Opinion polling for the 2024 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, held on 30 January, to the day the next election was held on 10 March.

Nationwide polling Graphical summary

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead2024 legislative election 10 Mar 2024 59.9 28.028.8 18.1 4.9 4.4 3.2 2.0 3.2 7.5 0.8 CESOP–UCP 10 Mar 2024 36,149 62–68 25–2929–33 14–17 5–7 4–6 2–4 1.5–2.5 3–5 4 ICS/ISCTE–GfK/Metris 10 Mar 2024 20,888 53.5–59.5 24.2–28.427.6–31.8 16.6–20.8 4.1–7.3 3.2–6.4 1.3–4.5 0.5–3.1 2.3–4.9 3.4 Pitagórica 10 Mar 2024 28,089 59.5–64.5 24.5–29.528.0–33.0 16.6–21.6 3.3–6.3 3.0–6.0 2.3–5.3 0.8–2.8 2.2–5.2 3.5 Intercampus 10 Mar 2024 24,328 57–6123.8–29.827.2–33.215.6–20.63.3–7.32.7–6.71.2–5.20.5–3.52.1–6.1 3.4Duplimétrica5–7 Mar 2024600?2935156531426Duplimétrica4–6 Mar 2024600?2935146531436 Consulmark2 1–6 Mar 2024 801? 27.029.8 18.2 6.4 5.2 2.5 1.2 4.6 5.12.8Duplimétrica3–5 Mar 2024600?2835156541427CESOP–UCP28 Feb–5 Mar 20242,405?2834166551326Duplimétrica2–4 Mar 2024600?2736165631429 Intercampus 28 Feb–4 Mar 2024 802 ? 25.031.5 16.8 8.4 5.9 2.3 4.0 4.6 1.56.5Duplimétrica1–3 Mar 2024600?2635175631349Duplimétrica29 Feb–2 Mar 2024600?2635174641439Duplimétrica28 Feb–1 Mar 2024600?2734185531347Duplimétrica27–29 Feb 2024600?2734175521457Duplimétrica26–28 Feb 2024600?2632186622446Duplimétrica25–27 Feb 2024600?2733176522446 Aximage 23–27 Feb 2024 809 ?33.129.6 16.7 3.9 6.6 4.0 2.0 1.7 2.43.5Duplimétrica24–26 Feb 2024600?2633176521367CESOP–UCP22–26 Feb 20241,207?2733176532436Duplimétrica23–25 Feb 2024600?2633177521367ICS/ISCTE17–25 Feb 2024907 ?3031174532261Duplimétrica22–24 Feb 2024600?2631178621455Duplimétrica21–23 Feb 2024600?282820762135TieCESOP–UCP19–21 Feb 20241,284?2935176421336Duplimétrica10–20 Feb 2024800?2629207422373 Intercampus 8–17 Feb 2024 1,203 ? 26.026.4 20.8 8.4 6.8 3.0 3.1 3.7 2.00.4 Aximage 8–13 Feb 2024 805 ?33.127.7 16.4 4.9 6.3 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.25.4 Consulmark2 6–12 Feb 2024 804? 27.430.0 18.1 5.5 4.2 2.6 1.1 2.9 8.12.6Intercampus 6–10 Feb 2024608?25.627.818.87.56.23.13.73.14.22.2 CESOP–UCP 24 Jan–1 Feb 2024 1,192? 