The 2023 Kwara State gubernatorial election was held on 18 March 2023, to elect the incumbent Governor of Kwara State, concurrent with elections to the Kwara State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. The election — which was postponed from its original 11 March date — was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (APC) was re-elected by a 25.6% margin over PDP nominee Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi.
The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in AbdulRazaq being renominated by the All Progressives Congress unopposed on 26 May while the Peoples Democratic Party nominated Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi on 25 May. For the Social Democratic Party, its first primary on 25 May was annulled leading to a rerun on 30 May; both primaries were won by Hakeem Lawal.
The day after the election, INEC declared AbdulRazaq as the victor with him winning about 273,000 votes (~59% of the vote) to defeat Abdullahi with around 155,000 votes (~34% of the vote) while Lawal trailed in third place with nearly 19,000 votes (~4% of the vote). Abdullahi alleged electoral irregularities but did not initiate a legal challenge to the results.
Electoral system The governor of Kwara State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background Kwara State is a large state in the North Central with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing agricultural underdevelopment, deforestation, and insecurity. The state's 2019 elections had a large swing towards the state APC. Although the APC had won most 2015 elections in Kwara, the vast majority of APC officeholders left the party in 2018 to follow Senator Bukola Saraki into the PDP; despite the Saraki dynasty's longstanding control over Kwaran politics, the APC-led Ó Tó Gẹ́ movement swept the state in 2019. The APC won all three senate seats back and in the process, defeated Saraki by a wide margin. Similarly, the APC gained five PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and all but one seat in the House of Assembly. These results, coupled with presidential incumbent Muhammadu Buhari (APC) winning the state with nearly 70%, led to the categorization of the 2019 elections as a seismic shift in the state's politics.
During AbdulRazaq's 2019 campaign, he based pledges on improving government transparency, rehabilitating transportation, and gender inclusivity among others. In terms of his performance, AbdulRazaq was praised for education policy, healthcare investment, appointing Nigeria's first majority-women state cabinet, and social investment programmes. On the other hand, he was criticized for mishandling the demolition of a Saraki family property, alleged ethnic and regional prejudice when making a KWASU appointment, illegally dismissing elected local government chairmen and failing to conduct constitutionally-mandated local government elections, and raising the state debt. Primary elections The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June. According to some candidates and community leaders from the Northern district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kwara North Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Kwara governors have come from either the Kwara Central or Kwara South Senatorial Districts. In accordance with these calls, the PDP zoned its nomination to the North but the APC did not close its primary to non-Northerners and renominated AbdulRazaq, who is from Ilorin West in Kwara Central; the SDP nominated Hakeem Lawal from Ilorin East in the central district as well.
All Progressives Congress The year prior to the APC primaries were beset by party infighting between two different party factions, one backed by ministers Lai Mohammed and Gbemisola Ruqayyah Saraki while the other was supported by incumbent Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. The two factions held two separate parallel party congresses in late 2021 but as AbdulRazaq is a serving governor, his faction's congress was recognized as legitimate by the national party. In the wake of the decision, a large number of Mohammed-Saraki faction supporters left the APC (mainly joining the Social Democratic Party). Although neither Mohammed nor Saraki defected, analysts state that the defections have the potential to hurt the APC in the general election. Another point of contention were the calls from Kwara North groups for the governorship to be zoned to their region; to combat those demands, prominent northern APC members like House of Assembly Speaker Yakubu Danladi-Salihu and Senator Suleiman Sadiq Umar held events to back AbdulRazaq's re-election bid.
On the primary date, AbdulRazaq was the sole candidate and won the nomination unanimously. In his acceptance speech, AbdulRazaq thanked delegates and the state at-large while pledging to continue the work of his administration.
Nominated AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq: Governor (2019–present) Running mate—Kayode Alabi: Deputy Governor (2019–present)
Declined Yakubu Danladi-Salihu: House of Assembly member for Ilesha/Gwanara (2019–present) and Speaker of the House of Assembly (2019–present)
Results
People's Democratic Party In December 2021, Kwara PDP Publicity Secretary Tunde Asholu announced that the party had zoned their gubernatorial nomination to Kwara North Senatorial District. A few months later, former Senate President Bukola Saraki (the de facto leader of the Kwara PDP) announced that the party nomination would be further micro-zoned to Edu, Moro, and Pategi LGAs; Saraki also announced that the candidates had agreed to use the consensus method for the gubernatorial primary. The former was controversial as the only Governor to ever come from the Northern district, Mohammed Shaaba Lafiagi, is from Edu and thus micro-zoning to the same area instead of Baruten and Kaiama LGAs was unpopular in those LGAs leading to extensive internal PDP strife; the controversy was compounded by an ethnic element as the Edu-Moro-Pategi area is majority-Nupe while Baruten and Kaiama are majority Baatonu and Bokobaru, respectively. On the other hand, the consensus method was reaffirmed unanimously by the candidates on 13 April 2022 after a meeting with Saraki at his Abuja home.
