The third wave of autocratization is the ongoing 21st-century phenomenon whereby countries around the globe are drifting away from liberal democracy towards authoritarianism. The war on terror, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic were some of the most significant events that exacerbated autocratization. Since the 2010s, more countries have been autocratizing than democratizing.
Unlike previous waves of autocratization, the third wave has resulted in significant autocratization in healthy liberal democracies. Modern autocrats have relied less on military coups to consolidate power and more on being legitimately elected to positions of power and eroding separation of powers from within.
Waves of autocracy contrast with waves of democracy, with the third wave of autocratization being preceded by the third wave of democratization, which began in 1974. Although experts disagree on which year marked the beginning of the third wave of autocratization (and the corresponding end to the third wave of democratization), most agree it began during the war on terror or Great Recession.
Autocratization has ignited international pro-democracy movements such as the Arab Spring and the Gen Z protests. Autocratization has also led to developments in protest tactics against police riot control methods, as well as the popularization of new pro-democracy symbols like the three-finger salute and Straw Hats' Jolly Roger.
Timeline
Modern democratic backsliding, rather than occurring through military coups (the norm during the Cold War era), has more frequently occurred through the election of personalist leaders or parties who subsequently dismantle democratic institutions. New democracies that were weakly established during the third wave of democratization have been especially vulnerable to democratic backsliding.
War on terror (2001–2021)
Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent war on terror, democratic backsliding ensued.Little AT, Meng A. Measuring Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024;57(2):149–161. doi:10.1017/S104909652300063X The war on terror is a global military campaign initiated by the United States in response to the September 11 attacks in 2001. A global conflict spanning multiple wars, some researchers and political scientists have argued that it replaced the Cold War.
In 2003, political scientists and theorists believed that the third wave had crested and would soon begin to ebb, just as its predecessors did in the first and second waves.
While support for the "war on terror" was high among the American public during its initial years, it had become deeply unpopular by the late 2000s. Controversy over the war has focused on its morality, casualties, and continuity, with critics questioning government measures that infringed civil liberties and human rights. Critics have notably described the Patriot Act as "Orwellian" due to its substantial expansion of the federal government's surveillance powers. Controversial practices of coalition forces have been condemned, including drone warfare, surveillance, torture, extraordinary rendition, and various war crimes. The participating governments have been criticized for implementing authoritarian measures, repressing minorities, fomenting Islamophobia globally, and causing negative impacts to health and environment. Security analysts assert that there is no military solution to the conflict, pointing out that terrorism is not an identifiable enemy, and have emphasized the importance of negotiations and political solutions to resolve the underlying roots of the crises.
Great Recession (2010s)
Some scholars argue the third wave of autocratization began in the 2010s after the Great Recession, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high. From 2010 to 2020, the V-Dem Institute reported a global decline in liberal democracy.
COVID-19 (2019–2022)
Post-COVID (2022–present)
In the 2020s, democratic backsliding has increasingly been observed not only in newer or weakly institutionalized democracies, but also in long-established democratic systems.
According to the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2026, nearly a quarter of the world's countries were undergoing autocratization in 2025, including several in Europe and North America. The report also highlights growing concerns about declines in democratic quality and increasing pressures on media and journalists worldwide.
Russia under Vladimir Putin has repeatedly engaged in election interference and disinformation campaigns aimed at damaging opponents of far-right populist factions, including in three US elections to support Donald Trump (2016, 2020, 2024) and in German elections to support the AfD, or Alternative for Germany (2025).
See also V-Dem Democracy Indices Waves of democracy Anti-fascism Surveillance capitalism Neo-nationalism White identity politics Censorship Fascism Neo-fascism Broligarchy Far-right Totalitarianism Guy Fawkes mask Unmanned aerial vehicles in law enforcement Long-range acoustic device Democratic backsliding Democratic backsliding in Europe by country Inverted totalitarianism Origins of global surveillance Political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Police response to Gaza war protests at universities
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