In the run-up to the 2022 Hungarian general election, the parliamentary opposition to the governing Fidesz–KDNP alliance, contesting the election collectively as United for Hungary, held a two-round primary election to select the coalition's prime-ministerial candidate. The first round was held from 18-28 September 2021; the second from 10-16 October 2021.Közös miniszterelnök-jelöltet állítanak az ellenzéki pártok 2022-re, telex.hu (in Hungarian)Opposition Parties Vow to Settle on Joint PM Candidate by October 2021, hungarytoday.hu United for Hungary also used the primary to select unity candidates to contest single-member districts.Az ellenzék közösen indul, mind a 106 választókerületben közös jelöltet indít a Fidesz ellen 2022-ben, 444.hu (in Hungarian) Non-partisan candidate Péter Márki-Zay won the prime-ministerial primary.
Background The agreement to hold the primary for the prime minister candidate was reached on 15 November 2020 between the Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP – Hungary's Green Party, Momentum Movement, Hungarian Socialist Party, and Dialogue for Hungary. These parties were supported by most opposition voters in the 2018 Hungarian parliamentary election, having received 46.47% of the party list vote. On 20 December 2020, they also agreed on presenting a single party list for the election.Megszületett a teljes ellenzéki összefogás 2022-re index.hu (in Hungarian) A document about the foundations of the common election manifesto was signed by the party leaders on 5 January 2021.Hungarian opposition parties sign symbolic agreement on future government, intellinews.com
Electoral process
Primaries were to be held for both the prime ministerial candidate and the candidates for the National Assembly in all 106 districts. A prime ministerial candidate had to provide 20,000 signatures in support by 6 September, while a constituency candidate had to provide 400. Independents and candidates of affiliated parties (New World People's Party, Hungarian Liberal Party and New Start) could participate, but they had to sign an agreement with one of the six organizing parties that they would join their parliamentary group if elected.
Constituency candidates were to be selected in a single round of first-past-the-post voting, while the prime ministerial candidate was to be chosen in the second round of voting, to which at most three candidates could qualify.Hivatalos az ellenzéki előválasztás menetrendje, online is lehet majd szavazni, telex.hu (in Hungarian) The first round of voting was to be held between 18 and 26 September, and the second between 10 and 16 October, with voting both online and in-person. Any eligible voter, and underage voters who would be 18 years old by the date of the parliamentary election, could vote in the primaries.Eldőlt: Civilek is indulhatnak, és 18 éven aluliak is szavazhatnak az ellenzéki előválasztáson telex.hu (in Hungarian)
Prime minister candidates Candidates (second round) Declared candidates CandidateDate of birthPartyBackgroundPolitical viewsReferenceKlára Dobrev(age 49)Democratic Coalition–Hungarian Liberal Party Vice President of the European Parliament(2019–present) MEP on the Democratic Coalition list (2019–present) Wife of former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány Social liberalism(age 49)Independentendorsed by New World People's Party in the firstround and Momentum Movement in the second round Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely(2018–present) Leader of the Everybody's Hungary Movement(2018–present)Liberal conservatismMárki-Zay Péter vállalná a miniszterelnök-jelöltséget 2022-ben, hvg.hu (in Hungarian)
Withdrawn and eliminated candidates
