Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election

The European Parliament election was held between 6 and 9 June 2024. This article lists national polls for the European Union (EU) election as well as EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates.

Polling aggregations Seat projections Europe Elects, Der Föderalist and Politico Europe have been presenting seat projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. All projections make their national-level data transparent, except Politico Europe, which only presents aggregate EU-level data.

Polling aggregator Date updatedNumber of seatsThe LeftS&DG/EFARenewEPPECRIDNIOthers2024 electionAfter reorganisation of groups16 July 20247204613653771887884 (as PfE)33+25 ESN–Dynamic9 June 2024720401365480188826476–Baseline9 June 202472039136547817773584867PolitPro9 June 2024720401394081 17474894340Politico Europe6 June 2024720321434175 17376675855election.de6 June 2024720421385885 181826965–Cassandra-odds.com5 June 2024720381455789 167847367–euobserver5 June 2024720431405279178896376–Europe Elects4 June 2024720381365581 1827969764Der FöderalistBaseline3 Jun 2024720371365781 17279665042Dynamic720401375885 186807856–Euronews23 May 2024720431355482 181808362–2019 electionAfter Brexit705401486797187627628–Before Brexit7514115474108182627357–

Popular vote projections Europe Elects has been presenting popular vote projections throughout the legislative period. Other institutes started presenting data during the election campaign. Polling aggregator Date updatedThe LeftS&DG/EFARenewEPPECRIDNIOthers 2024 election 9 June 2024 6.7 % 19.2 % 8.8 % 10.4 % 21.2 % 12.3 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 3.4 %PolitPro9 June 20245.6%19.3%5.6%11.3% 24.2%10.3%12.4%6.0%5.3%The Economist9 June 20246.0%16.0%6.0%10.0% 22.0%10.0%9.0%7.0%14.0%Europe Elects31 May 20246.4%19.8%7.7%11.2% 21.1%12.2%8.5%8.9%4.2%2019 electionBefore Brexit6.5%18.5%11.7%13.0%21.0%8.2%10.8%7.2%3.1%

Seats 361 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the European Parliament.

