The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the 2024 presidential election and other elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein defeated Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He succeeded Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.
Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.
Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since 2008 (Franklin and Jackson), 2004 (Alamance, Brunswick, and Transylvania), and 1980 (Cabarrus and Henderson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a state Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1976 to not flip a county in the state.
Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state. Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. Stein received 354,121 more votes than Harris, while Robinson received 657,114 votes less than Trump. According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by 23 percentage points, which contributed to Robinson's defeat. Following his loss, Robinson retired from politics.
Background A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.
Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.
The Democratic nominee was Josh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. The Republican nominee was Mark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor.
The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. Stein won 37 counties and Robinson won 63. Of the three gubernatorial races that went blue in 2024, North Carolina went bluest in its overall margin, even though the other two were significantly more Democratic states.
Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–2025)
Eliminated in primary Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief Michael R. Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023) Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate
Declined Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present) (endorsed Stein) Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from (2023–2024) (endorsed Stein, ran for Attorney General) Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present) (endorsed Stein) Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present) (endorsed Stein)
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ChrelleBooker GaryFoxx MichaelMorgan JoshStein MarcusWilliams Other UndecidedHigh Point UniversityFebruary 16–23, 2024322 (LV)± 6.0%10%10%14%57%9%––Change Research (D)February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%––8%49%–4%39%East Carolina UniversityFebruary 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%2%2%7%57%3%–29%Meredith CollegeJanuary 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%5%3%4%31%2%4%51%Public Policy Polling (D)December 15–16, 2023556 (LV)± 4.2%3%1%5%56%4%–32% December 15, 2023 Foxx joins the race December 14, 2023 Williams joins the race November 2, 2023 Booker joins the raceMeredith CollegeNovember 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%––11%38%–7%44%Meredith CollegeSeptember 16–19, 2023308 (RV)± 3.5%––11%33%–10%46%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MandyCohen JeffJackson JoshStein Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%18%12%22%9%39%
Results
Republican primary Candidates Nominee Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–2025)
Eliminated in primary Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–2025) Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008
Withdrawn Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive (ran for Secretary of State) Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House) Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020
Declined Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (endorsed Graham)
Endorsements
Debate + 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas1 September 12, 2023 Wake CountyRepublican Party Bill LuMaye YouTube
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DaleFolwell BillGraham MarkRobinson JesseThomas MarkWalker AndyWells Other UndecidedHigh Point UniversityFebruary 16–23, 2024394 (LV)± 6.0%17%33%51%9%––––Capen Analytics (R)February 21, 202412,580 (LV)± 5.0%29%18%53%–––––Change Research (D)February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%9%9%57%–––3%22%East Carolina UniversityFebruary 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%7%13%53%––––27%Meredith CollegeJanuary 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%4%9%34%–––10%42%Public Policy Polling (D)January 5–6, 2024619 (LV)± 3.9%7%15%55%––––24% December 16, 2023 Wells withdraws from the raceEast Carolina UniversityNovember 29 – December 1, 2023445 (LV)± 5.4%7%8%34%––3%–49% November 2, 2023 Thomas withdraws from the raceMeredith CollegeNovember 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%3%5%41%2%–1%6%42% October 25, 2023 Walker withdraws from the race October 18, 2023 Graham joins the raceCygnal (R)October 8–9, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%5%–49%1%4%1%–41%Meredith CollegeSeptember 16–19, 2023350 (RV)± 3.5%3%–34%3%7%3%6%44%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DaleFolwell PatMcCrory MarkRobinson ThomTillis SteveTroxler MarkWalker Other UndecidedOpinion Diagnostics (R)June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%4%–44%––7%7%38%SurveyUSAApril 25–29, 2023707 (LV)± 4.4%4%–43%–9%8%–37%Differentiators (R)December 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0% 6%–60%––––34%– 21%60%––––19%––58%–– 8%–34%Public Policy Polling (D)October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%4%–54%20%––5%17%
Results
Other candidates Libertarian Party Nominee Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022
Results
Green Party Nominee Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party
Constitution Party Nominee Vinny Smith, treasurer of the North Carolina Constitution Party
General election Campaign Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial. Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.
Calls for Robinson to drop out On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012. Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance. This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race. His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside". Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts". That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married. The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.
Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportSeptember 20, 2024 Inside ElectionsSeptember 26, 2024 Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 19, 2024 RCPSeptember 28, 2024Fox News September 25, 2024 Elections DailySeptember 19, 2024 CNalysisOctober 15, 2024 Split TicketOctober 19, 2024
Post-primary endorsements
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJosh Stein (D)$84,064,178$82,450,647$1,901,820Mark Robinson (R)$20,012,299$19,799,956$250,001Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedJoshStein (D)MarkRobinson (R) UndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsOctober 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.8%8.1%Stein +14.3%270ToWinOctober 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.0%8.9%Stein +15.1%The Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.4%38.8%7.8%Stein +14.6%Average53.2%38.5%8.2%Stein +14.7%