The 2025 Hamburg state election was held on 2 March 2025. It was held to elect the members of the 23rd Hamburg Parliament.
Background In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while The Left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.
The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP was represented by a non-attached member of parliament. Another member, Sami Musa, joined in January 2022, bringing the number of FDP seats to two, after leaving the SPD in September 2021. The party was reduced to a single seat when von Treuenfels-Frowein defected to the CDU in 2024. Metin Kaya, who was elected for The Left, joined the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in November 2023.
The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a red–green coalition.
Electoral system Since 2008 Hamburg elections have been held using an open-list system of proportional representation. The Sainte-Laguë method is used to distributed seats. Each voter has ten votes: Five votes can be cast for local constituency candidates and five for candidates on each party's state list. The state is divided into 17 constituencies of 3-5 seats. 71 representatives are elected in these based on the result of the constituency vote. A further 50 seats are elected as state list seat, based on the number of state list votes received by each party, distributed in such a way that the distribution of all 121 is proportional to the state list vote. Only parties receiving more than 5% of the state list votes are eligible to receive state list seats; there is no legal threshold for constituency seats.
If a party receiving less than 5% of the vote wins one or more constituency seats, the size of the legislature is increased beyond 121 members. A further seat is added if necessary, to ensure that the total number of members is odd.
Opinion polls Graphical summary
Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize SPD Grüne CDU Linke AfD FDP Volt BSW Others Lead 2025 state election 2 Mar 2025 –33.5 18.5 19.8 11.2 7.5 2.3 3.2 1.8 2.1 13.7Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,046331718129–3–815INSA 1,00032161713113–3515Federal election 23 Feb 2025 –22.719.320.714.410.94.51.54.01.92.0Infratest dimap 1,3083218171010333414Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,05532191899333413Infratest dimap 1,164312018893–3811Trend Research Hamburg 890342016611333414Infratest dimap9–13 Jan 20251,159312217594–489Trend Research Hamburg5–10 Dec 2024886322017710433412Infratest dimap20–25 Nov 20241,177 302119693344 9Forsa24–28 Oct 20241,017 302121584–47 11EP election 9 Jun 2024 –18.821.118.55.18.07.05.94.910.62.3Wahlkreisprognose15–25 Apr 20241,304 3221.51868.53.5–28.5 10.5Infratest dimap1–5 Feb 20241,164 302120795––8 9Trend Research Hamburg17–24 Oct 20231,068 31191810144––4 12Wahlkreisprognose24 Sep–2 Oct 20231,000 24.521.5218.5133––8.5 3Civey 26 Sep–24 Oct 20221,000 29 3020554––7.0 1Wahlkreisprognose 9–16 Sep 2022950 322715876––5 5Wahlkreisprognose 24–29 Jan 20221,000 4026.510657––5.5 13.52021 federal election26 Sep 2021–29.724.915.46.75.011.40.5–6.44.8 pmg – policy matters 2–11 Jun 2020 1,020 37 23 13 10 6 5–– 4 14 2020 state election 23 Feb 2020 – 39.2 24.2 11.2 9.1 5.3 4.91.3– 6.1 15.0
First mayor polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Lead SPD Greens CDU Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,250 51 14 15 36 Infratest dimap 1,308 49 16 16 33 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1,055 52 17 12 35 Infratest dimap 1,164 44 16 15 28 Infratest dimap 1,159 44 16 16 28 Infratest dimap 1,177 46 15 12 31
Results The incumbent red-green coalition won 70 of 121 seats and thus retained its majority. Tschentscher stated he would begin discussions over renewing the coalition as soon as possible. He also intends to talk to the CDU in view of that party's improved result, but called a grand coalition his "second choice".
The third Tschentscher senate was inaugurated on 7 May.
Overall results
Electorate The electorate statistics, based on exit-poll surveys, are as follows: Demographic SPD Grüne CDU Linke AfD FDP Volt BSW Other Total vote33.5% 18.5% 19.8% 11.2% 7.5% 2.3% 3.2% 1.8% 2.2% Sex Men32% 17% 22% 10% 9% 3% 4% 2% 1% Women35% 20% 18% 12% 6% 2% 3% 2% 2% Age 16–24 years old27% 16% 11% 25% 6% 4% 4% 2% 5% 25–34 years old25%25% 11% 20% 6% 3% 6% 2% 2% 35–44 years old28% 24% 16% 12% 8% 2% 6% 2% 2% 45–59 years old34% 19% 24% 6% 9% 2% 2% 2% 2% 60–69 years old41% 14% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 2% 2% 70 and older47% 9% 29% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% Employment status Self-employed 24% 20%26% 8% 11% 3% 3% 2% 3% Employees32% 21% 18% 11% 6% 2% 4% 2% 4% Workers32% 12% 18% 11% 15% 2% 4% 4% 2% Pensioners47% 8% 25% 6% 10% 2% 1% 1% 0% Education Simple education45% 8% 25% 6% 10% 2% 1% 1% 0% Medium education38% 9% 22% 10% 12% 2% 2% 2% 3% High education30% 23% 19% 12% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% Financial situation Good35% 19% 20% 10% 6% 2% 3% 1% 4% Bad24% 11% 15% 21% 17% 1% 3% 5% 3%
See also
2025 German federal election 2025 Hamburg referendums
Notes
References