In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the day of the election, held on 7 May 2026.

It was the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It was also be the first election following reforms to the voting system, which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopted a party-list voting system, reduced the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortened its term from five years to four. However the 23 October 2025 Caerphilly by-election where 33,689 votes were cast used first-past-the-post voting.

Opinion polling Polling using the 2026 electoral system For the 2026 election, Wales was divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies elected six members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.

Labour led in most polls until early 2025, when opinion polls began to show Plaid Cymru and Reform as each leading or tied.

DatesconductedPollsterClientSamplesizeLabConPCGrnLDRefOthersLead2026 Senedd election–11.1%10.7% 35.4%6.7%4.5%29.3%2.3%6.11–6 May 2026FindOutNowN/A2,0019%11%35%9%6%28%2% 71–6 May 2026SurvationN/A1,05415%10%30%7%6%28%3% 227 Apr – 4 May 2026YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University4,64712%9%33%8%6%29%3% 42 Mar – 27 Apr 2026More in CommonN/A2,15916%12%30%9%4%27%2% 3SurvationS4C/Aberystwyth University834 15%10%28%10%4%30%4% 2Find Out NowPlaid Cymru2,01210%13%29%11%6%27%4% 2YouGovITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University2,38713%8%29%10%6%29%4%TieJL PartnersThe Telegraph2,05016%12%29%9%6%25%4% 430 Jan – 10 Apr 2026More in CommonN/A2,51921%11%25%10%7%25%2%TieIpsosN/A74715%12%30%10%6%25%2% 5Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru45917%9%30%11%6%27%2% 3YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University2,97813%7%33%12%5%27%4% 6More in CommonN/A85120%10%26%10%7%26%1%TieMore in CommonN/A80620%13%24%5%6%31%1% 7Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru48620%10%29%7%5%27%1% 2YouGov ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University1,220 10%10%37%13%5%23%2% 14FindOutNow N/A1,50312%12%30%9%7%29%2% 1YouGov Cardiff University1,89110%10%33%9%6%30%2% 3Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru50521%12%26%9%3%27%1% 12025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from LabourBeaufort Research Nation.Cymru53323%11%22%9%4%30%2% 7YouGovBarn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University1,23214%11%30%6%6%29%4% 1Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru40027%13%21%6%5%25%2% 2More in CommonSky News88323%10%26%4%7%28%2% 2FindOutNowN/A2,10118%11%27%7%7%29%1% 2YouGovITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University1,26518%13%30%5%7%25%2% 5SurvationN/A80927%15%24%5%5%24%1% 3Beaufort ResearchNation.Cymru1,00027%16%24%5%4%23%1% 3YouGovBarn Cymru1,12123%19%24%6%5%23%1% 1Beaufort ResearchNation.Cymru50027%18%17%6%6%24%2% 3SurvationSurvation asked voters to give their preferences under the previous Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.Reform UK2,00629%18%20%7%7%19%1% 9Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of WalesWelsh Election StudyN/A2,56525%16%24%6%6%16% 1 2024 United Kingdom general electionYouGovBarn Cymru1,07227%18%23%5%6%18%3% 4Redfield & WiltonN/A96036%22%18%6%6%11% 14YouGovBarn Cymru1,06630%19%23%6%6%12%4% 7Redfield & WiltonN/A90037%20%20%5%3%10% 17The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.2021 Senedd election (regional)– 36.2%25.1%20.7%4.4%4.3%1.1%8.2%11.12021 Senedd election (constituency)– 39.9%26.1%20.3%1.6%4.9%1.6%5.6%13.8

Past opinion polling The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that were abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

DatesconductedPollsterClientSamplesizeLabConPCGrnLDAWAUKIPRefOthersLeadThe Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.Redfield & WiltonN/A84033%18%19%6%7%5%–12%1% 14Redfield & WiltonN/A87832%16%18%9%7%6%–11%1% 14Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of WalesRedfield & WiltonN/A87429%16%25%4%8%7%–10%1% 4Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10034%19%21%6%6%6%–7%1% 13Redfield & WiltonN/A1,08628%20%24%7%8%4%–7%1% 4Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10032%21%18%9%6%5%–7%1% 11Redfield & WiltonN/A95931%21%24%4%5%7%–8%0% 10Redfield & WiltonN/A1,17235%21%18%6%12%2%–5%1% 14YouGovBarn Cymru1,05134%16%20%6%6%9%1%6%2% 14Redfield & WiltonN/A1,06831%19%22%6%10%––10%3% 9Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05033%20%19%6%10%––6%4% 13Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00030%22%20%6%9%––8%4%8Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid CymruYouGovBarn Cymru1,06436%16%18%7%7%5%1%7%1%18Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05830%21%24%4%10%––8%4%6Redfield & WiltonN/A1,25132%22%23%7%8%––7%2%9YouGovBarn Cymru1,08139%18%20%5%5%6%–6%2%19YouGovBarn Cymru1,04238%16%23%5%2%8%2%4%15YouGovBarn Cymru1,01437%18%21%5%5%7%2%4%1%16YouGovBarn Cymru1,02031%21%24%6%5%6%2%6%7YouGovBarn Cymru1,08634%23%20%4%6%6%1%3%11YouGovITV Wales1,00935%22%19%7%3%6%2%5%1%13YouGovITV Wales1,05733%26%19%5%4%6%4%2%1%72021 Senedd election–36.2%25.1%20.7%4.4%4.3%3.7%1.6%1.1%2.9%11.1

