Following the end of the civil war in 1991, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia was established with the 1995 constitution, which formalized a system of ethnic federalism. It aimed at undermining long-standing ethnic imperial rule, reducing ethnic tensions, promoting regional autonomy, and upholding unqualified rights to self-determination and secession in a state with more than 80 different ethnic groups. But the constitution is divisive, both among Ethiopian nationalists who believe it undermines centralized authority and fuels inter-ethnic conflict, and among ethnic federalists who fear that the development of its vague components could lead to authoritarian centralization or even the maintenance of minority ethnic hegemony.

Parliamentary elections since 1995 have taken place every five years since enactment. All but one of these have resulted in government by members of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) political coalition, under three prime ministers (Meles Zenawi, Hailemariam Desalegn and Abiy Ahmed). The EPRDF was under the effective control of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which represents a small ethnic minority. In 2019 the EPRDF, under Abiy, was dissolved and he inaugurated the pan-ethnic Prosperity Party which won the 2021 Ethiopian Election, returning him as prime minister. But both political entities were different kinds of responses to the ongoing tension between constitutional ethnic federalism and the Ethiopian state's authority. Over the same period, and all administrations, a range of major conflicts with ethnic roots have occurred or continued, and the press and availability of information have been controlled. There has also been dramatic economic growth and liberalization, which has itself been attributed to, and used to justify, authoritarian state policy.

Background

Ethiopia has more than 80 distinct ethnic groupings, each with its own size, language, religion, and culture. The top seven groups make up 83% of the population, according to the 2007 census. With only a 23.2% urbanization rate, it is primarily a rural nation (2023) and exhibits a wide variety of topography that impacts agricultural and economic activity. The significance of federalism in Ethiopia lies in this diversity and the history of the nation's reunification. Ethiopia's history has often been about the centralization and decentralization of power.

Historically, the kingdom of Abyssinia, as it was generally called before the mid-19th century, consisted mainly of the Amhara and Tigrayans. These northern people share a similar language, culture and customs and now comprise c. 24% and 6%, respectively, of modern Ethiopia. Tewodros II (1855–68) unified Ethiopia's north from 1855. His successor Yohannes IV (1872–89) embarked on a series of brutal military campaigns between 1880–1889 to conquer and annex the southern and eastern regions, namely western Oromo, Sidama, Gurage, Wolayta and other groups, producing approximately the current national borders. The conquest involved mass killings, enslavement, land confiscation and forcible conversion to Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, motivated by a cultural contempt for what were considered inferior peoples.

The inhabitants of the southern states had different languages and customs; most were Muslim. The most populous group, the Oromos (currently 34% of the population), occupied valuable agricultural and develop-able lands which now contain the capital Addis Ababa, the heart of urban Ethiopia and its industrial hub. That history is recalled even today by "land grabs" in southern Oromo heartlands by the ruling non-Oromo hegemony. There is similar competition for land and resources between the Amhara and Ethiopian Somalis in the north.

Ethiopian statehood has been internally controversial since the late 19th-century conquest by Emperor Menelik II. Questions of nationality were raised during the reign (1930-1974) of Emperor Haile Selassie, who introduced the country's first constitution in 1931. Eritrea was annexed in 1961, resulting in an armed uprising and the Eritrean War of Independence in 1962.

In 1974, a revolution was ignited by several classes as a response to the imperial government's failure to adapt to public demand on the economy, and a military coup ended Haile Selassie's government.

The military administration, known as the Derg and led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, was succeeded in 1987 by The People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (PDRE), which grew out of the Derg with Mengistu as President of Ethiopia leading a Marxist-Leninist one-party state. Over this period, the Ethiopian Empire was abolished and reversals of imperial policy came into effect. The feudal socioeconomic structure was dismantled. The nationalization of land was codified in 1975. In 1976, the Derg declared its goals for establishing scientific socialism through the "National Democratic Revolution Programme (NDRP)". The program affirmed the equality of ethnic groups in Ethiopia and self-determination through regional autonomy. However, power remained centralized, with support from the Soviet Union and other communist bloc countries. Military campaigns started by Haile Selassie continued: against the resistance within Eritrea and the Somali Ogaden invasion of 1977/78.

Famine, such as that of 1983–1985, reliance on foreign aid, and the decline of the world communist movement, undermined the Derg/PDRE administrations. The Soviet Union ended support of the PDRE in 1990. The Eritrean War of Independence and the Ethiopian Civil War brought about the end of the regime. It collapsed in May 1991 when the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) entered Addis Ababa, dissolving the PDRE and bringing about the Transitional Government of Ethiopia.

