The 1992 presidential campaign of George H. W. Bush was an unsuccessful re-election campaign for 1992 United States presidential election by incumbent president George H. W. Bush, who had taken office on January 20, 1989. Bush and incumbent vice president Dan Quayle were defeated by Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton and vice presidential nominee Al Gore. Bush, a Republican president and former vice president under Ronald Reagan, launched his presidential bid on October 11, 1991, and secured nomination for his re-election on August 20, 1992. He was challenged in the Republican primaries by former White House Communications Director Pat Buchanan, who received less than one percent of the delegates in the Republican National Convention.
Bush launched his successful campaign in 1988, becoming the 41st president in January 1989. With a coalition victory in the Persian Gulf War and high approval ratings, Bush's re-election initially looked likely; however, he was criticized by many conservatives for breaking his pledge of never raising taxes. He felt the economy would be the deciding factor in the election and could even overshadow the success of Operation Desert Storm. Early counting of ballots in the New Hampshire primary favored Buchanan, but the final results gave a victory to Bush. It was a strong showing by Buchanan, as his score nearly matched Eugene McCarthy's protest vote against Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. During the convention, it was speculated that Bush might drop Quayle from the ticket due to his relatively low polling performance, but Bush was unwilling, asserting that removing his 1988 choice from the 1992 ticket would be an implicit admission that choosing Quayle had been a mistake.
Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Bill Clinton, the governor of Arkansas as their presidential nominee, with Al Gore, a senator from Tennessee, as his running mate. Texas billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate; at one point Perot had a clear lead over the major-party candidates in the polls. During the campaign, Bush emphasized his foreign policy success, but as the economy went into a recession, his popularity fell. He conducted a whistle stop tour on a train named Spirit of America and participated in a series of three presidential debates. Clinton won the election, taking 43 percent of the popular vote and 370 electoral votes, while Bush won 37.5 percent of the popular vote and 168 electoral votes. Perot won 19% of the popular vote, one of the highest totals for a third-party candidate in U.S. history, but no electoral votes. Bush left office with a 56% approval rating and 37% disapproval rating.
Had Bush been re-elected, he would have been the second U.S. president to be elected both offices of vice president and president twice, after Richard Nixon in 1972.
Background
Bush was born in Milton, Massachusetts, in 1924. In 1964, he ran for the United States Senate from Texas and won the Republican nomination, but lost the election by 56% to 44%. He was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas's 7th congressional district in 1966. He served as ambassador to the United Nations under the Nixon Administration—his first major diplomatic experience with the Soviet Union and China. He ran in the 1980 Republican Party presidential primaries against Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, and many other candidates. He won a close victory in the Iowa caucus with 31.5% to Reagan's 29.4%, but ended up losing many contests to Reagan, and dropped out of the race. Reagan chose Bush to run as the Republican nominee for vice president. Bush accepted the position and threw himself into campaigning for the Reagan-Bush ticket. They won the 1980 presidential election in a landslide victory against the incumbent President Jimmy Carter. As vice president, Bush maintained a low profile by avoiding decision-making and not criticizing the president publicly. Reagan won his re-election in 1984 in a landslide victory against Walter Mondale, winning 49 of 50 states with Bush re-elected as vice president.
In 1987, Bush announced his presidential campaign led by Reagan staffer Lee Atwater. Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, and Pat Robertson challenged him in the primaries. After he won South Carolina, and 16 of 17 states on Super Tuesday, his competitors dropped out of the race. Bush also pledged that he would not raise taxes, stating: "read my lips: no new taxes". Bush selected Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate. They won the 1988 presidential election against Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, and Bush became the first incumbent vice president to be elected president since Martin Van Buren in 1836. Bush was inaugurated on January 20, 1989, with an approval rating of 51%.
During his term, Bush signed various bilateral treaties between the United States and the Soviet Union, like START I and START II, on the limitation of strategic offensive arms and nuclear weapons. With the fall of Berlin Wall in late 1989, the Bush administration facilitated reunification of Germany on terms favorable to the United States and a democratic Germany. During the same time, the United States invaded Panama to depose Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega. With Soviet regime's position weakening on all fronts, the Soviet Union dissolved in late 1991, thus ending the Cold War. Bush achieved an approval rating of 89% in March 1991, after the United States' and coalition victory in Persian Gulf.
