against snap election, saying that the parliamentary formation is strongly tied with the general election style, noting that voting dates are "predetermined chronologically" and that non-parliamentary and newly formed parties should prepare for the regularly scheduled 2025 legislative election by instead focusing their campaigning first in municipal races.
Despite widescale discussions of a potential snap election, Mäjilis chairman Erlan Qoşanov in April 2022 dismissed any rumours of an early dissolution of the 7th Parliament, claiming that issues of holding an early vote had not been discussed at all.
However, on 1 September 2022 at the State of the Nation Address, Tokayev officially announced snap legislative elections in the first half of 2023. He cited the need for the legislative bodies to be "naturally renewed" and said that a new parliamentary composition will represent the interests of "broad groups of citizens" to allow executive branch to enact more "balanced decisions", adding that the snap legislative election would conclude "a reset and renewal of all major political institutions". At the 23 November 2022 plenary session of the Mäjilis, chairman Qoşanov in regard to the timing for an upcoming snap election, stated that the announcement of it would be made by Tokayev and forecast the date to be held sometime in 2023. Shortly after Tokayev's reelection win in the 2022 presidential election, he signed a decree on 26 November in approving an action plan made under the basis of his electoral programme, which initially included a deadline in holding of a Mäjilis election no later than June 2023.
Dissolution of the 7th Parliament In early January 2023, the insider source of KazTAG reported on the dissolution of Mäjilis taking place within a coming week, to which the possibility of it was confirmed on 11 January by the head of the Mäjilis Committee on Legislation and Judicial and Legal Reform Arman Qojahmetov, who suggested for the dissolution to be declared by Tokayev sometime in the month of January, though not ruling out the power of Mäjilis members to request the parliament to be dissolved themselves.