Overmatch is a concept in modern military thinking which prizes having overwhelming advantages over an adversary to a more significant margin than in traditional warfare. It is related to military superiority. Overmatch uses a military force's "capabilities or unique tactics" to compel the opposing forces to stop using their own equipment or tactics, as doing so would lead to their own defeat or destruction.Kevin M. Woods and Thomas C. Greenwood (Jan. 9, 2018) Joint Force Quarterly 88 Multidomain Battle: Time for a Campaign of Joint Experimentation Overmatch provides "capabilities for presenting an adversary with multiple, simultaneous dilemmas across domains". By fielding the right mix of capabilities, the commander can present multiple dilemmas to the enemy, thus compelling the enemy to withdraw.Gen. David G. Perkins (Nov 2, 2015) US Naval War College, Lecture of Opportunity: Gen. David G. Perkins: The Army Operating Concept
Definition According to the US Army, the definition of overmatch is "the concept where my (insert lethality system here) can willfully and without prejudice or luck defeat your (insert your protective system here)."
According to Raytheon, overmatch is a verb which means "to defeat threats at every level – strategic, tactical and technological."
According to Ben Barry, "overmatch is a very polite, clinical way of saying could be defeated.”
Example — AI versus human pilots AI agents are not subject to the physiological constraints of a human pilot, such as the danger of flying at low altitude, or the g-forces of the aircraft accelerations. Human pilots noted that the AI agents flew with fine motor control. In the 2020 AlphaDogfight Trials (see image to the right), the AI agents battled for the chance to dogfight an expert human pilot. The winning AI agent consistently defeated an expert human pilot. Theresa Hitchens (20 August 2020) AI Slays Top F-16 Pilot In DARPA Dogfight Simulation The AI systems are eventually to serve as wingmen for human commanders. Eric Tegler (20 August 2020) AI Just Won A Series Of Simulated Dogfights Against A Human F-16 Pilot, 5-0. What Does That Mean? DARPAtv (20 August 2020) AlphaDogfight Trials Final Event 5 hour live stream. The technology will be installed in actual aircraft by 2024.SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR. (09 September 2020) AI To Fly In Dogfight Tests By 2024: SecDef For "human-machine teaming". Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency—Our Research Col. Daniel Javorsek, USAF: Air Combat Evolution (ACE) "This shifts the human role from single platform operator to mission commander".Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr. (24 February 2020) DoD Adopts AI Ethics Principles — But How Will They Be Enforced?Tyler Rogoway (21 Sep 2020) The Air Force's Secret Next Gen Air Dominance Demonstrator Isn't What You Think It Is
Note: DoD's Joint AI Center (JAIC) has convened 100 online participants from 13 countries to discuss how to use AI in a way that is consonant with their national ethical principles, termed the 'AI Partnership for Defense' in 2020.Col. Christopher Holshek, USA Ret. (19 August 2020) Expanding Multi-Domain Operations to Win Moral Competition A recommendation —"integrate military-civilian physical and informational power"Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr. (16 Sep 2020) Military AI Coalition Of 13 Countries Meets On Ethics
One possible application is to elevate the role of human pilots to mission commanders, leaving AIs as wingmen to perform as high-skill operators of low-cost robotic craft.Jordi Bou (5 Mar 2021) Boeing's ‘“Loyal Wingman” makes maiden flight
History From 2017, after the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and the dismissal of the need for counter-insurgency for a second time, the US Army emphasized overmatch in their modernization effort.
In 2017 a task force was formed to modernize the Army. Its recommendation was to form the Army Futures Command, to engage in systematic development of capabilities to overmatch its adversaries.When activated, the #USArmy Futures Command will have the overarching objective to achieve clear overmatch in future conflicts, making Soldiers and units more lethal to win the nation's wars, then return home safely.
In 2021 the 40th Chief of Staff of the Army identifiedDevon Suits (6 May 2021) Army senior leaders seek sustained, consistent funding in new budget
Analysis Overmatch has been criticized as unsustainable in the long term and requiring immense investments in the military and cutting-edge technologies.
See also Air supremacy Cauldron Full-spectrum dominance OODA loop
References