2832 19 6 5 2 1 3 44ICS/ISCTE16–25 Jan 2024804 ?2927215531182 Aximage 16–20 Jan 2024 801 ?32.727.4 16.2 4.2 8.0 2.6 2.9 1.9 4.15.3Intercampus 16–20 Jan 2024637?30.924.319.46.38.74.62.61.51.86.6 Consulmark2 11–17 Jan 2024 801? 26.728.1 17.5 6.3 7.2 3.3 1.2 2.1 7.51.4 Aximage 18–23 Dec 2023 805 ?34.1 24.8 1.2 16.3 4.1 6.3 2.7 3.7 1.8 5.09.3 Intercampus 18–21 Dec 2023 611 ?29.3 26.0 1.8 13.4 7.6 10.1 2.7 3.5 3.3 2.33.3Consulmark2 17–20 Dec 2023 803? 24.137.6 12.0 4.9 9.1 3.3 1.1 2.8 5.013.5? 26.527.5 1.7 15.2 5.8 7.7 2.8 0.8 2.3 9.71.0 Consulmark2 30 Nov–6 Dec 2023 575? 26.030.0 2.3 17.2 6.7 4.4 2.1 1.4 2.3 7.64.0 CESOP–UCP 15–24 Nov 2023 1,102? 2829 2 16 9 6 3 2 2 31 Aximage 18–23 Nov 2023 802 ?32.9 26.7 1.5 16.2 5.0 6.9 3.2 2.9 2.0 2.76.2 Intercampus 14–17 Nov 2023 604 ?25.5 23.6 2.0 14.6 9.1 10.2 3.5 4.7 3.2 3.61.9 Aximage 10–13 Nov 2023 504 ?28 27 1 18 6 9 3 3 3 21 Intercampus 7–8 Nov 2023 602 ? 22.227.0 2.5 16.1 8.7 9.8 4.0 2.8 3.3 3.64.8Aximage 18–24 Oct 2023 805 ?28.6 24.9 1.6 14.6 6.7 7.1 3.8 4.8 2.9 5.03.7 Intercampus 18–23 Oct 2023 604 ? 27.327.9 1.7 12.7 9.0 7.3 4.4 3.5 1.5 4.70.6Aximage 2–5 Oct 2023 601 ?29.3 25.6 2.6 13.6 5.3 7.1 4.3 3.6 2.8 5.83.7ICS/ISCTE16–25 Sep 2023804?312521336622106 Intercampus 9–14 Sep 2023 614 ?30.0 28.6 0.8 12.8 9.3 6.4 4.3 2.1 2.3 3.41.4 Intercampus 7–11 Aug 2023 607 ?27.9 26.6 1.1 13.4 8.3 8.0 3.7 3.4 2.8 4.81.3CESOP–UCP 6–15 Jul 2023 1,006? 3233 1 10 7 7 4 1 2 31Aximage 6–11 Jul 2023 800 67.928.8 27.7 1.1 13.0 5.2 8.0 3.2 3.8 2.7 6.51.1 Intercampus 3–6 Jul 2023 623 ?25.2 24.5 1.2 13.6 9.8 9.5 4.6 4.8 2.5 4.30.7CESOP–UCP 1–21 Jun 2023 2,042? 3235 1 9 6 6 3 1 1 63 Intercampus 25–31 May 2023 611 ? 24.526.3 2.4 12.9 8.8 10.2 4.1 3.9 2.4 4.51.8ICS/ISCTE13–28 May 20231,204 ?31301134552181 Intercampus 4–5 May 2023 606 ?25.7 25.5 1.8 14.7 8.4 9.6 4.2 2.4 2.3 5.40.2Aximage 10–14 Apr 2023 805 70.2 28.328.6 1.3 12.1 6.1 6.3 3.5 4.5 2.7 6.60.3 Intercampus 6–12 Apr 2023 610 ?28.1 26.9 1.6 14.7 8.2 7.8 4.8 2.6 1.2 4.11.2 ICS/ISCTE 11–20 Mar 2023 807 ?3030 2 13 4 5 5 2 1 8Tie Intercampus 9–15 Mar 2023 613 ?28.4 27.3 1.5 15.2 7.9 7.2 3.6 1.7 2.7 4.51.1CESOP–UCP 9–17 Feb 2023 1,002?32 31 1 11 8 7 4 2 2 21 Intercampus 3–10 Feb 2023 602 ?28.4 27.6 1.1 14.1 9.0 5.8 4.7 2.9 1.6 4.80.8 Pitagórica 11–17 Jan 2023 828 ? 