Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election

The Australian Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, winning 77 of 151 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition holds 58 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining 16.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."Division Classifications , Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016. Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.

Pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats - 77MarginalGilmoreNSWFiona PhillipsALP0.17LyonsTasBrian MitchellALP0.92LingiariNTMarion ScrymgourALP0.95BennelongNSWJerome LaxaleALP0.97HigginsVicMichelle Ananda-RajahALP2.06RobertsonNSWGordon ReidALP2.27TangneyWASam LimALP2.37McEwenVicRob MitchellALP3.24PatersonNSWMeryl SwansonALP3.27BoothbySALouise Miller-FrostALP3.28HunterNSWDaniel RepacholiALP4.08ParramattaNSWAndrew CharltonALP4.30BlairQldShayne NeumannALP5.23ReidNSWSally SitouALP5.24ShortlandNSWPat ConroyALP5.25DobellNSWEmma McBrideALP5.61WerriwaNSWAnne StanleyALP5.89HasluckWATania LawrenceALP5.95Fairly safeDunkleyVicPeta MurphyALP6.27ChisholmVicCarina GarlandALP6.34BruceVicJulian HillALP6.58IsaacsVicMark DreyfusALP6.90HoltVicCassandra FernandoALP7.12HawkeVicSam RaeALP7.63CorangamiteVicLibby CokerALP7.64RichmondNSWJustine ElliotALP7.76MacquarieNSWSusan TemplemanALP7.73Eden-MonaroNSWKristy McBainALP8.09WillsVicPeter KhalilALP vs. GRN8.53CooperVicGed KearneyALP vs. GRN8.68MacarthurNSWMike FreelanderALP8.69HindmarshSAMark ButlerALP8.95PearceWATracey RobertsALP8.98SwanWAZaneta MascarenhasALP8.99RankinQldJim ChalmersALP9.09MoretonQldGraham PerrettALP9.09SolomonNTLuke GoslingALP9.37McMahonNSWChris BowenALP9.49GortonVicBrendan O'ConnorALP9.97SafeWhitlamNSWStephen JonesALP10.07LilleyQldAnika WellsALP10.54CowanWAAnne AlyALP10.79MakinSATony ZappiaALP10.80GellibrandVicTim WattsALP11.41GreenwayNSWMichelle RowlandALP11.54OxleyQldMilton DickALP11.59AdelaideSASteve GeorganasALP11.91BendigoVicLisa ChestersALP12.11CanberraACTAlicia PayneALP vs. GRN12.20MacnamaraVicJosh BurnsALP12.25JagajagaVicKate ThwaitesALP12.34MaribyrnongVicBill ShortenALP12.38CalwellVicMaria VamvakinouALP12.39LalorVicJoanne RyanALP12.82SpenceSAMatt BurnellALP12.90BeanACTDavid SmithALP12.95BallaratVicCatherine KingALP12.97CorioVicRichard MarlesALP13.01ChifleyNSWEd HusicALP13.36FranklinTasJulie CollinsALP13.70HothamVicClare O'NeilALP14.25Kingsford SmithNSWMatt ThistlethwaiteALP14.51CunninghamNSWAlison ByrnesALP14.70PerthWAPatrick GormanALP14.80BlaxlandNSWJason ClareALP14.94BurtWAMatt KeoghALP15.21WatsonNSWTony BurkeALP15.21BartonNSWLinda BurneyALP15.54ScullinVicAndrew GilesALP15.58FennerACTAndrew LeighALP15.69KingstonSAAmanda RishworthALP16.35SydneyNSWTanya PlibersekALP vs. GRN16.56BrandWAMadeleine KingALP16.71FraserVicDaniel MulinoALP16.73FremantleWAJosh WilsonALP16.89GrayndlerNSWAnthony AlbaneseALP vs. GRN17.06NewcastleNSWSharon ClaydonALP17.98