On the primary date, the three candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi emerging as the party nominee after results showed him winning just over 90% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Abdullahi vowed to win the general election and asked the party to unite around him. On 17 June, Gbenga Peter Makanjuola—former House of Representatives member for Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero—was selected as the deputy gubernatorial nominee.
Nominated Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi: 2019 APC gubernatorial candidate Running mate—Gbenga Peter Makanjuola: former House of Representatives member for Ekiti/Isin/Irepodun/Oke-ero
Eliminated in primary Aliyu Ahman-Pategi: former House of Representatives member for Edu/Moro/Pategi Mohammed Gana Yisa: former Ambassador to Japan and professor
Withdrew M.M. Abubakar: businessman Ndanusa Kawu Adam Abubakar S. Ahmad Ibrahim Bio: former Minister of Transportation (2008–2010), former House of Assembly member, and former Speaker of the House of Assembly Mohammed Ajia Ibrahim: 2019 PDP gubernatorial candidate and former police officer (to run for MHR for Ilorin West/Asa) Baba Idris Abubakar M. Shamaki
Declined Bolaji Abdullahi: 2019 PDP gubernatorial candidate; former Minister of Sports (2012–2014); former Minister of Youth Development (2011–2012); and former Commissioner of Education, Science and Technology (2007–2011) Ali Ahmad: former House of Assembly member for Ilorin South (2015–2019), former Speaker of the House of Assembly (2015–2019), 2019 PDP gubernatorial candidate, and former House of Representatives member for Ilorin East/Ilorin South (2011–2015) Aisha Ahman-Pategi: former Commissioner for Special Duties (2019–2020) and former Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs (2020) Abdullah Alikinla: former commissioner Razaq Atunwa: former House of Representatives member for Asa/Ilorin West (2015–2019), 2019 PDP gubernatorial nominee, former House of Assembly member for Owode/Onire (2011–2015), former Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly (2011–2015), and former commissioner (2005–2011) Ladi Hassan: 2019 PDP gubernatorial candidate, former Executive Secretary of the Federal Capital Development Authority, and former Commissioner for Health Saka Isau: 2019 PDP gubernatorial candidate, former state Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, and former Secretary to the State Government Abdulwahab Issa: former House of Representatives member for Ilorin East/Ilorin South (2007–2011), former Ilorin South Local Government Chairman (2004–2007), and former Ilorin East Local Government Chairman (1996–1997)
Results
Social Democratic Party In early 2022, large groups of APC members defected to the SDP after the APC internal party crisis. After welcoming the new members, Kwara SDP leadership expressed confidence over the party's prospects in the general election; however as the primary neared, zoning became an internal issue as Kwara North groups demanded the nomination be zoned to the North. Further strife between longtime party members and new APC defectors descended into a full-blown party crisis as two separate state congresses were held in April 2022.
The national SDP set its gubernatorial expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and its nomination form price at ₦15 million with a 50% discount for youth and free forms for women and candidates with disabilities while scheduling the primary for 25 May.
On the initial primary date, one major candidate (House member Abdulganiyu Saka Cook Olododo) withdrew while the other six candidates continued to an indirect primary in Ilorin ending in Hakeem Lawal winning after announced results showed Lawal winning 54% of the delegates' votes. However, runner-up Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem challenged the results to the national party which agreed to hold a rerun primary on 30 May. The rerun was also won by Lawal, with his 77% of the vote winning the nomination a second time. Abdulraheem continued to protest before leaving the party to obtain the NNPP nomination. In mid-July, Joshua Olayinka Olakunle—a pastor from Ora, Ifelodun LGA—was announced as Lawal's running mate.
Nominated Hakeem Lawal: 2019 APC gubernatorial candidate and son of former Governor Mohammed Alabi Lawal Running mate—Joshua Olayinka Olakunle: pastor and former lecturer
Eliminated in primary Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem: former Vice Chancellor of the University of Ilorin (defected after the primary to successfully run in the NNPP gubernatorial primary) Tajudeen Abdulkadir Audu: 2019 APC gubernatorial candidate Sunday Babalola: engineer Kale Belgore: former aide to Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and brother of politician Dele Belgore Khaleel Bolaji: former commissioner
Withdrew Abdulganiyu Saka Cook Olododo: House of Representatives member for Ilorin East/Ilorin South (to run for re-election as MHR for Ilorin East/Ilorin South)
Results
Minor parties
Dauda Salman Magaji (Action Alliance) Running mate: Bandipo Victoria Yemisi