26.930.6 0.0 14.2 8.0 5.6 2.2 0.9 1.9 9.73.7Aximage10–14 Jan 202380565.127.125.11.412.99.56.64.83.13.46.12.0 Intercampus 6–11 Jan 2023 605 ?31.1 29.5 0.7 10.7 7.6 7.5 3.7 3.7 2.4 3.31.6 Pitagórica 9–15 Dec 2022 828 ?35.9 30.4 0.7 9.1 5.2 3.4 4.3 0.6 2.2 8.25.5 ICS/ISCTE 3–15 Dec 2022 809 ?37 29 0 9 2 7 5 3 0 88 Intercampus 12–14 Dec 2022 663 ?30.9 25.3 2.2 11.0 8.6 8.6 4.4 3.6 1.9 3.55.6 Intercampus 15–20 Nov 2022 605 ?28.8 26.2 1.6 13.6 8.0 7.3 6.4 2.7 2.7 2.72.6 Pitagórica 11–17 Nov 2022 828 ?35.1 30.4 1.3 8.2 6.1 3.8 5.1 1.2 2.0 6.84.7 Intercampus 17–22 Oct 2022 607 ?33.2 29.1 0.7 10.8 8.6 7.1 3.0 2.1 2.6 2.84.1 Pitagórica 11–17 Oct 2022 828 ?36.2 30.0 1.6 9.3 7.9 3.9 3.8 1.2 1.0 5.16.2 Aximage 21–24 Sep 2022 810 59.234.5 30.9 1.9 8.9 6.7 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.1 5.03.6 ICS/ISCTE 10–18 Sep 2022 807 ?37 28 0 11 3 4 4 3 0 109 Intercampus 9–15 Sep 2022 606 ?35.5 28.7 1.3 10.7 6.0 6.0 3.4 2.9 2.1 3.46.8 Intercampus 3–10 Aug 2022 605 ?38.5 26.5 0.8 9.8 8.3 5.8 2.6 1.5 2.2 4.012.0 Pitagórica 28 Jul–10 Aug 2022 828 ?36.7 27.6 2.5 9.5 8.5 4.4 4.2 1.5 1.5 3.69.1CESOP–UCP 11–15 Jul 2022 885?38 30 1 9 6 5 5 1 2 38 Intercampus 6–11 Jul 2022 605 ?39.8 22.5 2.3 9.4 9.6 6.1 3.2 2.5 1.9 2.717.3 Aximage 5–10 Jul 2022 810 57.235.8 30.1 1.4 10.2 6.1 5.6 3.3 1.9 2.0 3.65.7 Pitagórica 21 Jun–4 Jul 2022 828 ?38.9 24.9 1.8 8.3 8.6 5.3 3.9 1.2 1.8 5.314.0 Intercampus 8–14 Jun 2022 611 ?38.8 24.6 3.0 9.3 7.8 5.9 3.6 3.0 1.4 2.614.2 Intercampus 7–15 May 2022 611 ?39.5 21.2 3.3 8.8 7.8 5.9 4.1 4.1 2.1 3.218.3 Aximage 12–18 Apr 2022 807 ?40.7 25.2 2.2 7.8 7.9 4.0 4.1 1.5 1.5 5.115.5 Pitagórica 15–20 Feb 2022 600 ?37.1 31.7 1.4 5.6 7.3 4.5 4.3 1.3 2.7 4.15.42022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 1.6 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3

