2006 New Brunswick general election

The 2006 New Brunswick general election was held on September 18, 2006, to elect 55 members to the 56th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

The campaign came earlier than expected: the incumbent Premier of New Brunswick, Bernard Lord, had pledged a vote would be held on October 15, 2007 but when the ruling Progressive Conservatives faced a loss of its majority in the legislature, Lord said he did not want to face a minority government and, moreover, feared that a by-election could tip the balance of power to the opposition Liberals.

The campaign was hard-fought with pundits and pollsters calling it too close to call throughout the five-week campaign. In the end, it was won by the Liberals led by Shawn Graham. The Liberals won 29 seats to 26 for the Progressive Conservatives, although the Progressive Conservatives won a plurality of the popular vote (47.5% to 47.2%).

Unusually, the Liberals won 17 of the 36 predominantly anglophone ridings, their best showing in a competitive election in English New Brunswick since the 1944 election. The Conservatives conversely did better than they have ever done while losing an election among Francophone ridings.

Overview

Following the report of the Commission on Legislative Democracy in December 2004, which recommended fixed election dates beginning on October 15, 2007, Premier Bernard Lord pledged to introduce legislation fixing election dates, beginning on that date. Due to this, and because it is tradition in New Brunswick to hold elections every four years, the Progressive Conservative government and media had routinely referred to this as the "2007 election" through early 2006. The opposition Liberals however always pledged to try to force an early election.

From February through May 2006, it seemed possible that the Liberals might be successful in their goal as on February 17, 2006 Michael Malley left the Progressive Conservative caucus creating a minority government situation, Malley later became Speaker and, as Speaker, controversially rejoined the government caucus. The situation remained difficult for some time as the Liberals gained control of several key committees upon Malley's defection and would not return control to the government as they did not recognize Malley's change of affiliation while speaker. On May 30, 2006, the House reaffirmed its confidence in Malley in a vote and on May 31, 2006 the government and opposition announced a truce to allow the House to function more easily including a legislative calendar through 2007. As a result, it seemed unlikely that the government would fall prior to its chosen date to go to the polls.

However, Peter Mesheau, a Progressive Conservative MLA who had already announced that he would not run for re-election, said he would have to resign his seat as he had accepted a job in the private sector. Lord said that he would not face another hung parliament and announced on August 10, 2006 that he would seek an election date of September 18. On August 18, Lord asked Lieutenant-Governor Herménégilde Chiasson to dissolve the legislature and set the election date.

The emerging key issues of the campaign seem to be leadership and energy prices. The Progressive Conservatives have for some years questioned the leadership abilities of Shawn Graham, the leader of the opposition while the Liberals have been focusing on energy in general as a theme for some time. Moreover, energy has come to the forefront due to the introduction of gas price regulation by Lord's government on July 1, 2006, and the Liberals announced their energy platform prior to the beginning of the campaign.

This election was the first campaign since the 1987 election in which Elizabeth Weir did not lead the smaller social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP). In 2005, Weir stepped down after seventeen years as NDP leader. She was succeeded by Fredericton-based social activist Allison Brewer, who stood for election in the riding of Fredericton-Lincoln.

The Progressive Conservative party were again led by Bernard Lord and the Liberal Party by Shawn Graham.

The campaign was derided by journalists and political scientists as boring in part because much of the campaign was before Labour Day when many families were still taking summer holidays and also because the overall aspects of the two main parties were similar.

There were three English language debates and two French languages debates with some being declared draws, some wins for Lord and some wins for Graham by the experts. Opinion polls showed the Conservatives with a lead in the early days of the campaign but the last few weeks showed ties or slight edges to the Liberals within the margin of error.

On election day, Shawn Graham and the Liberals won the most seats, however, they lost the popular vote. Bernard Lord was the first premier not elected to a third term since Hugh John Flemming lost his bid for a third term in the 1960 election while the NDP suffered a considerable blow being shut out of the legislature despite having won a seat in 5 of the last 6 elections and seeing their popular vote slip 4% to their worst showing since the 1974 election.

Issues

The Fredericton Daily Gleaner reported on August 11, 2006 that they had asked the leaders of each party for what they thought the key issues of the campaign would be: Benard Lord, PC Leader: jobs, the economy, health care and senior care Shawn Graham, Liberal Leader: education, economic development and energy Allison Brewer, NDP Leader: high energy prices

An opinion poll, conducted for CTV Atlantic by the Innovative Research Group the last week of the campaign found the follow issues were top of mind for voters: Health Care (22%) Education (11%) Jobs/Unemployment (10%) Gas Prices/Oil (8%) Political Leaders/Leadership (4%) Senior Care/Nursing Homes (4%) Taxes/Taxation (3%) Cost of living/Inflation (3%) Social Issues (2%)