However, as the economy went into a recession in 1990, the unemployment rate rose from 5.9% in 1989 to a high of 7.8% in mid-1991 and the debt percentage of total gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 39.4% in 1989 to almost 46.8% in 1992. As the recession continued, people became increasingly worried about the changing economic situation of the nation. In September 1990, Bush and congressional Democrats announced a compromise to cut funding for mandatory and discretionary programs while also raising revenue, partly through a higher gas tax. The compromise included a "pay as you go" provision that required that new programs be paid for at the time of implementation. Conservatives opposed the bill, strongly against any form of tax increase. Bush's decision to sign the bill damaged his standing with conservatives and the public as he broke his pledge to never to raise taxes.
Gaining the nomination
Preparing for a run In early 1991, Bush once considered not running for re-election, asserting he seemed not to have an "ounce of energy to manage a massive project". With the end of the Persian Gulf war in March 1991, Bush had very high approval ratings, some even approaching 90%. But by 1992, many conservative Republicans' support of Bush had waned for a variety of reasons, including raising taxes and cutting defense spending. Americans were less concerned with his foreign policy successes than the nation's changing economic situation. Bush was not impressed by the polls' prediction that he would win re-election. He felt the economy would be the deciding factor in the election and could even overshadow the success of Operation Desert Storm. While 71% of the population viewed Bush's handling of foreign policy positively, only 21% approved of his handling of domestic issues. Yet, while addressing a rally in Texas on February 12, 1992, he announced his re-election bid and said:
After the success of the Gulf War, Bush's re-election was considered highly likely. Several high-profile Democratic Party candidates, like Mario Cuomo and Jesse Jackson, refused to seek the Democratic nomination. The media gave the Democratic Party little chance of winning the presidency. Most Republicans continued to endorse Bush as their nominee. Ron Paul, the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, had planned to run against the president as a Republican, but dropped out shortly after former White House communication director Pat Buchanan's entry in the Republican primaries. In 1990, determined to undercut Bush, Buchanan published a newsletter called Patrick J. Buchanan: From the Right; it sent subscribers a bumper sticker reading: "Read Our Lips! No new taxes".
Vice-presidential selection
Throughout Bush's presidency, there existed widespread speculation about Bush potentially replacing Quayle as his running-mate in his expected 1992 reelection. As early as 1989, Quayle's poor public standing was noted by the Washington Post, which conducted a poll that found voters did not consider him fit to take over the presidency by a 52 to 38 percent margin. In 1990, The New York Times reported that there was a movement to have Quayle replaced on the Republican ticket in 1992. The choice of running mate was considered to be particularly important given Bush's age and widely reported health issues.
Despite Bush's misgivings with the Vice President, he was reluctant to drop Quayle in the absence of him voluntarily stepping aside. Bush asserted that removing his 1988 choice from the 1992 ticket would be an implicit admission that choosing Quayle had been a mistake. In the aftermath of criticism over raising taxes, Bush had no appetite for another controversial political moment. Nevertheless, there were reports that Bush did indeed consult with top confidantes about replacing Quayle on at least two occasions, including in a conversation with Chief of Staff James Baker.
The May 1991 issue of Time magazine features a cover story on the push to replace Quayle on the ticket. The names mentioned were:
Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Pete Wilson, Governor of California Nancy Kassebaum, Senator from Kansas Carroll Campbell, Governor of South Carolina
Bush's son George W. Bush urged him to replace Quayle with Cheney, and his son Jeb Bush also urged him to replace Quayle because of his relatively low polling performance. Former Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford also urged Quayle's removal from the Republican ticket.
Republican presidential primaries
Primaries were held for all 50 states and the District of Columbia from February 18 to June 9, 1992. In addition to Buchanan; David Duke, Pat Paulsen, Harold Stassen and Jack Fellure had also challenged Bush. Buchanan's candidacy relied heavily on a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, as a result, Bush made New Hampshire a focal point in his re-election bid. However, New Hampshire remained a pivotal base for Buchanan's primary campaign. Buchanan explained the reason for running against incumbent President Bush:
Buchanan ran on a platform of immigration reduction and social conservatism, including opposition to multiculturalism, abortion, and gay rights. He also encouraged isolationism, causing Bush to stop talking about foreign policy almost entirely. Even after challenging an incumbent president in the primaries, his campaign managed to raise $14,521,899 () from donations. On February 5, an exaggerated account suggesting Bush was unfamiliar with barcode readers made him look out of touch. Early counting of ballots in the New Hampshire primary favored Buchanan, but the final results gave a victory to Bush with 53% of the votes, followed by Buchanan with 38% of the vote. It was a strong showing by Buchanan as Bush got fewer votes than expected. Buchanan's score nearly matched Eugene McCarthy's protest vote against Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.