OrganisationReleasedateAreaNumber of seatsThe LeftS&DG/EFARenewEPPECRIDNIOthersLeadelection.de6 June 2024EU27720421385885 18182696543Europe Elects for EURACTIV4 June 2024EU277203813655811827969764 46election.de30 May 2024EU27720431415784 17981686738Europe Elects for EURACTIV27 May 2024EU2772039138568618075687624223 May 2024Germany's AfD is expelled from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.election.de23 May 2024EU27720431395687 17983805340Europe Elects for EURACTIV16 May 2024EU27720431345485182838354248election.de9 May 2024EU27720401405589 17780845537Europe Elects for EURACTIV28 Apr 2024EU27720441404886 183868448143EM Analytics30 April 2024EU2772040139558517684796237Der Föderalist26 Apr 2024EU27720351325186 1738183354441720391345389 18186993947EM Analytics22 Apr 2024EU27720391395186 18186776142election.de22 Apr 2024EU27720391385290 17380876135Europe Elects for EURACTIV16 Apr 2024EU27720401395284 184828452345election.de8 Apr 2024EU27720391385586 17681856038Europe Elects for EURACTIV28 Mar 2024EU27720471355287 184818248449election.de22 Mar 2024EU27720401395489 17684835537Ipsos for Euronews19 Mar 2024EU27720421365585 17776816841Europe Elects for EURACTIV18 Mar 2024EU27720461355086 183848943448Politico Europe9 Mar 2024EU27720331414890 18087895239election.de8 Mar 2024EU27720391425186 17186865929Europe Elects for EURACTIV1 Mar 2024EU27720451404982 181839244441Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27720351354885 1767885364241371374889 183821014346Europe Elects for EURACTIV19 Feb 2024EU27720441404885 180839243640election.de7 Feb 2024EU27720421384978 17688945538Europe Elects for EURACTIV1 Feb 2024EU27720421405182180809149540ECFR23 Jan 2024EU2772044131618617385984242Europe Elects for EURACTIV15 Jan 2024EU27720371435084178809349635election.de9 Jan 2024EU27720411414580 17986955338Politico Europe9 Jan 2024EU27720331454386 17889965033Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27720331414586 1697589433928351434791 177851083434Europe Elects30 Dec 2023EU27720361424984 179819350637Politico Europe11 Dec 2023EU27720331454787 17591915130Europe Elects30 Nov 2023EU27720381415289175828752435KAS29 Nov 2023EU277204214348871717879413035Politico Europe9 Nov 2023EU27720381434991 17990854536Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27720431374390 1707876374533461384796 17889923440Europe Elects31 Oct 2023EU27720451395192173807653113412 Oct 2023PES (S&D's party) suspends Slovakia's Smer–SD and Hlas–SD due to their coalition with the sovereignist SNS party.Politico Europe9 Oct 2023EU27720401514989 17293824421Europe Elects30 Sep 2023EU27720431455290 165867456102122 Sep 2023The European Council approves the new apportionment in the European Parliament from 705 to 720 seats.Der Föderalistrowspan="4" EU27720431474691 1627774364315451475096 17190893224705421444690 1577772354113441445095 16589873121Politico Europe7 Sep 2023EU27705421464691 16793764421Europe Elects31 Aug 2023EU27720381495390 1648375581015Politico Europe9 Aug 2023EU27705451454889 16589774720Europe Elects31 Jul 2023EU27705451434990 1578282551214Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705411364894 1607970364124431375299 16789873130Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705491375092 1627967333625501375499 17282832835Europe ElectsEU27705511414989 1638564511122Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705441374294 16278683842254614146102 17081843529Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705501354296 16878653734335213847103 17282803134Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705511364493 16679643735305313950100 17083803031Europe ElectsEU277054914256100 158846346716Europe ElectsEU277055513553106 162816641627Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU277055212742100 16979633538425413048108 17484802744Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705521344798 17075632739365413753107 17580762338Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU277055413344101 16577643136325613654106 16881792532Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705591393997 15778643735186014349102 15984763216Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705531393698 15878624536195514244105 160109622818Europe ElectsEU27705491525599 158786235176Der Föderalistrowspan="2"EU27705511423999 16573623440235314643105 166102622820Europe ElectsEU27705501555510314681753649Der Föderalistrowspan="2"EU27705501444296 15575723635115214848107 15623120518Europe ElectsEU27705501555110215181753554Europe ElectsEU27705501544794 156787536152Der Föderalistrowspan="2"EU27705541414298 16070753332195614548107 160221165115Der Föderalistrowspan="2"EU27705521334597 16771743135345413849108 168231174830Europe ElectsEU277055214455941567577341812Europe ElectsEU27705511465892155767435189Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27 705 50 125 50 95 167 74 73 33 3842 52 130 54 109 167 87 74 32 37Europe ElectsEU277055214456931587574341914Europe ElectsEU27705511515293159747432198Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705521364696 16471733433285414149109 164857330233 Mar 2021Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU277055213545941847071213349531414810718473712849Europe ElectsEU277055513847971907372221152Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705521364793 18867732029525314040103 18873732548Europe ElectsEU277055513648951956873231259Europe ElectsEU27705541364893197707424961Der Föderalistrowspan="2" EU27705511274996 19367712130665213652102193717128–57Europe ElectsEU27705551364995195717723459Europe ElectsEU27705551344996196717524562Europe ElectsEU27705541344997198707523564Europe ElectsEU27705541334897198717724365Europe ElectsEU27705551354798197707723362Europe ElectsEU27705551404694193727823453Europe ElectsEU27705571355192188728321653Europe ElectsEU27705561335599184688521651Europe ElectsEU27705551305310118270852365231 Jan 2020The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.Europe ElectsEU277055413152102182708625351Europe ElectsEU2875153153521031771038225324Europe ElectsEU287514915761107176958025119Europe ElectsEU287514615162115175927830224Europe ElectsEU287514815163118170877932319Europe ElectsEU287514715464116166898032312Europe ElectsEU287514815365117168857933315Europe ElectsEU287514614574119167648054222Redistribution of seats after BrexitEU27705401486897187627627–392019 European Parliament electionEU287514115474108182627357–28

Popular vote

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.