Withdrawn and eliminated candidates CandidateDate of birthPartyBackgroundPolitical viewsDate of withdrawalEndorsementReferenceGergely Karácsony(age 46)Dialogue for Hungary–Hungarian Socialist Party–LMP – Hungary's Green Party Co-leader of Dialogue for Hungary (2014–) Mayor of Budapest (2019–present) Former Mayor of Zugló (2014–2019) Former member of the National Assembly (2010–2014) Leader of the 99 Movement (2021)Green politicsSocial democracy8 October 2021Péter Márki-ZayKarácsony Gergely elindul miniszterelnök-jelöltként az előválasztáson, index.hu (in Hungarian)Karácsony Gergely visszalép és beáll Márki-Zay Péter mögé, index.hu (in Hungarian)András Fekete-Győr(age 32)Momentum Movement Leader of Momentum Movement (2017–2021)CentrismLiberalismeliminated in the first roundPéter Márki-ZayFekete-Győr miniszterelnök-jelölt lesz?, hvg.hu (in Hungarian)Döntött a Momentum: Márki-Zay Pétert támogatják, index.hu (in Hungarian)Péter Jakab(age 41)Jobbik Leader of Jobbik (2020–) Member of the National Assembly (2018–present)PopulismNational conservatismeliminated in the first roundNoneJózsef Pálinkás(age 68)New World People's Party President of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (2008–2014) Minister of Education (2001–2002) Member of the National Assembly (2006–2008) Leader of the New World People's Party (2020–)Liberal conservatismcould not collect20,000 signaturesPéter Márki-Zay Pálinkás József: Szívesen lennék az ellenzék miniszterelnök-jelöltje, 24.hu (in Hungarian)Pálinkás Józsefnek nem jött össze a 20 ezer aláírás az előválasztáshoz, Márki-Zay viszont 30 ezernél többet gyűjtött, Telex.hu (in Hungarian) 12 December 1989 (age 31)Cut the Taxes by 75% Party Leader of Cut the Taxes by 75% Party (2019–present)Economic liberalismLibertarianism31 August 2021None
Opinion polls First round polling
Fieldwork datePolling firmSamplesize Dobrev Fekete-Győr Jakab Karácsony Márki-Zay Others No answer LeadSeptember 2021Publicus1198284123123 2 -3September 2021Publicus612302113111 15 -1September 2021PegaPoll19.500313312112 - -TieAugust 2021Publicus100929323 344 - -5August 2021Civitas1001 32523161111 -9July 2021Pulzus1000 19314 199 - -TieJuly 2021Závecz Research1200271228245 - -1June 2021KutatóCentrum1000173472011 - -27June 2021Medián10002684341165 -2May 2021Publicus101132215349 - 82May 2021Civitas1003256302071 -5Apr 2021Publicus1012252193113 - -6Apr 2021Medián10002214403423 - -6Apr 2021Nézőpont1000106 21201222 -1Mar 2021Civitas10071712 3126122 -5Mar 2021Závecz Research10002816 30165 - 52Feb 2021IDEA2000 30829249 - -1Feb 2021Medián10002510323922 - -14Jan 2021Pulzus100019111619158 -TieDec 2020Századvég1000 32 7 17 20 24 - -8
Second round polling
Fieldwork datePolling firmSamplesize Dobrev Karácsony Márki-Zay Others No answer LeadOctober 2021PegaPoll5,00042.657.4 - - -14.837.7 -62.3 - -24.630.530.539.0 - -8.529 Sep - 4 Oct 2021Medián1,000372433 -64
Debates
2021 Hungarian opposition primary debatesDateBroadcasters
DobrevFekete-GyőrJakabKarácsonyMárki-Zay12 SeptemberATVPPPPP18 SeptemberPartizán / N24 SeptemberRTL KlubPPPPP13 OctoberRTL KlubP NINIA P
Endorsements
Constituencies
265 candidates have officially registered until the 15 August deadline to run in one of the 106 constituencies. In 11 districts, only one candidate has registered, while the highest number of competitors was 5, which happened in three places. 258 of them has managed to submit the required 400 signatures until 6 September.Öten visszaléptek, két jelöltnek pedig nem jött össze a négyszáz aláírás az ellenzéki előválasztáson, telex.hu (in Hungarian)
Breakdown of candidates by selected parliamentary group
+ Number of candidates by selected parliamentary groupParty Candidate Endorsed AllDK612889Jobbik553085LMP254873MMM–9090Momentum611576MSZP385593Dialogue125769ÚVNP164965Liberals–5454ÚK–3232Independent9–9
Party list
On 20 December 2020, all six parties agreed on presenting a single party list for the election. The primary election does not directly affect the composition of this list.