Overview

Tigray People's Liberation Front dominance (1991–2018)

In July 1991, the EPRDF convened a National Conference to establish the Transitional Government of Ethiopia composed of an 87-member Council of Representatives and guided by a national charter that functioned as a transitional constitution. In June 1992, the Oromo Liberation Front withdrew from the government; in March 1993, members of the Southern Ethiopia Peoples' Democratic Coalition also left the government. In 1994, a new constitution was written that established a parliamentary republic with a bicameral legislature and a judicial system.

The first multiparty election took place in May 1995, which was won by the EPRDF. The president of the transitional government, EPRDF leader Meles Zenawi, became the first Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, and Negasso Gidada was elected its president. In post-Derg Ethiopia's Constitution (promulgated in 1995), the EPRDF not only took over the Derg's Soviet-inspired promise of cultural and administrative autonomy for the country's over 80 ethnic groups but also borrowed the right to independence (secession) from the Soviet Constitution. In this manner, an ethnoterritorial federal model of statehood was adopted for Ethiopia (as originally developed in the Central European empire of Austria-Hungary and in the interwar Soviet Union).Asnake Kefale, Tomasz Kamusella and Christopher Van der Beken. 2021. Eurasian Empires as Blueprints for Ethiopia: From Ethnolinguistic Nation-State to Multiethnic Federation. London: Routledge, pp 44–45.

In October 2001, Lieutenant Girma Wolde-Giorgis was elected president. Ethiopia's 3rd multiparty election on 15 May 2005 was highly disputed, with many opposition groups claiming fraud. Though the Carter Center approved the pre-election conditions, it expressed its dissatisfaction with post-election events. European Union election observers cited state support for the EPRDF campaign, as well as irregularities in ballot counting and results publishing. The opposition parties gained more than 200 parliamentary seats, compared with just 12 in the 2000 elections. While most of the opposition representatives joined the parliament, some leaders of the CUD party who refused to take up their parliamentary seats were accused of inciting the post-election violence and were imprisoned. Amnesty International considered them "prisoners of conscience" and they were subsequently released.

A coalition of opposition parties and some individuals were established in 2009 to oust the government of the EPRDF in legislative elections of 2010. Meles' party, which has been in power since 1991, published its 65-page manifesto in Addis Ababa on 10 October 2009. The opposition won most votes in Addis Ababa, but the EPRDF halted the counting of votes for several days. After it ensued, it claimed the election, amidst charges of fraud and intimidation.

Meles died on 20 August 2012 in Brussels, where he was being treated for an unspecified illness. Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn was appointed as a new prime minister until the 2015 elections, and remained so afterwards with his party in control of every parliamentary seat.

Protests broke out across the country on 5 August 2016, and hundreds of protesters were subsequently shot and killed by police. The protesters demanded an end to human rights abuses, the release of political prisoners, a fairer redistribution of the wealth generated by over a decade of economic growth, and a return of Wolqayt District to the Amhara Region. Following these protests, Ethiopia declared a state of emergency on 6October 2016, which was lifted in August 2017. On 16 February 2018, the government of Ethiopia declared another nationwide state of emergency following the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. Hailemariam was the first ruler in modern Ethiopian history to step down; previous leaders have died in office or been overthrown.

Eritrean–Ethiopian border conflict

In April 1993, Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia after a national referendum. While relations between the two countries were initially friendly, by May 1998, a border dispute with Eritrea led to the Eritrean–Ethiopian War, which lasted until June 2000 and cost both countries an estimated $1 million a day, leaving a profoundly negative impact on their economies. Major combat operations ended after signing a peace treaty in December 2000; however, skirmishes and proxy conflicts between the two nations would continue until 2018.

War in Somalia

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, and with the rise of radical Islamism, Ethiopia again turned to the Western powers for alliance and assistance. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, the Ethiopian army began to train with US forces based out of the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) established in Djibouti, in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency. Ethiopia allowed the US to station military advisors at Camp Hurso.

In 2006, an Islamic organisation seen by many as having ties with al-Qaeda, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), spread rapidly in Somalia. Ethiopia sent logistical support to the Transitional Federal Government opposing the Islamists. Finally, on December 20, 2006, active fighting broke out between the ICU and Ethiopian Army. As the Islamist forces were of no match against the Ethiopian regular army, they decided to retreat and merge among the civilians, and most of the ICU-held Somalia was quickly taken. Human Rights Watch accused Ethiopia of various abuses including indiscriminate killing of civilians during the Battle of Mogadishu (March–April 2007). Ethiopian forces pulled out of Somalia in January 2009, leaving a small African Union force and smaller Somali Transitional Government force to maintain the peace. Reports immediately emerged of religious fundamentalist forces occupying one of two former Ethiopian bases in Mogadishu shortly after withdrawal.

East Africa drought