By section DateconductedPollsterClientSubsectionSamplesizeLabConPCGrnLDRefLeadNovember 2024Beaufort ResearchNation.CymruSouth West Wales and the Valleys1000 (500)28131946271Cardiff and South East Wales342310681611North and Mid Wales2118248424TieMale voters28201067271Female voters27152665201Aged 16-3437921971716Aged 34-54321521481911Aged over 5521221565297ABC128231876155C2DE26111756348Welsh speakers24163156177Non-Welsh speakers29181366263

Constituency vote

DatesconductedPollsterClientSamplesizeLabConPCLDAWAGrnRefOtherLeadThe Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.Redfield & WiltonN/A84037%21%22%4%3%3%10%0% 15Redfield & WiltonN/A87836%21%21%3%3%3%11%1% 15Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of WalesRedfield & WiltonN/A87434%21%19%6%4%3%13%0% 13Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10039%25%18%3%3%4%9%1% 14Redfield & WiltonN/A1,08641%22%17%7%3%3%7%0% 19Redfield & WiltonN/A1,10040%23%18%3%3%4%7%0% 17Redfield & WiltonN/A95937%27%18%4%5%3%6%0% 10Redfield & WiltonN/A1,17239%27%18%5%1%6%3%1% 12YouGovBarn Cymru1,05141%18%19%6%–4%8%7% 22Redfield & WiltonN/A1,06837%21%20%6%–3%9%4% 16Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05042%22%16%6%–3%7%3% 20Redfield & WiltonN/A1,00036%22%19%7%–3%10%3% 14Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid CymruYouGovBarn Cymru1,06440%18%17%7%–5%8%4% 22Redfield & WiltonN/A1,05838%23%20%7%–3%7%2% 15Redfield & WiltonN/A1,25141%21%20%5%–4%8%2% 20YouGovBarn Cymru1,08143%18%20%4%–4%9%1% 23YouGovBarn Cymru1,04244%17%20%6%–3%7%4%24YouGovBarn Cymru1,01440%20%22%6%–3%5%4%18YouGovBarn Cymru1,02037%24%21%6%–5%5%3%13YouGovBarn Cymru1,08638%24%21%6%–3%5%4%14YouGovITV Wales1,00940%23%17%4%–5%7%4%17YouGovITV Wales1,05737%27%19%5%–4%5%5%102021 Senedd election–39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%1.6%1.6%5.6%13.8

Seat projections

Various modelling efforts produced seat projections ahead of the election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

49 seats needed for a majority.

+ Seat projections by poll aggregators Organisation Datesconducted Lab Con PC Grn LD Ref Others Majority 2026 election 9 743 2 1 34 0 Plaid Cymru −6YouGov25 Apr – 4 May 20261244321340 Plaid Cymru −6 YouGov 6 Apr – 15 Apr 2026 12 3 36 7 137 0 Reform −12 More in Common 30 Jan – 10 Apr 2026 24 730 4 3 28 0 Plaid Cymru −19 Beaufort Research 2 – 22 Mar 2026 15 637 6 2 30 0 Plaid Cymru −12YouGov9 – 18 Mar 202612143100300 Plaid Cymru −6 Beaufort Research 19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 23 735 1 1 29 0 Plaid Cymru −14YouGov5 – 12 Jan 20268645113230 Plaid Cymru −4YouGov 28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025863953350 Plaid Cymru −10 Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort 24 7 25 2 137 0 Reform −12 2021 election 30 16 13 0 1 0 0 Labour −1

See also List of political parties in Wales Opinion polling on Welsh independence Polling in Wales for 2024 United Kingdom general election Polling in Wales for the next United Kingdom general election

Notes

Methodology

References