2020 VV is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly in diameter. On 20 November 2020, the asteroid had a 4.4% chance of impacting Earth on 12 October 2033 11:43 UT. As of mid-December 2020, the asteroid has a modest 61 day observation arc. The nominal Earth approach is on 17 October 2033 at a distance of , but the line of variations (LOV) is only known with an accuracy of ±22 hours. The line of variations allows the asteroid to come as close as or pass as far away as . With a diameter range of 10–22 meters the asteroid could be as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor.
2020 VV was discovered on 5 November 2020 when it was about from Earth and had a solar elongation of 150 degrees. It has a very low 0.35° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 14,800 km. The asteroid passed Earth on 21 October 2020 at a distance of .
Where Earth will be on a given date is known, but given the short observation arc where precisely the asteroid will be on its orbit in 2033 is not. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause the asteroid to be early, right on time (impact solution), or late.
Impact probabilities are calculated independently by Sentry, NEODyS-2 and ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme. Different models result in slightly different orbit solutions, nominal close approach distances, and impact probabilities. With a long enough observation arc these solutions will converge. In general when the nominal approach is closer to the impact scenario, the odds of impact are greater.
+Line of variation (LOV) and different closest approaches Date and time Nominal closest approach Position uncertainty Impact probabilityon 12 Oct 2033 Reference 12 October 2033 11:43 expired impact scenario ±2.5 hours Sentry 17 October 2033 08:57 none ESA 17 October 2033 09:30 none JPL SBDB 17 October 2033 13:26 none NEODyS-2
The line of variation (risk corridor) for 2033 passed over the northeastern USA, Spain, Saudi Arabia, India, and China.
The greatest chances of impact were listed between 17 and 20 November 2020. On 17 November 2020 the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 4.2% chance (1 in 24) of impact, Sentry listed a 2.8% chance (1 in 36), and NEODyS-2 listed a cumulative 5.9% chance of impact. By 20 November 2020 with a 15-day observation arc NEODyS-2 listed a 4.4% chance (1 in 23) of impact. At the same time, Sentry listed a 1.3% chance (1 in 77) of impact, and the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 1.6% chance (1 in 63).
2020 VV is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object, because the estimated size is significantly smaller than the threshold of about 140 meters for potentially hazardous objects.
+Virtual impactors(61-day arc) Date Impactprobability(1 in) JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU) uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)2056-10-11 00:00 1500 ±100 million km
Notes
References
External links
Table of Asteroids Next Closest Approaches to the Earth Osservatorio Astronomico Sormano Sentry (6 Nov 2020) with impact years ranging from 2027-2118 / 2020 VV entries – hohmanntransfer Asteroid Hazards, Part 3: Finding the Path – YouTube video by the Minor Planet Center (26 August 2015)