A regional election will be held in the Region of Murcia on 23 May 2027 to elect the 12th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election. It will be held concurrently with regional elections in at least six other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
Overview Electoral system The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally.
Election date The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on 23 May 2027.
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.
Parliamentary composition The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the present time.
+ Current parliamentary composition Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 21 21 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 13 13 Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 7 7 Mixed Group Podemos 2 4 INDEP 2
Parties and candidates The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Fernando López Miras ConservatismChristian democracy 42.8% PSOE Francisco Lucas Ayala Social democracy 25.6% Vox Rubén Martínez Right-wing populismUltranationalismNational conservatism 17.7% Podemos–IU–AV María Marín Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 4.7%
Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout SALF Lead CEMOP 1–17 Sep 2026 821 63.8 43.1 17.7 25.4 5.3 – – – 17.7 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 22–29 May 2026 1,180? 43.5 24.0 18.8 6.1 – – – 19.5 Sigma Dos/La 7 18–21 May 2026 1,000????? – – 2.7? OBEDE/UCAM 13–28 Apr 2026 800 62.5 43.8 24.5 23.0 2.9 – – – 19.3 CEMOP 20 Jan–6 Feb 2026 820 65.5 37.7 24.1 25.7 4.3 – – – 12.0 OBEDE/UCAM 18–28 Nov 2025 800 58.1 37.6 23.3 27.2 – – 4.1 – 10.4 CEMOP 3–21 Nov 2025 820 64.8 38.3 23.9 25.3 5.5 – – – 13.0 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 30 Aug–28 Sep 2025 1,310? 43.3 31.1 15.4 1.5 1.3 5.6 – 12.2 CEMOP 1–12 Sep 2025 820 63.6 36.1 25.8 27.9 5.6 – – – 8.2 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 26 Apr–5 Jun 2025 1,072? 43.8 26.5 17.5 4.5 – – – 17.3 NC Report/La Razón 16–31 May 2025 350???? – – – –? SyM Consulting 16–19 Apr 2025 1,000 52.0 41.0 26.4 23.4 4.3 1.6 – – 14.6 CEMOP 24 Mar–4 Apr 2025 820 61.9 42.8 24.5 22.4 4.1 – – – 18.3 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 28 Nov–28 Dec 2024 1,310? 42.1 31.3 13.8 2.1 2.2 3.3 – 10.8 CEMOP 25 Nov–11 Dec 2024 820 60.1 46.6 23.9 20.7 3.1 – – – 22.7 OBEDE/UCAM 15–29 Nov 2024 800 60.2 46.3 23.3 19.6 – – – – 23.0 SyM Consulting 15–19 Oct 2024 1,000 61.4 45.4 25.8 19.5 4.0 2.6 – – 19.6 CEMOP 23 Sep–4 Oct 2024 820 62.4 44.1 24.9 18.8 5.1 – – – 19.2 Sigma Dos/La 7 2–11 Sep 2024 1,004? 46.8 26.6 16.3 4.3 – – 3.1 20.2 Data10/OKDiario 15–16 Jul 2024 1,500? 46.6 27.7 14.2 3.4 – – – 18.9 NC Report/La Razón 13–16 Jul 2024 1,000 64.2 47.0 23.8 15.9 3.1 – – – 23.2 2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 46.8 42.9 25.1 15.9 2.4 – 3.3 6.6 17.8 CEMOP 20–30 May 2024 820 63.4 46.1 26.9 17.9 4.7 – – – 19.2 CEMOP 5–22 Mar 2024 818 62.7 47.7 24.3 16.7 5.4 – – – 23.4 CEMOP 11–22 Jan 2024 817 63.8 41.8 24.8 20.4 5.1 – – – 17.0 2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 70.8 41.2 25.3 21.8 – 9.5 – 15.9 CEMOP 3–13 Jul 2023 1,200 68 44.3 25.3 17.5 5.7 – – – 19.0 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 63.2 42.8 25.6 17.7 4.7 3.0 – – 17.2
Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size SALF Lead CEMOP 1–17 Sep 2026 821 25.1 8.9 15.0 2.8 – – 22.2 17.5 10.1 CEMOP 20 Jan–6 Feb 2026 820 24.9 14.6 20.3 3.2 – – 18.8 6.8 4.6 CEMOP 3–21 Nov 2025 820 22.7 15.9 17.5 3.9 – – 17.3 12.0 5.2 CEMOP 1–12 Sep 2025 820 22.0 16.2 18.2 4.0 – – 18.5 12.5 3.8 CEMOP 24 Mar–4 Apr 2025 820 21.3 15.0 12.3 2.6 – – 26.3 13.8 6.3 CIS 7–31 Mar 2025 256 34.0 29.4 11.0 1.5 1.7 – 17.0 3.3 4.6 CEMOP 25 Nov–11 Dec 2024 820 28.8 9.5 11.8 1.6 – – 24.6 17.1 17.0 CEMOP 23 Sep–4 Oct 2024 820 24.5 13.4 14.7 3.0 – – 23.5 14.0 9.8 2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 20.6 12.0 7.6 1.1 1.6 3.2 51.7 8.6 CEMOP 20–30 May 2024 820 32.6 16.7 14.1 4.6 – – 19.0 9.3 15.9 CEMOP 5–22 Mar 2024 818 28.9 11.7 9.3 4.0 – – 24.9 16.7 17.2 CEMOP 11–22 Jan 2024 817 28.8 13.0 13.5 2.7 – – 21.8 13.7 15.3 2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 28.9 17.7 15.3 6.7 – 29.2 10.9 CEMOP 3–13 Jul 2023 1,200 35.0 20.7 17.8 5.3 – – 10.6 5.4 14.3 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 27.2 16.3 11.3 3.0 – – 34.3 10.9
Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Region of Murcia.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead CIS 7–31 Mar 2025 256 34.1 19.6 7.1 1.1 3.5 34.5 14.5
Notes
References Opinion poll sources
Other