The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.
Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote. However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count. Vermont was one of only three states, along with his native Ohio and neighboring Michigan, where Kasich won a county.
This was the only GOP primary contest that Trump won in 2016 that he would lose in 2024, by 4 points to Nikki Haley.
Polling Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 1, 2016Donald Trump32.34%John Kasich30.01%Marco Rubio19.08%Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27%Castleton University/Vermont Public Radio
Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118February 3–17, 2016Donald Trump32.4%Marco Rubio 16.9%Ted Cruz 10.5%John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1%
Results 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primaryCandidateVoteDelegates#%Donald Trump19,97432.528John Kasich18,53430.178Marco Rubio11,78119.180Ted Cruz5,9329.660Ben Carson2,5514.150Jeb Bush (withdrawn)1,1061.800Rand Paul (withdrawn)4230.690Chris Christie (withdrawn)3610.590Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)2120.350Rick Santorum (withdrawn)1640.270Write-ins3900.630Total valid votes61,428100%16
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.
Analysis Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests. Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%. Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.
Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.
See also 2016 Vermont Democratic presidential primary
References