The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada was returned once more with a minority of the seats, and the composition of the House saw very little change.
Summary
The election was described as being "like a game of tug of war in which the rope won." The remarkable similarity of the seat results and those in 2019 may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre outcome has left its mark on the electorate. Both the Liberals and Conservatives saw marginal declines in their national shares of the votes.
Compared to 2019, Tory holds in Western Canada and Liberal ones in the GTA both declined, although one Conservative observer noted, "I am far more encouraged by the narrowing of margins in the suburbs, than I am discouraged or concerned by an Alberta MP only winning by 30,000 votes".
The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3%, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it. Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27, which took effect on November 14, after being officially accepted by the party's federal council.
In late November, the Greens released a report indicating that they were facing imminent insolvency, and were considering closing the Ottawa office. The party had lost 499 monthly donors since July 2021, and 6,259 members in the same length of time.
The increase of the People's Party share from 1.6% to 4.9% may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings. Votes obtained by individual PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc. Observers noted that a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.
Eight ridings were won by a margin of 1% or less, and judicial recounts were requested in four of them. One riding flipped from the Bloc to the Liberals, one Bloc victory was confirmed, and two proceedings were terminated when it became obvious that no change would occur.
Synopsis of results + Canadian federal election results (September 20, 2021)↓ 160 119 32 25 2 Liberal Conservative
Post-election pendulum
The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2021 election are noted for reference.
= seats that changed hands in the election
Liberal (160 seats)Margins 5% or less Châteauguay—Lacolle QC BQ– Davenport ON NDP0.1 Brome—Missisquoi QC BQ0.4 Sault Ste. Marie ON Con0.6 Vancouver Granville BC NDP0.9 Fredericton NB Con1.1 Kitchener—Conestoga ON Con1.1 Windsor—Tecumseh ON NDP1.1 Edmonton Centre AB Con1.3 Hamilton Mountain ON NDP1.7 Kitchener South—Hespeler ON Con2.0 Richmond Centre BC Con2.2 Sydney—Victoria NS Con2.9 Halifax NS NDP3.0 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation QC BQ3.0 Cloverdale—Langley City BC Con3.1 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill ON Con3.1 Kanata—Carleton ON Con3.2 Parkdale—High Park ON NDP3.3 Cambridge ON Con3.6 Niagara Centre ON Con3.8 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country BC Con3.9 London West ON Con4.4 Spadina—Fort York ON NDP4.4 Long Range Mountains NL Con5.0 Sudbury ON NDP5.0 Thunder Bay—Rainy River ON Con5.0Margins 5%10% Laurier—Sainte-Marie QC NDP5.1 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne QC BQ5.1 St. Catharines ON Con5.2 Newmarket—Aurora ON Con5.5 Bonavista—Burin—Trinity NL Con5.7 Vaughan—Woodbridge ON Con5.7 Northwest Territories Terr NDP5.9 Oakville ON Con6.1 Compton—Stanstead QC BQ6.1 Mississauga—Lakeshore ON Con6.2 Calgary Skyview AB Con6.3 Québec QC BQ6.4 Hochelaga QC BQ6.5 Markham—Unionville ON Con6.7 Nipissing—Timiskaming ON Con7.0 Yukon Terr Con7.0 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine QC BQ7.1 Nickel Belt ON Con8.0 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam BC Con8.2 Whitby ON Con8.2 Burlington ON Con8.4 Delta BC Con8.5 Sherbrooke QC BQ8.5 Malpeque PE Con8.7 Oakville North—Burlington ON Con8.8 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek ON Con8.9 Richmond Hill ON Con8.9 Steveston—Richmond East BC Con9.0 York Centre ON Con9.5 Vancouver Centre BC NDP9.7Margins 10%20% Burnaby North—Seymour BC NDP10.4 Pickering—Uxbridge ON Con10.8 St. John's East NL