Beginning with the onset of the Tigray war in November 2020, acute food shortages leading to death and starvation became widespread in northern Ethiopia, and the Tigray, Afar and Amhara Regions in particular. , there are 13 million people facing acute food insecurity, and an estimated 150,000–200,000 had died of starvation by March 2022. In the Tigray Region alone, 89% of people are in need of food aid, with those facing severe hunger reaching up to 47%. In a report published in June 2021, over 350,000 people were already experiencing catastrophic famine conditions (IPC Phase 5). It is the worst famine to happen in East Africa since 2011–2012.

In addition to the Tigray war, which caused mass displacement and loss of harvests, it was exacerbated by then-ongoing drought and locust infestations in the region. Both during and after the war, the famine has been characterized by repeated disruptions to the distribution of humanitarian aid, including through blockades by the Ethiopian federal government, looting by various armed actors, the stymieing of grain shipments caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the dismantling of USAID by the second Trump administration.

As reported by The Economist, the federal Ethiopian government was "deliberately holding back food in an effort to starve" the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF); a claim disputed by the Ethiopian government in late January. On 10 February 2021, Abera Tola, head of Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS), described displaced people "reach[ing] camps in Tigrayan towns [being] 'emaciated'" and that "their skin [was] really on their bones." He estimated that "eighty percent" of Tigray was unreachable by humanitarian assistance. In early February 2021, Muferiat Kamil, Ethiopian Minister of Peace, agreed with World Food Programme representatives to allow increased food distribution in Tigray Region. While the situation improved after the March 2022 truce and allowed for humanitarian distribution of food, the lack of rain in the spring of 2022 compounded the already existing food insecurity. The resurgence of fighting after the ceasefire collapsed in August 2022 exacerbated the situation even more; by October, between 400 and 900 a day were dying of starvation.

Impact

In an 8 January meeting of the Tigray Emergency Coordination Center between international aid groups and Transitional Government of Tigray officials in Mekelle, capital of Tigray Region, a regional administrator, Berhane Gebretsadik, estimated that "hundreds of thousands" were at risk of starvation if food aid wasn't increased, and that in Adwa, people were "dying while they [were] sleeping".

A federal official claimed that there was "no starvation in Ethiopia" on 19 January 2021, according to The Economist.

On 22 January 2021, The Economist described estimates by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) as Tigray being "probably one step from famine" and quoted a "Western diplomat" estimating, "We could have a million dead there in a couple of months".

In early February 2021, the FEWS NET classified the level of starvation in Tigray Region under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) criteria as "Emergency (Phase 4)" in the central areas and as "Crisis (Phase 3)" in the rest of Tigray Region apart from Western Tigray. FEWS NET saw the armed conflict and access constraints, low levels of economic activity and income-earning, and "significant disruption to market activity" as being key factors for phase 4 level acute food security to continue in central and eastern Tigray through to May 2021.

According to Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE), prior to the Eritrean refugees in the Shimelba and Hitsats refugee camps being forced to return to Eritrea, they were so hungry that they were "forced to eat grass and roots".

On 10 February 2021, Abera Tola, head of Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS), stated,

Abraha Desta, head of the opposition political party Arena Tigray and head of the Bureau of Social Affairs of the Transitional Government of Tigray, stated that "eighty percent" of Tigray was unreachable for humanitarian assistance. He predicted that the number of deaths by starvation could mount to "tens of thousands" within two months.

On 2 July 2021, the United Nations Security Council discussed the issue and told that more than 400,000 people were being affected by food insecurity and that 33,000 children were severely malnourished. The report also stated that 1.8 million people were on the brink of famine.

By September 2022, UNICEF reported that around 29.7 million people in Ethiopia were in need of humanitarian assistance.

In April 2024, the FEWS NET stated that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes that were occurring were expected to persist into September, at the time of the next harvest. High levels of food aid sharing resulted in lower food portions per household despite humanitarians increasing their range of aid, and many households had to resort to sending children to beg, selling all their livestock in already poor condition, and migrating to adjacent nations as well as Saudi Arabia.

Death counts

Transitional government of Tigray Abraha stated on 25 January 2021 that reports had been received of 10 people who had died from starvation in Gulomahda woreda, which in the 2007 census had 84,236 inhabitants; and 3 starvation deaths in Adwa, which had 40,500 residents in the 2007 census. The mortality rate for a phase 5 famine is 2 deaths per 10,000 inhabitants per day.

In June 2021, a Tigray regional health official stated that the district administrator of Mai Kinetal in Indafelasi, Berhe Desta Gebremariam, had reported 125 deaths by starvation, describing people as "falling like leaves", as well 315 other deaths, 558 people who had been victims of sexual violence, and the looting of 5,000 homes.