Results
First round
+ Turnout 18 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22 Sept 23 Sept 24 Sept 25 Sept 26 Sept 27 Sept 28 Sept OverallIn-person 4,008 62,313 69,336 57,806 63,006 60,298 70,12255,527 34,421 34,192 511,029Online 803 4,642 3,468 3,902 8,315 14,423 19,08020,020 23,124 25,005 122,782Sum4,81166,95572,80461,70871,32174,721 89,20275,54757,54559,197633,811
Prime Minister candidates
Prime minister candidatePartyIn-personOnlineTotal%Klára Dobrev Democratic Coalition–Hungarian Liberal Party196,57219,676216,248Gergely Karácsony Dialogue for Hungary–Hungarian Socialist Party–LMP – Hungary's Green Party128,12341,311169,434Péter Márki-Zay Independent87,56939,059126,628Péter Jakab Jobbik71,23016,14887,378András Fekete-Győr Momentum Movement14,3936,65721,050Total497,887122,851620,738Valid votes620,738Invalid/blank votes13,073Total633,811Source: National Primary Election Office
Constituencies
PartyVotes%Constituency Democratic Coalition163,38726.96%32 Jobbik127,39621.02%29 Hungarian Socialist Party95,57415.77%18 Momentum Movement131,72921.73%15 Dialogue for Hungary39,0066.44%6 LMP – Hungary's Green Party31,5035.20%5 Everybody's Hungary Movement17,4982.89%1Total606,093100%106Valid votes606,093Invalid/blank votes27,718Total633,811Source: National Primary Election Office
Events between the two rounds Klára Dobrev and her party, Democratic Coalition (DK), won the first round with a convincing advantage, obtaining 34.84% and 32 constituencies, respectively. Out of 106 constituences, Dobrev took first place in the prime-ministerial primary in 85; she won by large margins in the countryside, while results in Budapest were more balanced. Despite entering the race as the favorite, Gergely Karácsony came in second place (27.3%) and won few rural constituencies; in Budapest, where he had been elected Lord Mayor in 2019, he fared much better. Overall, he won 15 constituencies. In a major upset, independent candidate Péter Márki-Zay came in the third place (20.4%), qualifying for the second round. Péter Jakab of Jobbik and András Fekete-Győr of Momentum, both established parties, were eliminated.
After preliminary results became available on 29 September, Márki-Zay began negotiating with Karácsony about one of them possibly withdrawing in favor of the other. Márki-Zay argued that Dobrev—as the wife of former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, a highly polarizing political figure—would be incapable of defeating incumbent prime minister Viktor Orbán in the general election. Márki-Zay said he would withdraw in favor of Karácsony if the latter incorporated the adoption of the Euro, accountability for the Fidesz government, and the repeal of Hungary's Fundamental Law into his platform. The same day, Karácsony stated in an interview on the Partizán political podcast that although he would not withdraw, he would appoint Márki-Zay deputy prime minister in his prospective government. Karácsony also doubted that his urban, liberal base could support the more conservative Márki-Zay but agreed with his assessment that Dobrev could not defeat Orbán. Márki-Zay countered that he believed the majority of Jobbik and Momentum voters, whose candidates had been eliminated in the first round, would support his candidacy in the second. He also pointed out that, despite spending orders of magnitude less money than Karácsony, he had achieved "almost the same [first-round] result."
DK politicians, including Gyurcsány, criticized the tactical talks between Márki-Zay and Karácsony and argued it was the electorate's role to decide which candidate was most capable of defeating Orbán. Dobrev said she was not concerning herself with Márki-Zay and Karácsony's debate, stating that "the change of government will depend on whether we will be able to shake up the whole country, as it is not possible to change government only from Budapest. I am working on this right now." Jakab also opposed the negotiations between Karácsony and Márki-Zay, stating he could only support them if the two candidates came together to increase the number of opposition voters. "But if the two of you get together so that the third doesn't win, only wounds will come of it," he added.