Opposition seats - 58 MarginalDeakinVicMichael SukkarLIB0.19SturtSAJames StevensLIB0.45MooreWAIan GoodenoughLIB0.66MenziesVicKeith WolahanLIB0.68BassTasBridget ArcherLIB1.43CaseyVicAaron VioliLIB1.48DicksonQldPeter DuttonLNP1.70CowperNSWPat ConaghanNAT vs. IND2.32AstonVicAlan TudgeLIB2.81MonashVicRussell BroadbentLIB2.90LongmanQldTerry YoungLNP3.08BanksNSWDavid ColemanLIB3.20BonnerQldRoss VastaLNP3.41LeichhardtQldWarren EntschLNP3.44CanningWAAndrew HastieLIB3.59NichollsVicSam BirrellNAT vs. IND3.81FlynnQldColin BoyceLNP3.82WannonVicDan TehanLIB vs. IND3.92BradfieldNSWPaul FletcherLIB vs. IND4.21FordeQldBert Van ManenLNP4.23DurackWAMelissa PriceLIB4.27ForrestWANola MarinoLIB4.29PetrieQldLuke HowarthLNP4.44BowmanQldHenry PikeLNP5.51Fairly safeLindsayNSWMelissa McIntoshLIB6.34CapricorniaQldMichelle LandryLNP6.59FlindersVicZoe McKenzieLIB6.70GroomQldGarth HamiltonLNP vs. IND6.89O'ConnorWARick WilsonLIB6.97HughesNSWJenny WareLIB7.01HumeNSWAngus TaylorLIB7.72BraddonTasGavin PearceLIB8.03FisherQldAndrew WallaceLNP8.67La TrobeVicJason WoodLIB8.69FairfaxQldTed O'BrienLNP8.97McPhersonQldKaren AndrewsLNP9.34CalareNSWAndrew GeeNAT vs. IND9.68BerowraNSWJulian LeeserLIB9.77SafeGreySARowan RamseyLIB10.07HinklerQldKeith PittLNP10.07DawsonQldAndrew WillcoxLNP10.42FaddenQldStuart RobertLNP10.63MitchellNSWAlex HawkeLIB10.69PageNSWKevin HoganNAT10.74WrightQldScott BuchholzLNP10.89MoncrieffQldAngie BellLNP11.19Wide BayQldLlew O'BrienLNP11.34HerbertQldPhillip ThompsonLNP11.77CookNSWScott MorrisonLIB12.44LyneNSWDavid GillespieNAT13.80RiverinaNSWMichael McCormackNAT14.85FarrerNSWSussan LeyLIB16.35New EnglandNSWBarnaby JoyceNAT16.43BarkerSATony PasinLIB16.62ParkesNSWMark CoultonNAT17.84MalleeVicAnne WebsterNAT18.99GippslandVicDarren ChesterNAT20.57MaranoaQldDavid LittleproudLNP22.12

Crossbench seats - 16Greens seats - 4MarginalRyanQldElizabeth Watson-BrownGRN vs. LNP2.65BrisbaneQldStephen BatesGRN vs. LNP3.73SafeMelbourneVicAdam BandtGRN vs. ALP10.15GriffithQldMax Chandler-MatherGRN vs. LNP10.46Other Crossbench - 12MarginalCurtinWAKate ChaneyIND vs. LIB1.26FowlerNSWDai LeIND vs. ALP1.63MackellarNSWSophie ScampsIND vs. LIB2.50GoldsteinVicZoe DanielIND vs. LIB2.87North SydneyNSWKylea TinkIND vs. LIB2.91KooyongVicMonique RyanIND vs. LIB2.94WentworthNSWAllegra SpenderIND vs. LIB4.19Fairly safeIndiVicHelen HainesIND vs. LIB9.08SafeWarringahNSWZali SteggallIND vs. LIB10.92MayoSARebekha SharkieCA vs. LIB12.27KennedyQldBob KatterKAP vs. LNP13.10ClarkTasAndrew WilkieIND vs. ALP20.82

Analysis ABC psephologist Antony Green observed that due to the considerably expanded size of the crossbench following this election, the traditional two-column format of the Mackerras pendulum had become strained, and that the crossbench deserved more attention than its position at the bottom-right of the table suggested.

Election analyst Ben Raue observed that the use of the two-party-preferred count in the Mackerras Pendulum also had the effect of classifying several seats as safer than they really were: for example, the seat of Macnamara ended up with a 12.25% margin of victory for the Labor candidate, but if just 0.64% of voters had changed their preference to rank the Greens higher than Labor, Labor would have finished third, with the Greens winning the seat by a similarly large margin.

To overcome some of these limitations, the pollster Jim Reed produced a new Reed Pendulum after the 2022 election. This uses a two-candidate-preferred margin to classify each seat instead of a notional two-party preference count for the major parties, and has three arms so that contests involving minor parties and independent candidates are more clearly identified. One or two swing figures can be used to calculate seat changes along the arms.