On 16 November 2021, Dr Hagos Godefay, the former head of the health bureau in the pre-conflict Tigrayan government, announced that research had confirmed that at least 186 children under the age of 5 had died in Tigray due to starvation between late June and October 2021.

United Nations OCHA On 15 April 2021, Mark Lowcock of OCHA said that four internally displaced people in Tigray Region were known to have died of hunger that week, and 150 people had died of hunger in Ofla, Tigray.

On 16 June 2022, the specialised digital service of OCHA, ReliefWeb, released a statement on the famine situation affecting the entirety of the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia. The statement announced that 'one person is likely dying from hunger every 48 seconds in the region.

Other estimates On 14 October 2021, Jan Nyssen of Ghent University estimated that from 425 to 1201 people were dying of starvation per day in Tigray Region.

Causes

Civil society On 8 February 2021, the boards of the Tigrai Development Association (TDA) and the Relief Society of Tigray (REST), two local NGOs trusted by Tigrayans, were dissolved by federal authorities.

Economic Ethiopia had an average inflation rate of 26% in 2021 and 30% in 2022, something that was largely driven by a rise in food prices; in February 2023, the overall inflation rate reached 32%, and Ethiopia continued to experience high inflation by September 2023, with commonly purchased food items becoming more expensive.

Environmental

Drought

Locust swarms

Looting and removal of basic services All parties to the conflict have been accused by USAID of looting aid shipments.

Looting by the TPLF/TDF On 31 August 2021, USAID's mission director in Ethiopia, Sean Jones said: "We do have proof that several of our warehouses have been looted and completely emptied in the areas, particularly in Amhara, where TPLF soldiers have gone into, I do believe that the TPLF has been very opportunistic," in a televised interview with state broadcaster EBC in Addis Ababa. On 25 August 2022, the World Food Programme accused the TPLF of stealing 570,000 liters of fuel meant to transport humanitarian aid.

In March 2022, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission stated that the TDF had "carried out widespread and organized pillaging, looting and destruction of government administration facilities, public service facilities" in the Afar and Amhara regions.

Looting by federal Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara forces Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International described Tigrayans being targeted with impunity, both by military and civilian groups:

Anti-Tigrayan forces engaged in what HRW and Amnesty described as "pillag[ing]", with "schools, courts, churches, and health centers", in addition to civilian houses, being subject to looting. Amhara and Eritrean forces also took harvests, livestock and medicine from Tigrayan farmers, who were threatened with violence if they did not comply; these actions caused the looted areas to face "extreme starvation" by June 2021. Multiple witnesses, from separate villages, gave similar descriptions of Amhara militias and security forces "waiting for farmers to collect or harvest [sorghum crops] before stealing [them]." A witness to the Axum massacre stated that the EDF "burned crops […] forced farmers and priests to slaughter their own animals […] stole medicine from health facilities and destroyed the infrastructure." Reports of Eritrean looting continued into late 2022, with allegations that the EDF was seizing food and other materials from Tigrayan homes, in violation of the November 2022 peace agreement.

Role of international weapons sales An investigation revealed in November 2021 that the UAE opened an air bridge to provide extensive military support to the Ethiopian government, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians and displaced millions. More than 90 flights were operated between Sweihan Base, Abu Dhabi, and Harar Meda Base, south of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, between September and October 2021. The UAE took support of two private shipping companies, including one Spanish and one Ethiopian firm, to carry out this extensive operation. The satellite images also showed a Chinese-made Wing Loong drone at the Ethiopian airport.

On 27 November 2021, The Economist reported that Turkey, Iran, Israel and the UAE were all selling weapons to Ethiopia, while relations soured between the US and Ethiopia. The UAE was accused of flying drones. The Emirates had also pledged billions in aid. The help from such autocratic powers escalated the war in Tigray, causing humanitarian crisis for tens of millions of Ethiopians.

Food aid distribution On 25 January 2021, Abraha Desta stated that many people were displaced after having their property looted and that food was available, but there was a distribution problem, since drivers were afraid. He stated that foreign aid organisations were unable to leave the capital Mekelle due to security concerns for convoys. He described the situation as "'unprecedented in its history', and that 4.5 million people were in need of emergency food assistance". The Economist described the access blocks as including the initial federal government authorisation, authorisations from neighbouring regional governments, and blocks by local armed forces "citing security" or fears about food being provided to the TPLF.

Muferiat Kamil, Ethiopian Minister of Peace, agreed with World Food Programme representatives to "scale up" food distribution in Tigray Region, authorising 25 international staff for access, while another 49 awaited approval. On 12 February, a total of 53 international staff of United Nations agencies and NGOs had received approval to enter Tigray Region.

Blockade of aid deliveries