The 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 22 March 2026 to elect the 19th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. The Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) won with 31.0% of votes, while the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which led the state government since 1991, suffered significant losses and fell to second place with 25.9% of votes.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) climbed to third place by doubling its vote share to 19.5%, the highest in western German states. The Alliance 90/The Greens came in fourth with 7.9%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Free Voters (FW) both lost votes, failed to reach the five per cent hurdle and lost their parliamentary representation, which The Left (Die Linke) did not win either despite improvements. Turnout was 68.5%.

Election date The Rhineland-Palatinate state government set the date for the 19th state election on 22 March 2026. Interior Minister Michael Ebling stated that the date (a Sunday) met constitutional requirements, avoided the Easter holidays, and allowed for timely formation of the new state parliament. The election must occur between 57 and 60 months after the legislative period began on 18 May 2021. Unlike previous elections since 1996, the 2026 election did not coincide with Baden-Württemberg's due to differing legal and holiday schedules. Baden-Württemberg voted on 8 March 2026, while Rhineland-Palatinate's election date accommodated the mandatory 67-day period for approving election proposals, avoiding overlap with the year-end holiday season.

Electoral system In Rhineland-Palatinate, each voter has two votes. The first vote, known as the constituency vote, is used to elect a direct candidate. The second vote, called the state vote, is cast for a party or voter association and is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament. The number of constituencies was increased from 51 to 52 in 2019. Parties and voter associations can choose to submit either a statewide list eligible for election across Rhineland-Palatinate or district lists in the four electoral districts; however, it is not mandatory to submit a district list for each district, and in such cases the state vote is not applicable statewide. For the 2021 state election, no district lists were approved.

Election proposals had to be submitted by 6 January 2026. For seat allocation, only parties and voter associations that receive at least 5% of the state votes are considered. Unlike federal elections, there is no basic mandate clause. The state parliament generally has 101 seats, with 52 allocated as direct mandates. Direct mandates won by parties or voter associations that fail to meet the 5% threshold are subtracted from the total before further seat allocation. If a party wins more direct mandates than its proportional share based on the state vote, other parties receive compensatory mandates, potentially increasing the total number of seats. The seat distribution for state and district lists uses the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers divisor method with standard rounding.

Background In the 2021 state elections, the SPD, led by Minister-President Malu Dreyer, achieved the largest share of the vote with 35.7 percent. The CDU came second with 27.7 percent, the Greens regained third place with 9.3 percent, and the AfD dropped from 3rd to 4th largest party in the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament, getting 8.3 percent of the vote. The FDP came fifth with 5.5 percent. A sixth party, the Free Voters, made it into the state parliament for the first time with 5.4 percent. Prior to the election, all three parties in the traffic light coalition expressed they would like to continue their coalition in the new term. The balance of power within the alliance changed, since the Greens were now the second strongest party instead of the FDP. The SPD invited the Greens and FDP to exploratory talks the day after the election. Almost eight weeks after the election, the SPD, Greens, and FDP agreed to continue their previous coalition, forming the Third Dreyer cabinet.

In the constituent session of the state parliament on 18 May 2021, Malu Dreyer was re-elected Prime Minister and the Third Dreyer cabinet was sworn in. Due to health reasons, Dreyer resigned in summer 2024. On 10 July 2024, Alexander Schweitzer took over the position and formed the SPD-led Schweitzer cabinet with two ministers each from FDP and Greens.

On the federal level, in late 2024, the Scholz cabinet collapsed as the FDP withdrew from the traffic light coalition, triggering the snap February 2025 German federal election in which FDP lost its representation in the Bundestag, and the SPD dropped to third place, behind CDU and AfD. Both of the SPD and CDU refused to work with AfD in continuation of their Firewall policy. The only other option was a CDU-SPD coalition, which the parties agreed to, forming the Merz cabinet.

Political parties The table below lists the parties represented in the 18th Landtag. NameIdeologyLeading candidate2021 resultVotes (%)Seats 1SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Alexander Schweitzer35.7% 2CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Gordon Schnieder27.7% 3Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Katrin Eder9.3% 4AfD Alternative for Germany Right-wing populism Jan Bollinger8.3% 5FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Daniela Schmitt5.5% 6FW Free Voters Regionalism Joachim Streit5.4%

