2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election

The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election for New York's 19th congressional district was held on August 23, 2022, to fill the vacancy created by Democratic U.S. representative Antonio Delgado who resigned to become lieutenant governor of New York. Democratic nominee Pat Ryan defeated Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.

Candidates Democratic Party Nominee Pat Ryan, Ulster County executive and candidate for this district in 2018

Declined Michelle Hinchey, state senator from the 46th district (endorsed Ryan) Zephyr Teachout, special advisor in the office of the Attorney General of New York, Fordham University law professor; candidate for governor in 2014, nominee for this district in 2016, candidate for attorney general in 2018 and 2022

Republican Party Nominee Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County executive and former state assemblyman; nominee for governor in 2018

Endorsements

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report May 5, 2022 Inside Elections July 21, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball May 11, 2022

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error PatRyan (D) MarcMolinaro (R) UndecidedData for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)August 17–22, 20221,222 (LV)± 3.0%45%53%2%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%43%46%11%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R)July 26–28, 2022407 (LV)± 4.9%40%50%11%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)June 29–30, 2022581 (LV)± 4.0%40%43%16%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R)June 16–20, 2022505 (LV)± 4.4%38%52%10%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican UndecidedDCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)August 6–8, 2022480 (LV)± 4.5%44%45%12%

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 Candidate Amount raised Amount spent Cash on hand Marc Molinaro (R) $1,593,762 $993,626 $600,136 Pat Ryan (D) $1,582,369 $1,265,848 $316,522 Source: OpenSecrets

Results Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising. Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election. Ultimately, the special election foreshadowed 2022 would not go on to be a red wave, as while Republicans would narrowly flip the House of Representatives, they would lose a seat in the United States Senate.

CountyPat RyanDemocraticMarc MolinaroRepublicanWrite-inMarginTotalvotesTurnout#%#%#%#%Broome 8130.0018970.0000.00-108-40.00270 18.90Columbia9,02657.356,70442.6080.052,32214.7515,738 32.71Delaware3,03341.424,28758.5520.03-1,254-17.137,322 24.85Dutchess 12,25748.4413,03051.49170.07-773-3.0525,304 31.07Greene3,63239.215,62660.7440.04-1,994-21.539,262 28.67Montgomery 44036.4876663.5200.00-326-27.031,206 14.16Otsego4,15348.264,43451.52190.22-281-3.278,606 24.23Rensselaer 3,90145.134,73954.8330.04-838-9.708,643 18.51Schoharie1,64234.053,17665.8550.10-1,534-31.814,823 24.27Sullivan3,88142.725,19657.1980.09-1,315-14.479,085 18.84Ulster24,04261.7514,86338.17300.089,17923.5838,935 31.35 Totals66,08851.1563,01048.77960.073,0782.38129,19427.16 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Dutchess (largest municipality: Poughkeepsie) Otsego (largest municipality: Oneonta) Rensselaer (largest municipality: Troy) Sullivan (largest municipality: Monticello)

See also 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 2022 United States elections 117th United States Congress List of special elections to the United States House of Representatives

Notes

Partisan clients

References