Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
State or district PVI 2016 result 2020 result CookInside Elections Sabato Politico RealClearPoliticsNiskanen CenterNiskanen Center Electoral Map, 270toWin, September 15, 2020. CNN CBS News 270toWin ABC News NPR NBC News DDHQ FiveThirtyEight Alabama 9 R+14 +27.73% R +25.46% R
| Alaska 3 R+9 +14.73% R +10.06% R
| Arizona 11 R+5 +3.50% R +0.31% D(flip)
| Arkansas 6 R+15 +26.92% R +27.62% R
| California 55 D+12 +30.11% D +29.16% D
| Colorado 9 D+1 +4.91% D +13.50% D
| Connecticut 7 D+6 +13.64% D +20.07% D
| Delaware 3 D+6 +11.37% D +18.97% D
| District of Columbia 3 D+41 +86.78% D +86.75% D
| Florida 29 R+2 +1.20% R(flip) +3.36% R
| Georgia 16 R+5 +5.13% R +0.24% D(flip)
| Hawaii 4 D+18 +32.18% D +29.46% D
| Idaho 4 R+19 +31.77% R +30.77% R
| Illinois 20 D+7 +17.06% D +16.99% D
| Indiana 11 R+9 +19.17% R +16.06% R
| Iowa 6 R+3 +9.41% R(flip) +8.20% R
| Kansas 6 R+13 +20.60% R +14.65% R
| Kentucky 8 R+15 +29.84% R +25.94% R
| Louisiana 8 R+11 +19.64% R +18.61% R
| 2 D+3 +2.96% D +9.07% D
| 1 D+8 +14.81% D +23.09% D
| 1 R+2 +10.29% R(flip) +7.44% R
| Maryland 10 D+12 +26.42% D +33.21% D
| Massachusetts 11 D+12 +27.20% D +33.46% D
| Michigan 16 D+1 +0.23% R(flip) +2.78% D(flip)
| Minnesota 10 D+1 +1.52% D +7.11% D
| Mississippi 6 R+9 +17.83% R +16.55% R
| Missouri 10 R+9 +18.64% R +15.39% R
| Montana 3 R+11 +20.42% R +16.37% R
| 2 R+14 +25.05% R +19.06% R
| 1 R+11 +20.72% R +14.92% R
| 1 R+4 +2.24% R +6.50% D(flip)
| 1 R+27 +54.19% R +53.02% R
| Nevada 6 D+1 +2.42% D +2.39% D
| New Hampshire 4 D+1 +0.37% D +7.35% D
| New Jersey 14 D+7 +14.10% D +15.94% D
| New Mexico 5 D+3 +8.21% D +10.79% D
| New York 29 D+11 +22.49% D +23.11% D
| North Carolina 15 R+3 +3.66% R +1.35% R
| North Dakota 3 R+16 +35.73% R +33.34% R
| Ohio 18 R+3 +8.13% R(flip) +8.03% R
| Oklahoma 7 R+20 +36.39% R +33.09% R
| Oregon 7 D+5 +10.98% D +16.09% D
| Pennsylvania 20 +0.72% R(flip) +1.16% D(flip)
| Rhode Island 4 D+10 +15.51% D +20.77% D
| South Carolina 9 R+8 +14.27% R +11.68% R
|class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap South Dakota 3 R+14 +29.79% R +26.16% R
| Tennessee 11 R+14 +26.01% R +23.21% R
| Texas 38 R+8 +8.99% R +5.58% R
| Utah 6 R+20 +18.08% R +20.48% R |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap |class=nowrap
| Vermont 3 D+15 +26.41% D +35.41% D
| Virginia 13 D+1 +5.32% D +10.11% D
| Washington 12 D+7 +15.71% D +19.20% D
| West Virginia 5 R+19 +42.07% R +38.93% R
| Wisconsin 10 +0.77% R(flip) +0.63% D(flip)
| Wyoming 3 R+25 +46.29% R +43.38% R
| Overall 538 D: 232R: 306 D: 306 R: 232 | | D: 290R: 125Tossup: 123 | | D: 350R: 125Tossup: 63 | | D: 321R: 217Tossup: 0 | | D: 279R: 163Tossup: 96 | | D: 216 R: 125Tossup: 197 | | D: 318R: 123Tossup: 97 | | D: 279R: 163Tossup: 96 | | D: 334R: 164Tossup: 40 | | D: 279R: 163Tossup: 96 | | D: 279R: 163Tossup: 96 | | D: 321R: 125Tossup: 92 | | D: 279R: 125Tossup: 134 | | D: 279R: 125Tossup: 134 | | D: 308R: 163Tossup: 67 | | D: 334R: 169Tossup: 35
Notes
References
Further reading
2021 special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics on "Forecasting the 2020 US Elections."
External links General Elections, 3 November 2020, Reports and findings from the OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission