The 2004 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Vermont is the home state of United States presidential candidate and anti-war advocate Howard Dean, its former governor. Vermont voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush of Texas. Kerry received 58.94% of the vote to Bush's 38.80%, a Democratic victory margin of 20.14%.2004 Presidential General Election Results – Vermont

Kerry also swept 13 of the state's 14 counties, breaking 60% in 6 of them. Kerry's strongest county was Windham County, which he won with 66.43% of the vote to Bush's 31.22%. Only one county voted for Bush, sparsely populated bellwether Essex County in the far northeast of the state, which Bush won with 54.17% of the vote. A state with strong liberal and anti-war tendencies, Vermont registered as the third most Democratic state in the nation in the 2004 election, its results making the state about 23% more Democratic than the nation. It also had the strongest Democratic swing of any state in the nation against Bush compared to the 2000 result. Even as Bush increased his nationwide popular vote support from a 0.52% loss to Al Gore in 2000 to a 2.46% nationwide victory in 2004, Vermont swung 10.20% against Bush, representing the strongest such swing and making the state trend 13.18% Democratic relative to the nation. This portended the future trend of the state toward dominance by the Democratic Party, as Democrat Barack Obama would carry the state in a 67-30 landslide four years later in 2008 and again in 2012.

Kerry, from neighboring Massachusetts, was the first Northern Democrat ever to carry Vermont. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though Vermont is a northern state. This was the first time a Republican had won the national popular vote without carrying Vermont (and so far the only time a Republican has done so with a majority of the popular vote). Bush thus became the first-ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Caledonia, Orange, or Orleans Counties. Bush became the first Republican to ever win two terms (and so far the only Republican candidate to win consecutive presidential elections) without ever carrying the state.

Democratic primary

Primary date: March 2, 2004 2004 Vermont Democratic presidential primary Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates Howard Dean44,39353.6%9 John Kerry 26,171 31.6% 6 Dennis Kucinich 3,396 4.1% 0 Wesley Clark 2,749 3.3% 0 Others 1,059 1.3% 0 Total - 100.00% 28

Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportCook Political ReportResearch 2000Zogby InternationalWashington PostWashington DispatchWashington TimesThe New York TimesCNNNewsweekAssociated PressRasmussen Reports

Results

By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Addison 11,147 60.00% 7,077 38.09% 355 1.91% 4,070 21.91% 18,579 Bennington 11,069 58.06% 7,616 39.95% 380 1.99% 3,453 18.11% 19,065 Caledonia 7,106 50.00% 6,765 47.60% 340 2.39% 341 2.40% 14,211 Chittenden 49,369 63.54% 26,422 34.01% 1,905 2.45% 22,947 29.53% 77,696 Essex 1,276 43.45% 1,591 54.17% 70 2.38% -315 -10.72% 2,937 Franklin 10,598 53.20% 8,936 44.86% 386 1.95% 1,662 8.34% 19,920 Grand Isle 2,246 55.09% 1,754 43.02% 77 1.89% 492 12.07% 4,077 Lamoille 7,636 62.69% 4,260 34.97% 285 2.34% 3,376 27.72% 12,181 Orange 8,159 54.78% 6,421 43.11% 315 2.12% 1,738 11.67% 14,895 Orleans 6,330 51.71% 5,666 46.28% 246 2.01% 664 5.43% 12,242 Rutland 15,904 51.34% 14,440 46.62% 631 2.03% 1,464 4.72% 30,975 Washington 19,177 60.98% 11,461 36.44% 810 2.58% 7,716 24.54% 31,448 Windham 15,489 66.43% 7,280 31.22% 547 2.35% 8,209 35.21% 23,316 Windsor 18,561 60.33% 11,491 37.35% 715 2.33% 7,070 22.98% 30,767Totals184,06758.94%121,18038.80%7,0622.26%62,88720.14%312,309

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Caledonia (largest municipality: St. Johnsbury) Orange (largest municipality: Randolph) Orleans (largest municipality: Derby)

By congressional district Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results. District Bush Kerry RepresentativeAt-large 38.8% 58.9%Bernie Sanders

See also United States presidential elections in Vermont

Notes

References