Change in composition Seats changing classification Includes gains. Seat Classification Swing(to winner) 2019 2022 Aston (VIC) Safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –7.32 Banks (NSW) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –3.06 Bendigo (VIC) Fairly safe Labor Safe Labor +3.29 Bennelong (NSW) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Labor +7.89 Boothby (SA) Marginal Liberal Marginal Labor +4.66 Braddon (TAS) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Liberal +4.94 Brisbane (QLD) Marginal LNP Marginal Greens +53.73 Calwell (VIC) Very safe Labor Safe Labor –7.32 Chisholm (VIC) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Labor +6.86 Cooper (VIC) Very safe Labor Safe Labor –6.16 Corangamite (VIC) Marginal Labor Fairly Labor +6.55 Cowan (WA) Marginal Labor Safe Labor +9.96 Cowper (NSW) Fairly safe National Marginal National –4.47 Curtin (WA) Safe Liberal Marginal Independent +51.20 Bonner (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Marginal LNP –4.00 Bowman (QLD) Safe LNP Marginal LNP –4.73 Capricornia (QLD) Safe LNP Fairly safe LNP –4.00 Dunkley (VIC) Marginal Labor Fairly safe Labor +3.52 Eden-Monaro (NSW) Marginal Labor Fairly safe Labor +7.35 Fairfax (QLD) Safe LNP Fairly safe LNP –4.00 Fisher (QLD) Safe LNP Fairly safe LNP –4.03 Flinders (VIC) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Liberal +1.06 Flynn (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Marginal LNP –4.84 Forde (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Marginal LNP –4.37 Fowler (NSW) Safe Labor Marginal Independent +51.63 Gippsland (VIC) Safe National Very safe National +3.90 Goldstein (VIC) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Independent +52.87 Gorton (VIC) Safe Labor Fairly safe Labor –7.32 Greenway (NSW) Marginal Labor Safe Labor +8.73 Griffith (QLD) Marginal Labor Safe Greens +60.46 Groom (QLD) Very safe LNP Fairly safe LNP –13.60 Hasluck (WA) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Labor +11.89 Herbert (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Safe LNP +3.41 Higgins (VIC) Marginal Liberal Marginal Labor +4.67 Indi (VIC) Marginal Independent Fairly safe Independent +7.55 Jagajaga (VIC) Fairly safe Labor Safe Labor +6.46 Kooyong (VIC) Marginal Liberal Marginal Independent +52.94 La Trobe (VIC) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Liberal +3.56 Lilley (QLD) Marginal Labor Safe Labor +9.90 Lindsay (NSW) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Liberal +1.30 Mackellar (NSW) Safe Liberal Marginal Independent +52.50 Macnamara (VIC) Fairly safe Labor Safe Labor +7.34 Macquarie (NSW) Marginal Labor Fairly safe Labor +7.58 Mallee (VIC) Safe National Very safe National +3.31 McPherson (QLD) Safe LNP Fairly safe LNP –2.86 Melbourne (VIC) Very safe Greens Safe Greens –12.44 Menzies (VIC) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –6.34 Monash (VIC) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –3.96 Moreton (QLD) Marginal Labor Fairly safe Labor +7.19 Nicholls (VIC) Very safe National Marginal National –16.22 North Sydney (NSW) Safe Liberal Marginal Independent +52.92 Oxley (QLD) Fairly safe Labor Safe Labor +5.20 Pearce (WA) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Labor +14.23 Petrie (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Marginal LNP –3.96 Reid (NSW) Marginal Liberal Marginal Labor +8.37 Richmond (NSW) Marginal Labor Fairly safe Labor +4.15 Robertson (NSW) Marginal Liberal Marginal Labor +6.50 Ryan (QLD) Fairly safe LNP Marginal Greens +52.65 Scullin (VIC) Very safe Labor Safe Labor –6.08 Sturt (SA) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –6.42 Swan (WA) Marginal Liberal Fairly safe Labor +11.99 Tangney (WA) Fairly safe Liberal Marginal Labor +11.88 Wannon (VIC) Safe Liberal Marginal Liberal –6.24 Wentworth (NSW) Marginal Liberal Marginal Independent +54.19

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