2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. Republican congresswoman Julia Letlow and Democratic Tensas Parish police juror Jamie Davis are the nominees for their respective parties. The winner will succeed two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, who was defeated in the primary.

Considered vulnerable to a Republican challenger after he voted to convict President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial, Cassidy received 24.8% of the vote in the May 16 primary behind Letlow's 44.8% and state treasurer John Fleming's 28.3%. Letlow, endorsed by Trump, advanced to a runoff against Fleming on June 27 and won the nomination with 56.9% of the vote.

A Democratic runoff also was held on June 27 between Gary Crockett and Jamie Davis that Davis won. He garnered 79.9% of the vote.

With the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, the race is the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since 2010. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Louisiana since 2008.

Background

Change of electoral system In January 2024, governor Jeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representative Julie Emerson, which eliminated the top-two Louisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections for Congress, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, the Public Service Commission, and the state's Supreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including the Independent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use of runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law will take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since 2010; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in 1978.

Primary challenge to Cassidy Senator Bill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, gained notoriety within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of President Donald Trump. Cassidy denounced the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, accused participants of sedition, and voted to certify the 2020 election results. He was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump for incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment trial, prompting the Republican Party of Louisiana to censure him. During Trump's 2024 campaign, Cassidy publicly opposed his candidacy, citing Trump's four criminal indictments.

Cassidy's stance led analysts to view him as vulnerable to a pro-Trump primary challenge. Early speculation in 2024 included Congressman Clay Higgins, a supporter of Trump, who ultimately declined to run. On January 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Julia Letlow, who officially entered the race two days later.

Republican primary

Candidates Nominee Julia Letlow, U.S. representative from Louisiana's 5th congressional district (2021–present)

Eliminated in runoff John Fleming, state treasurer (2024–present), former U.S. representative from (2009–2017), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016

Eliminated in primary Bill Cassidy, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) Mark Spencer, businessman

Withdrawn Julie Emerson, former state representative from the 39th district (2016–2026) Blake Miguez, state senator from the 22nd district (2024–present) (running for U.S. House; endorsed Letlow) Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Parish councilor (endorsed Letlow) Eric Skrmetta, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission from the 1st district (2009–present) (endorsed Letlow) Sammy Wyatt, healthcare professional (running for LA-05)

Declined Clay Higgins, U.S. representative from (running for re-election; endorsed Letlow)

Endorsements

Fundraising Italics indicated a withdrew, declined, or eliminated candidate. Campaign finance reports as of April 26, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handBill Cassidy (R)$13,325,792$9,446,800$5,516,669John Fleming (R)$11,286,639$9,897,447$1,389,264Julia Letlow (R)$4,398,631$2,785,529$1,613,102Source: Federal Election Commission

First round

Debates and forums 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary first round debates Date Host Moderators Link Participants Participant   Absent   Non-invitee   Invitee Withdrawn Cassidy Fleming Letlow Spencer 1 May 5, 2026 KPEL-FM Moon GriffonJeff Beimfohr FacebookA N

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated BillCassidy JohnFleming JuliaLetlow Other/UndecidedMargin270toWinApril 30 – May 8, 2026May 10, 202620.5%29.0%34.5%16.0%Letlow +5.5%Race to the WHthrough April 30, 2026May 10, 202625.1%24.7%20.5%29.7%Cassidy +0.4%FiftyPlusOnethrough May 7, 2026May 10, 202623.0%24.6%32.1%20.3%Letlow +7.5%Average22.9%26.1%29.0%22.0%Letlow +2.9% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy JohnFleming JuliaLetlow MarkSpencer Other UndecidedQuantus Insights (R)May 6–7, 20261,015 (LV)± 3.0%20%30%42%2%–12%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)May 4–5, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%26%21%32%1%–19%BDPCApril 28–30, 2026600 (LV)–21%21%33%2%–23%Emerson CollegeApril 24–26, 2026500 (LV)± 4.3%21%28%27%2%–22%American Pulse Research & PollingMarch 20–24, 2026455 (LV)± 4.6%21%25%31%––23%Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMarch 13–19, 2026683 (LV)–45%21%34%–––BDPCMarch 16–17, 2026600 (LV)–20%24%29%––27%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)March 11–12, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%26%19%27%1%–27%Public Opinion Strategies (R)March 7–10, 2026500 (LV)–35%21%24%2%–18%BDPCFebruary 21–23, 2026600 (LV)–28%21%21%––30%Quantus Insights (R)February 23–24, 20261,428 (LV)± 2.8%20%34%25%––21%Cor Strategies (R)February 20–24, 2026– (V)–30%17%15%7%7%24%JMC Analytics & PollingFebruary 14–16, 2026645 (LV)± 3.9%22%26%25%1%–26%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy JohnFleming JuliaLetlow BlakeMiguez EricSkrmetta Other Undecided February 13, 2026 Skrmetta withdraws February 3, 2026 Miguez withdraws, runs for Letlow's House seatBDPCJanuary 20–22, 2026600 (LV)–21%14%27%5%–6%27%Public Opinion Strategies (R)January 20–22, 2026600 (LV)–32%16%21%9%1%0%19% January 20, 2026 Letlow enters the raceJMC Analytics & PollingJanuary 12–14, 2026650 (LV)± 3.8%22%23%–––16%39%JMC Analytics & PollingOctober 15–17, 2025610 (LV)± 4.0%23%25%–––17%35%Ragnar Research Partners (R)April 14–16, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%28%–––3%34%JMC Analytics & PollingFebruary 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%29%–6%2%–36%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy ClayHiggins JohnFleming JuliaLetlow BlakeMiguez UndecidedTrafalgar Group (R)March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%24%31%17%20%4%4%28%39%25%–3%5%28%42%25%––5%32%61%–––7%37%–––42%21%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy ClayHiggins JohnFleming GarretGraves EricSkrmetta UndecidedTrafalgar Group (R)August 12–14, 20241,062 (LV)± 2.9%27%36%12%23%2%–36%44%16%–4%––45%22%29%4%–41%––59%––43%57%–––––56%–44%––