Results

Results by party

| style="text-align:left;" |Shawn Graham | style="text-align:right;" |55 | style="text-align:right;" |26 | style="text-align:right;" |26 | style="text-align:right;" |29 | style="text-align:right;" |+11.5% | style="text-align:right;" |176,410 | style="text-align:right;" |47.1% | style="text-align:right;" |+2.7%

| style="text-align:left;" |Bernard Lord | style="text-align:right;" |55 | style="text-align:right;" |28 | style="text-align:right;" |28 | style="text-align:right;" |26 | style="text-align:right;" |-7.1% | style="text-align:right;" |177,744 | style="text-align:right;" |47.5% | style="text-align:right;" |+2.1%

| style="text-align:left;" |Allison Brewer | style="text-align:right;" |48 | style="text-align:right;" |1 | style="text-align:right;" |0 | style="text-align:right;" |0 | style="text-align:right;" |-100% | style="text-align:right;" |19,212 | style="text-align:right;" |5.1% | style="text-align:right;" |-4.6%

| | style="text-align:right;" |4 | style="text-align:right;" |- | style="text-align:right;" |1 | style="text-align:right;" |- | style="text-align:right;" | | style="text-align:right;" |935 | style="text-align:right;" |0.2% | style="text-align:right;" |+0.1% |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3" |Total | style="text-align:right;" |162 | style="text-align:right;" |55 | style="text-align:right;" |55 | style="text-align:right;" |55 | style="text-align:right;" |- | style="text-align:right;" |374,301 |colspan="2"|100% |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="11" |Source: http://www.gnb.ca/elections

Results by region

Party NameCentralNorth EastNorth WestSouth EastSouth WestTotalLiberal Seats:51124729 Popular Vote:46.0%53.6%41.6%43.6%48.5%47.2%ProgressiveConservative Seats:42510526 Popular Vote:47.7%40.2%54.2%53.0%44.5%47.5%Total seats: 9137141255Parties that won no seats:NewDemocratic Popular Vote:6.3%5.9%4.2%3.5%6.0%5.1%Independents Popular Vote:-0.3%--0.9%0.2%

Results by riding

Many new and changed districts will be used for the first time in this election as a result of an electoral redistribution.

Legend bold denotes cabinet minister or party leader italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election * denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northeast

| style="background:whitesmoke;"|1. Campbellton-Restigouche Centre | |Greg Davis 3,248 (43.4%) || |Roy Boudreau 4,232 (56.6%)

|Roy Boudreau |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|2. Dalhousie-Restigouche East | |Ronald Barriault 2,081 (25.9%) || |Donald Arseneault 5,502 (68.5%) | |Lyndsey Gallant 454 (5.6%)

|Donald Arseneault |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|3. Nigadoo-Chaleur | |Gérard Mallais 2,597 (35.7%) || |Roland Haché 4,311 (59.5%) | |Lucie Desaulnier 334 (4.6%)

|Roland Haché |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|4. Bathurst | |Nancy McKay 3,037 (46.1%) || |Brian Kenny 3,224 (48.9%) | |Blair Lindsay 328 (5.0%)

|Brian Kenny |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|5. Nepisiguit | |Gerry Legere 2,448 (42.3%) || |Cheryl Lavoie 2,844 (49.2%) | |Charles Fournier 489 (8.5%)

|Frank Branch† |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|6. Caraquet | |Claude L'Espérance 1,677 (23.2%) || |Hédard Albert 4,580 (63.4%) | |Stéphane Doiron 966 (13.4%)

|Hédard Albert |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|7. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou || |Paul Robichaud 4,348 (57.5%) | |Denis Roussel 2,795 (37.0%) | |Juliette Paulin 418 (5.5%)

|Paul Robichaud |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|8. Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Sauveur | |Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,235 (43.9%) || |Denis Landry 4,142 (56.1%)

|Denis Landry |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|9. Tracadie-Sheila || |Claude Landry 4,043 (53.4%) | |Serge Rousselle 3,281 (43.3%)

|Stephane Richardson (Ind.) 250 (3.3%) || |Elvy Robichaud† |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|10. Miramichi Bay-Neguac | |Guy Vautour 1,963 (28.7%) || |Carmel Robichaud 3,083 (45.1%) | |Roger Duguay 1,791 (26.2%)

|Carmel Robichaud |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|11. Miramichi-Bay du Vin | |Michael Malley 2,720 (38.4%) || |Bill Fraser 4,187 (59.1%) | |Dwayne Hancock 181 (2.6%)

|Michael Malley |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|12. Miramichi Centre | |George Smith 2,732 (40.6%) || |John Foran 3,747 (55.6%) | |Douglas Mullin 258 (3.8%)

|John Foran |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|13. Southwest Miramichi | |Brent Taylor 2,844 (44.5%) || |Rick Brewer 3,327 (52.1%) | |Lydia Calhoun 217 (3.4%)

|Rick Brewer

Southeast

| style="background:whitesmoke;"|14. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac || |Rose-May Poirier 4,332 (55.5%) | |Emery Comeau 3,112 (39.9%) | |Oscar Doucet 356 (4.6%)

|Rose-May Poirier |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|15. Kent | |Aldéo Saulnier 3,060 (45.0%) || |Shawn Graham 3,534 (51.9%) | |Graham Cox 209 (3.1%)

|Shawn Graham |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|16. Kent South || |Claude Williams 4,890 (58.5%) | |Nadine Hébert 3,463 (41.5%)

|Claude Williams |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|17. Shediac-Cap-Pelé | |Leo Doiron 3,639 (40.3%) || |Victor Boudreau 5,116 (56.6%) | |Richard Pellerin 283 (3.1%)

|Victor Boudreau |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|18. Tantramar || |Mike Olscamp 2,690 (54.4%) | |John Higham 1,718 (34.7%) | |Virgil Hammock 536 (10.8%)

|Peter Mesheau† |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|19. Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe | |Fortunat Duguay 2,680 (39.3%) || |Bernard LeBlanc 3,845 (56.4%) | |Carl Bainbridge 287 (4.2%)

| colspan="2" style="text-align:center; background:whitesmoke;"|new district |-

2006 New Brunswick general election

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