Opinion polls Graphical summary

Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date SamplesizeSPDCDUGrüneAfDFDPFWLinkeBSW Others Lead2026 state election22 March 2026–25.9 31.07.919.52.14.24.41.93.3 5.1 INSA 1,000 27 28 9 20 – 5 5 – 6 1Forschungsgruppe Wahlen10–12 Mar 20261,1212628919–55–82Infratest dimap9–11 Mar 20261,5342829819–4.55–6.51Infratest dimap19–24 Feb 20261,1582728919–55–71Infratest dimap14–20 Jan 20261,15126291018–46–73Infratest dimap1–7 Oct 20251,15823291019–46–96INSA 16–23 Sep 2025 1,0002227923436424 Wahlkreisprognose 1,400 24.5 28 10.5 18 2 4 5.5 3 4.5 3.5Infratest dimap27 May–3 Jun 20251,14023301117345–77INSA 25 Mar–1 Apr 2025 1,0002128919239549Federal Parliament election 23 February 2025–18.630.610.420.14.62.16.54.22.910.5Infratest dimap5–10 Dec 20241,1752432111444–478Infratest dimap4–9 Jul 20241,1652131101257–59 10European Parliament election 9 June 2024–17.530.79.314.75.95.21.74.715.513.2Infratest dimap15–20 Feb 20241,1572231101547–47 9Wahlkreisprognose2–11 Dec 20231,23726 278.5203.57.51.5–6 1Infratest dimap 25–30 Oct 2023 1,048 22 31 12 17 5 5 –– 8 9Infratest dimap 13–18 Jul 2023 1,156 25 31 11 16 5 6 –– 6 6INSA 8–15 May 2023 1,000 28 27 11 14 6 5 2– 7 1Infratest dimap 27–28 Mar 2023 1,180 2829141254––71Wahlkreisprognose 14–21 Mar 2023 1,0002925111656.52–5.5 4Infratest dimap 9–13 Dec 2022 1,166 2829151154––71INSA 7–14 Nov 2022 1,00028281313552–6 TieWahlkreisprognose 14–17 Oct 2022 1,0232625.5101576.52–8 0.5Infratest dimap 26–27 Sep 2022 1,1832727141284––8 TieWahlkreisprognose 2–10 Jul 2022 1,20934.526.5146.556.52–5 8Wahlkreisprognose 11–18 May 2022 1,0423723.5135862–5.5 13.5Wahlkreisprognose 21–28 Mar 2022 1,002392476872–7 15Infratest dimap4–8 Mar 20221,158342611795––88Infratest dimap19–23 Nov 20211,1723421128116––813Wahlkreisprognose 1–9 Nov 2021 1,10041209.587.581.5–4.5 21 2021 federal election 26 September 2021 –29.4 24.7 12.6 9.2 11.7 3.6 3.3– 5.6 4.7Infratest dimap2–7 Sep 20211,160402398653–617Infratest dimap9–13 Jul 20211,153382498663–632021 state election14 March 2021–35.727.79.38.35.55.42.5–5.78.0

Results

Electorate Demographic SPD CDU Grüne AfD FDP FW Linke Other Total vote 26%31% 8% 19% 2% 4% 4% 6% Sex Men 25%31% 7% 23% 2% 4% 4% 4% Women 27%30% 9% 16% 2% 4% 5% 7% Age 18–24 years old 19% 15% 10%21% 4% 5% 16% 10% 25–34 years old 19% 16% 12%20% 3% 6% 13% 11% 35–44 years old 20% 24% 10%26% 2% 5% 5% 8% 45–59 years old 23%31% 8% 23% 2% 5% 2% 6% 60–69 years old 31%33% 7% 19% 2% 4% 2% 2% 70 or older 34%45% 4% 11% 2% 2% 1% 1% Employment status Self-employed 14%40% 11% 18% 4% 4% 2% 7% Employees 22%26% 10% 21% 2% 6% 6% 7% Workers 21% 16% 3%39% 1% 7% 7% 6% Pensioners 35%39% 5% 14% 2% 2% 1% 1% Education Simple education 30%31% 2% 26% 1% 4% 1% 5% Medium education 23%31% 4% 26% 2% 5% 3% 6% High education 26%31% 13% 12% 2% 4% 7% 5% Financial situation Good 27%34% 8% 16% 2% 4% 4% 5% Bad 18% 17% 6%40% 1% 5% 6% 7%

Possible coalitions According to polling, the FDP was expected to lose its representation in the state parliament; this was confirmed by exit polls. A left-wing coalition (red-red-green) was also predicted to be impossible as the three left-wing parties (SPD, Greens, and The Left) that were in contention to win seats were not predicted to reach a majority between them. The AfD was predicted to finish in third place, with the best ever result in western states; however, it would remain in opposition as no other party is willing to cooperate with them according to the "firewall policy".

The mostly likely outcome was a grand coalition between the CDU and the SPD, as in the federal Bundestag, with the CDU taking over the lead according to exit polls. As seen in the Baden-Württemberg state election held two weeks earlier, the close proximity of the two leading parties in the polls, with uncertainty about which party the next minister-president would be selected from, produced tactical voting negatively affecting small parties, denying representation to FW and The Left according to exit polls. The Greens also saw a slight loss in vote share but kept representation.

See also 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election

References