Other scenarios

Jorge Moreira da Silva as PSD leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead Pitagórica 7–24 Apr 2022 625 ?42.3 19.9 6.4 10.3 5.1 4.5 1.7 1.1 2.4 6.322.4 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3

Luís Montenegro as PSD leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead Pitagórica 7–24 Apr 2022 625 ?41.5 21.6 5.7 10.0 5.1 4.3 2.0 1.4 2.4 6.019.9 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3

Luís Montenegro as PSD leader and Nuno Melo as CDS-PP leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead Pitagórica 15–20 Feb 2022 600 ?36.5 30.6 4.2 7.2 4.4 4.4 5.3 1.3 2.5 3.65.9 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3 Pedro Nuno Santos as PS leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout LeadICS/ISCTE18–27 Nov 2023803 ?29 26 15 6 6 4 1 3 1 35.9 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3 José Luís Carneiro as PS leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout LeadICS/ISCTE18–27 Nov 2023803 ?30 25 15 6 5 3 2 3 2 35.9 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 7.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3

PSD/CDS–PP/IL coalition

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead Consulmark2 17–20 Dec 2023 803? 24.342.0 12.8 8.5 3.5 0.9 3.2 4.917.7 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 1.6 4.9 7.2 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.3 4.3 12.3

Constituency polling Madeira Unlike the rest of the country, in Madeira, the PSD and CDS–PP contested the election under a coalition called Madeira First, while PPM presented a list of its own. Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2024 legislative election 10 Mar 2024 58.935.4 19.8 9.6 17.6 3.9 2.9 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 15.6 Intercampus 26 Feb–3 Mar 2024 401? 34.6 22.3 6.4 9.9 9.1 3.3 3.7 1.8 1.8 2.7 4.4 12.3 Aximage 21–29 Feb 2024 512? 46.5 24.9 5.1 12.4 4.0 2.7 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.2 21.6 2023 regional election 24 Sep 2023 53.343.1 21.3 11.0 8.9 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.5 2.2 21.8 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 50.339.8 31.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 3.2 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 2.2 8.3

Leadership polls Preferred prime minister Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Pedro Nuno Santos vs Luís Montenegro Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Both/ Lead Intercampus 28 Feb–4 Mar 2024 30.8 44.1 25.1 13.3 CESOP–UCP 19–21 Feb 2024 34 46 20 12 Intercampus 6–10 Feb 2024 30.0 40.6 29.4 10.6 Intercampus 16–20 Jan 2024 36.3 31.2 32.5 5.1 Consulmark2 11–17 Jan 2024 31.1 34.8 22.3 11.7 3.7Aximage18–23 Dec 2023 37 34 29 3Intercampus18–21 Dec 2023 28.2 24.1 31.4 4.1 12.2 4.1CESOP–UCP15–24 Nov 2023 39 40 21 1Aximage18–23 Nov 2023 47 31 22 16Intercampus14–17 Nov 2023 35.9 30.7 33.4 5.2Aximage10–13 Nov 2023 33 40 27 7Intercampus 6–12 Apr 2023 27.0 44.9 28.1 17.9

António Costa vs Luís Montenegro Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Both/ LeadAximage18–24 Oct 2023 34 20 40 1 5 14Aximage2–5 Oct 2023 26 22 39 6 7 4Aximage6–11 Jul 2023 37 20 38 2 3 17Aximage10–14 Apr 2023 38 21 34 2 5 17Intercampus9–15 Mar 2023 40.6 26.8 5.2 27.4 13.8Aximage10–14 Jan 2023 38 19 37 1 5 19 Aximage 21–24 Sep 2022 38 20 30 1 11 18 Intercampus 9–15 Sep 202243.6 30.0 3.6 22.8 13.6 Aximage 5–10 Jul 2022 45 17 28 2 8 28

Other scenarios

José Luís Carneiro vs Luís Montenegro Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Both/ LeadCESOP–UCP15–24 Nov 2023 42 37 21 5Aximage18–23 Nov 2023 38 37 25 1Intercampus14–17 Nov 2023 34.2 30.4 35.4 3.8Aximage10–13 Nov 2023 28 43 29 15

Possible PS candidates vs Luís Montenegro

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Both/ LeadIntercampus6–12 Apr 2023 36.9 42.0 21.1 5.1 30.7 43.4 25.9 12.7 22.1 49.8 28.1 27.7 20.8 46.1 33.1 25.3

Party leaders' ratings Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10 (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).