Results

Runoff Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 17, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand John Fleming (R)$11,286,639$9,897,447$1,389,264 Julia Letlow (R)$4,398,631$2,785,529$1,613,102Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JohnFleming JuliaLetlow UndecidedQuantus Insights (R)June 23–24, 2026770 (LV)± 3.7%45%48%7%JMC Analytics (R)June 21–22, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%15%BDPCJune 15–16, 2026600 (LV)–38%40%22%Kaplan Strategies (R)May 24–26, 2026850 (LV)± 3.4%37%52%10%Harper Polling (R)May 18–19, 2026457 (LV)± 4.6%35%52%13%JMC Analytics (R)May 18–19, 2026640 (LV)± 3.9%44%45%11% May 16, 2026 Fleming and Letlow advance to runoffQuantus Insights (R)May 6–7, 20261,015 (LV)± 3.0%40%45%15%BDPCApril 28–30, 2026600 (LV)–31%42%27%American Pulse Research & PollingMarch 20–24, 2026455 (LV)± 4.6%34%37%29%BDPCMarch 16–17, 2026600 (LV)–33%34%33%BDPCFebruary 21–23, 2026600 (LV)–36%27%37%Quantus Insights (R)February 23–24, 20261,428 (LV)± 2.8%42%32%26%JMC Analytics (R)February 14–16, 2026645 (LV)± 3.9%40%31%29%

Bill Cassidy vs. Julia Letlow Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy JuliaLetlow UndecidedQuantus Insights (R)May 6–7, 20261,015 (LV)± 3.0%23%63%14%BDPCApril 28–30, 2026600 (LV)–28%51%21%American Pulse Research & PollingMarch 20–24, 2026455 (LV)± 4.6%24%54%22%Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMarch 13–19, 2026683 (LV)–54%46%–BDPCMarch 16–17, 2026600 (LV)–24%50%26%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)March 11–12, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%34%46%20%Public Opinion Strategies (R)March 7–10, 2026500 (LV)–45%43%12%BDPCFebruary 21–23, 2026600 (LV)–34%42%24%Quantus Insights (R)February 23–24, 20261,428 (LV)± 2.8%27%48%25%Public Opinion Strategies (R)January 20–22, 2026600 (LV)–40%46%14%Trafalgar Group (R)March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%33%55%12%

Bill Cassidy vs. John Fleming Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillCassidy JohnFleming UndecidedQuantus Insights (R)May 6–7, 20261,015 (LV)± 3.0%25%55%20%BDPCApril 28–30, 2026600 (LV)–30%47%23%American Pulse Research & PollingMarch 20–24, 2026455 (LV)± 4.6%29%49%22%Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMarch 13–19, 2026683 (LV)–51%49%–BDPCMarch 16–17, 2026600 (LV)–26%49%25%BDPCFebruary 21–23, 2026600 (LV)–32%43%25%Quantus Insights (R)February 23–24, 20261,428 (LV)± 2.8%23%57%20%JMC Analytics & PollingFebruary 14–16, 2026645 (LV)± 3.9%28%48%24%JMC Analytics & PollingJanuary 12–14, 2026650 (LV)± 3.8%26%44%30%JMC Analytics & PollingOctober 15–17, 2025610 (LV)± 4.0%29%40%31%JMC Analytics & PollingFebruary 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%40%33%Trafalgar Group (R)March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%34%51%15%Trafalgar Group (R)August 12–14, 20241,062 (LV)± 2.9%48%52%–

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Jamie Davis, former Tensas Parish police juror and runner-up for Louisiana's 21st House of Representatives district in 2023

Eliminated in runoff Gary Crockett, data scientist and political consultant

Eliminated in primary Nick Albares, nonprofit executive and former aide to Governor John Bel Edwards

Withdrawn Tracie Burke, political consultant Jabarie Walker, former chief of staff for the Housing Authority of New Orleans

Declined John Bel Edwards, former governor of Louisiana (2016–2024) and former minority leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives (2012–2015) from the 72nd district (2008–2015) (endorsed Albares) Mitch Landrieu, former senior advisor to the president for Infrastructure Investment & Jobs (2021–2024), former mayor of New Orleans (2010–2018), former lieutenant governor of Louisiana (2004–2010), former state representative (1988–2004), and brother of former U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (1997–2015) Jay Luneau, state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)

Endorsements

First round Fundraising Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate. Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJamie Davis (D)$325,965$184,143$141,821Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Runoff

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 17, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand Gary Crockett (D)$350,000$32,737$655,124 Jamie Davis (D)$562,283$342,312$219,971Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportOctober 6, 2026Decision Desk HQOctober 2, 2026The EconomistOctober 3, 2026FiftyPlusOneOctober 3, 2026Fox NewsSeptember 22, 2026Inside ElectionsOctober 1, 2026RealClearPoliticsSeptember 24, 2026Sabato's Crystal BallSeptember 22, 2026Silver BulletinOctober 3, 2026Split TicketOctober 2, 2026

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of July 30, 2026CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJulia Letlow (R)$6,210,122$4,783,049$1,427,072Jamie Davis (D)$1,983,548$1,504,444$479,104Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Aggregate polls