NDP10.9 Louis-Hébert QC BQ11.1 Cape Breton—Canso NS Con11.4 Nepean ON Con11.4 Kingston and the Islands ON NDP11.8 London North Centre ON Con12.0 Eglinton—Lawrence ON Con12.1 Labrador NL Con12.3 Saint-Maurice—Champlain QC BQ12.3 Markham—Stouffville ON Con12.5 Ottawa Centre ON NDP12.5 Glengarry—Prescott—Russell ON Con12.8 Etobicoke Centre ON Con13.1 Mississauga—Streetsville ON Con13.1 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin QC BQ13.3 Saint John—Rothesay NB Con13.5 Thunder Bay—Superior North ON NDP13.6 Winnipeg South MB Con13.7 Central Nova NS Con13.9 Fleetwood—Port Kells BC Con14.4 Vancouver Quadra BC Con14.7 Toronto—Danforth ON NDP14.7 Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook NS Con14.9 Egmont PE Con15.1 Brampton Centre ON Con15.2 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas ON Con15.4 Kings—Hants NS Con15.5 Etobicoke—Lakeshore ON Con15.5 Charlottetown PE Con15.6 Saint Boniface—Saint Vital MB Con15.8 Avalon NL Con15.8 Surrey Centre BC NDP16.2 Ottawa West—Nepean ON Con16.4 North Vancouver BC Con17.0 Don Valley West ON Con17.2 Mississauga—Erin Mills ON Con17.3 Willowdale ON Con17.3 Waterloo ON Con17.4 Winnipeg South Centre MB Con17.7 Mississauga East—Cooksville ON Con17.7 Guelph ON Con18.0 Milton ON Con18.4 Outremont QC NDP19.4 Dartmouth—Cole Harbour NS NDP19.6 Cardigan PE Con19.7Margins > 20% Brampton South ON Con20.6 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun QC BQ20.8 Alfred-Pellan QC BQ21.7 Mississauga—Malton ON Con22.2 University—Rosedale ON NDP22.3 Ottawa South ON Con22.8 Pontiac QC Con22.8 Orléans ON Con23.1 Brampton North ON Con23.5 Winnipeg North MB NDP23.7 Toronto—St. Paul's ON Con23.9 Halifax West NS NDP24.3 Vaudreuil—Soulanges QC BQ24.3 Toronto Centre ON NDP24.4 Don Valley North ON Con24.6 Vancouver South BC NDP24.8 Brampton East ON Con25.3 Ottawa—Vanier ON NDP25.4 Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe NB Con25.7 Mississauga Centre ON Con26.0 Gatineau QC BQ26.6 Vimy QC BQ26.6 Brampton West ON Con27.0 Scarborough—Agincourt ON Con27.5 Papineau QC NDP27.6 Surrey—Newton BC NDP27.9 Madawaska—Restigouche NB Con29.4 Laval—Les Îles QC BQ29.8 Ajax ON Con30.2 Ahuntsic-Cartierville QC BQ30.4 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs QC NDP31.8 St. John's South—Mount Pearl NL NDP32.8 Scarborough Centre ON Con32.2 Mount Royal QC Con33.2 Beaches—East York ON NDP34.1 Brossard—Saint-Lambert QC BQ34.2 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount QC NDP34.6 Etobicoke North ON Con34.7 Markham—Thornhill ON Con35.2 Pierrefonds—Dollard QC Con35.2 York South—Weston ON Con35.9 Beauséjour NB Con36.2 Hull—Aylmer QC BQ36.3 Don Valley East ON Con36.4 Scarborough Southwest ON Con36.7 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle QC BQ36.7 Lac-Saint-Louis QC Con37.4 Scarborough-Guildwood ON Con39.8 Saint-Laurent QC Con40.6 Scarborough—Rouge Park ON Con41.7 Bourassa QC BQ41.7 Humber River—Black Creek ON Con43.3 Honoré-Mercier QC BQ43.7 Scarborough North ON Con47.7 Acadie—Bathurst NB Con51.0 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel QC Con58.9NDP (25 seats)Margins 5% or less Nanaimo—Ladysmith BC Con1.7 Edmonton Griesbach AB Con3.4 North Island—Powell River BC Con3.5Margins 5%10% Port Moody—Coquitlam BC Con5.3 South Okanagan—West Kootenay BC Con5.8 Skeena—Bulkley Valley BC Con6.5 Timmins-James Bay ON Con7.9 Burnaby South BC Lib9.9Margins 10%20% Nunavut Terr Lib11.8 Courtenay—Alberni BC Con12.2 Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing ON Con12.7 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford BC Con14.4 Windsor West ON Lib16.4 Victoria BC Lib16.6 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski MB Lib17.4 London—Fanshawe ON Con19.1Margins > 20% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke BC Lib20.7 Elmwood—Transcona MB Con21.6 Winnipeg Centre MB Lib21.9 Hamilton Centre ON Lib22.2 Vancouver Kingsway BC Lib24.9 New Westminster—Burnaby BC Lib25.1 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie QC Lib25.4 Edmonton Strathcona AB Con35.2 Vancouver East BC Lib36.6